ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Following the blow up of convection it appears to have a WNW turn now.

[Twisted-core]

Just eyeballing maybe a surface low has been slowly organizing .

[cycloneye]

A large area of poorly-organized showers and thunderstorms located
about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some development of this system is possible
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday,
unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for
additional development while the system moves over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is likely to
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

It's struggling this evening, lost a lot of the convection it had from this afternoon.

[Nimbus]

Center of apparent circulation is moving WNW now closer to 10N -56w.
The convection is on the wane tonight but will likely flare up again so Barbados south could see some flash flood rains. The wind shear can pick up a lot of moisture from even a shallow surface low. Official forecast is still calling for shear Saturday, Belize might be the next area of concern if the low surface pressure persists to the western Caribbean?

[tailgater]

Certainly looks ominous enough, but nonexistent model support from operational/ensemble members. Not likely to be anything more than a tropical wave.

Models have been actually doing very poorly this season in regards to picking up on every Atlantic system we’ve had to date.

IHMO After some of the model updates over last couple years, seems the global models are not creating as many ‘’model-storms’ but also aren’t picking up on some the smaller and less obvious systems. That being said I’d be surprised if this system does much, some needed rain?

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated. This disturbance is moving westward at about 15 mph
and is forecast to move through the Windward Islands on Saturday,
where it could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Ntxw]

99L did the usual pulsing the past couple of days but it never really consolidated well enough to really take off.

[floridasun78]

this invest never got big push to be td it try but no luck islands will get good rain for weekend

[GCANE]

Hot Tower swarm underway.

[Weather150]

502
ABNT20 KNHC 172311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles north of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[TheStormExpert]

It's dead! Or is it?