WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/58b88bC


https://imgur.com/BzK6Arc
looks a lower to-mid vort atm imo, upperlevels likely has nothing.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 142.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 141.0E, APPROXIMATELY 920
NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 170018Z ASCAT PASS SHOW PERSISTENT CONVECTION
PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN ELONGATED REGION OF SHARP TROUGHING. VWS
REMAINS LOW (5-15 KNOTS) WITH BROAD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENABLING STRONG
UL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-29
C) IN THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 140.1E TO 8.1N 130.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N
141.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 139.8E, APPROXIMATELY 730NM EAST OF
DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND
A 171224Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PERSISTENT MASS OF
CONVECTION ABOVE A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC. DESPITE SOME HIGH (25-30
KTS) VWS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WESTWARD UL OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH EXHAUST TO OFFSET THE SHEAR. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
ALL PREDICT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT
TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHERS, CALLING FOR AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181430Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I believe that the GFS may be too bullish in the short term, but these models actually show the potential of the Philippine Sea. It's 2018 and you all know how intense the season has been. Not saying this could ramp up all the way to a cat 5, but it shows that we're not having a repeat of 2017. I won't speculate on intensity just yet, because there are many variables at play. Right now, TD 98C has organized pretty well. The warm, moist environment is offsetting the wind shear.

And another bonkers model is the Swiss HD model. I won't rule this out either, even if this may seem absurd right now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TD
Issued at 19:30 UTC, 17 November 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 17 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°50' (6.8°)
E136°05' (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°30' (6.5°)
E134°00' (134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/xEVtHBY


https://imgur.com/Qnb0Cjs



https://imgur.com/Nkoaesg

https://www.windfinder.com/report/palau ... babelthuap

98C INVEST 181118 0000 7.2N 135.0E CPAC 20 1003

[xtyphooncyclonex]

50km ASCAT pass indicating 30-knot barbs



This 25km pass shows some 35-knots

[vortextracker]

130Z was maybe open lpa to east? .

https://imgur.com/yxLPeRl

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/Fu7vSRx
Easy to see the shear affect on the satpic.

https://imgur.com/G8rhT8K

98C INVEST 181118 0600 6.3N 134.1E CPAC 25 1004

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 6.3N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.3N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 6.6N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 7.1N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 7.9N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.8N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 9.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.4N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.3N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 6.4N 133.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM
EAST OF DAVAO CITY,PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z
AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (TORAJI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[stormstrike]

WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
512 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 180713Z NOAA-19 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR (PTRO) SHOWING STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 32 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTERN STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48
UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SST (29-30C) AND
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO, HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING OVER
WATER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MINDANAO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR.
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPREAD OF 260NM AT TAU 120,
HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS
POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. TD 33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 120 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/ZFho4pV




https://imgur.com/WOT6fO7

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

typos

33C INVEST 181118 1200 6.6N 132.9E WPAC 30 1000

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
512 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 180713Z NOAA-19 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR (PTRO) SHOWING STEADY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 32 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TD
33W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
EASTERN STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48
UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM SST (29-30C) AND
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AFTER TAU 48, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO, HOWEVER, ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE TRACK REMAINING OVER
WATER NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MINDANAO. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR.
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH A SPREAD OF 260NM AT TAU 120,
HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS
POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. TD 33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 120 UNDER MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/t65Xh4C



https://imgur.com/EUl49Wr

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 779
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF AN EXPOSED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A 190039Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A
BROAD, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER
100 NM TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KTS DUE
TO THE HIGH SHEAR AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION, WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS). STRONG (25-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS HINDERING INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS IMPINGE ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN THOUGH
EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN SECTOR IS STRONG. TD 33W IS
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEASTERN ASIA, LEADING TO A WEAKENING IN THE CENTER OF STR, AND
A RE-ORIENTING OF TWO LOBES OF THE STR TO EITHER SIDE. TD 33W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE HIGH VWS WILL LIMIT THE NEAR-
TERM INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL DESPITE WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 36, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER NORTHEAST MINDANAO. FORECAST INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KTS
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AS TD 33W TRACKS THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS AND WARM WATERS IN BETWEEN. AFTER TAU 48, THE WARM WATERS OF
THE SULU SEA AND DECREASING VWS WILL ALLOW TD 33W TO INTENSIFY ONCE
MORE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF
165 NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING
TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR, WHICH WILL BUILD IN TO
THE NORTH OF TD 33W. THE SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS IS 220 NM AT TAU 120.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM
PREDICTS A POLEWARD TURN AT TAU 96, WHILE GFS AND HWRF NOW SHOW A
POLEWARD TURN AS WELL, BUT NOT UNTIL TAU 120, WHEN TD 33W WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR HAVE MADE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM. TD 33W WILL INTENSIFY
TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 96 UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTERWARDS, A COLD, DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL SURGE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO CAUSE WEAKENING. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/91wzQTD


https://imgur.com/pI3EpAn

Atm ens probs thinking this thing will never go under 1000mb in the south china sea crossing.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
679 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ELONGATED,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT AND A LARGER, MORE
PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY. A 190729Z F-16 SSMIS 37H GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS WEAKLY CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION AND GENERALLY BROAD, SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED LLCC. TD 33W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WARM SST (28-
29C). DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED FLAT AT T1.5 (25
KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS. TD 33W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 33W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. TD 33W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT CONTINUES
TO STRUGGLE IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 175NM
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING
TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR. THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VIETNAM. HOWEVER, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A FLATTER TRACK AND IS POSITIONED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TD
33W SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96 UNDER
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OF VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN