Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[Kazmit]

Shear doesn't look like it'll be an issue for now...

[NDG]

Saved vis loop, nice inflow into the storms from the Caribbean. Slight circulation is all in the mid levels.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely see a good wave sharpening in the LL cumulus in the NW Carib. Sea. I don't think it will take much longer today and we see a surface LLC if this convection keeps up.

[Siker]

Looks like whatever the Euro is trying to develop is energy dragged North with this wave but left in the BoC, combined with some of Carlotta’s energy.

[TheStormExpert]

With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.

[stormlover2013]

Should be a invest no doubt

[EasyTiger]

GFS from last Sunday's 06Z run...not bad

[wxman57]

Euro ensembles say 8% chance of development next 3-5 days. GFS ensembles at 0%. It is more "blobby" today (that's a technical meteorological term). Something to keep an eye on, but not much model support.

[stormreader]

GFS from last Sunday's 06Z run...not bad

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_23.png

Not bad at all!

[stormreader]

With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.

Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.

[NDG]

Nice mid level circuation, it will be interesting if a surface circulation forms near this later today.

[tailgater]

With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.

Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.

I'll take that bet and you're gonna reget cuz I'm the best there's ...... Ha ha I'm sleep deprived.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah not much Euro Ensemble support for this as Wxman57 said. Here are the 00z Euro Ensembles through 72hrs. (excluding the longer range stuff)

[stormreader]

With shear decreasing in its path I’m surprised no model really develops this. 10% seems kind of low, I’d go with 20% for now on development chances. Looks Invest worthy if you ask me.

Think so, too. Looks impressive, but apparently all the numbers fed into the models used by the Mets say very little to no chance. NHC says 90% chance of no cyclone formation. That’s pretty strong. I guess if you were at the racetrack and you bet in favor of formation you would get 9-1 odds on your bet.

I'll take that bet and you're gonna reget cuz I'm the best there's ...... Ha ha I'm sleep deprived.

Don't blame you at all for that bet! You really like the look of that horse, and you don't get 9-1 everyday. Good luck!

[latitude_20]

Greetings from Tulum, Mexico. Day 4 of rolling thunder, pouring rain. 6 power outages in the last 2 hours. And they ask me why I drink.

But seriously, is it me or does this thing look like it should at least be an invest?

Lat20

[stormlover2013]

The nam is following the icon foot steps

[Siker]

ICON is more organized this run, sending a broad 1007mb TD into Matagorda Bay.

[Clearcloudz]

Could the GFS be right 2 weeks ago about a hurricane forming in the gulf??? Only time will tell....

Give me INVEST 92L already

[Nimbus]

The high cirrus clouds are streaming a little more slowly in the familiar concentric pattern that often indicates higher pressure might be developing mid gulf. Most of the trough circulation is likely still WNW of the shear induced convection.

[Haris]

the fact nam is going to icon and their entire camp makes me soo anxious ! model war !!!!