Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro bullish once again.

Yeah it brings up a strengthening system maybe across Plaquemines and St Bernard Pariahes and then Hancock/Harrison Counties, MS. Not a major on the lower resolution, but maybe formidable? Icon/German I think is over toward Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Co’s, FL. CMC and GFs are mostly east of there. Looks like NE Gulf maybe under what appears to be the setup would be at most risk (say LA/MS border to Big Bend). Could be that trends take it one way or the other from there. But we might have something to watch developing on our doorstep over the next 5-6 days.

993mb and nearly 60kts:

[GCANE]

Solid anticyclone already anchored in over the NE GOM.
Forecast has it persisting into the estimated time of genesis around late Wednesday.
ULL will be anchored in on the east end of the TexMex border.

[GCANE]

SREF has a surface low developing over northern Florida Tuesday.
This may be likely; particularly, if strong popups fire up.
Foecast has it meandering over water and land.

[GCANE]

GFS has the low developing over the Smokies later today and ramping to a warm core over the NE GOM into the end of the week.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1147802793710956544

[northjaxpro]

Yeah indeed GCANE, the 06Z GFS just out has the surface Low emerging into Apalachee Bay, in the vicinity of Apalachicola, by 00Z Thursday (early Wednesday evening) at 1010 mb.

[cycloneye]

Watch the front.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1147800506410131456

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States is
forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where a broad low pressure area will likely form in a few days.
Thereafter, upper-level winds support some development of this
system while it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast
through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

This famous chaser will not bite.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1147831307088515072

[NDG]

Right when I thought yesterday after the 18z GFS we were finally seeing the Euro and GFS come together they have fallen apart once again. The GFS goes back to the idea of the vorticity briefly going into the NE GOM, staying disorganized before being pulled back up by another eastern US trough and a mid level ridging staying to the east of FL and not push it west towards the central gulf coast.
The Euro has stronger ridging to the north and east of the potential system thus staying over the GOM longer and a track more towards the central gulf coast.

[northjaxpro]

Also, to complicate matters further, the potential system could get stuck in a COL, an area of weak steering, for much of this upcoming week. This system indeed could meander around in Apalachee Bay /Northeast GOM region for most of the week. Could see flood potential for some areas as the week progresses

Complex situation. It is quite possible this system may not get far enough south into the GOM to develop. The vorticity could be so elongated in which it can not consolidate a center and also due to land proximity. Lots to look for in the next couple of days for sure!

[NDG]

Interesting that the majority of the Euro's ensembles side with the GFS's solution.

[AdamFirst]

It wouldn't be hurricane season if we didn't have our first model war.

Welcome back, everyone!

[Aric Dunn]

Must keep a eye on the structure of the feature today. If it stays more symmetrical then the euro solution is plausible. If it starts to elongate out then chances of a weaker possibly a split ststem like gfs.

[Aric Dunn]

And right now yesterdays 12z Euro location and overall structure is dead on to what we see with the feature right now. currently symmetrical and diving sse. As it approaches the coast tomorrow we will know more. But we also have to watch for where deep convection fires as that will likely be where a center forms. So something redeveloping well south and away from the main vorticity is quite possible in this case as it approaches the water.

[GCANE]

Wow! I don't think I have seen the GOM this juiced before.
6000 CAPE in the forecasted development area.

[johngaltfla]

Local mets are bullish on this which means we get more of what we don't need if it drifts further south than projected; rain. Ugh.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I saw that a bit earlier myself GCANE wrt to CAPE down there. That is mighty impressive. The GOM is like a huge area of dynamite right now, just waiting for something to get it perculating. This is concerning, if this potential tropical entity really finds a sweet spot for developing later this week. Near 90 degree ssts and UL conditions look pretty good with an UL ridge in the Northern Gulf currently. It could become a rather formidable tropical cyclone by end of next week.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Yeah, I saw that a bit earlier myself GCANE. That is mighty impressive. The GOM is like a huge area of dynamite right now, just waiting for something to get it perculating. This is concerning, if this potential tropical entity really finds a sweet spot for developing later this week. Near 90 degree ssts and UL conditions look pretty good with an UL ridge in the Northern Gulf currently. It could become a rather formidable tropical cyclone by end of next week.

This is also why I mentioned it is important where the convection develops before the main vorticity from the systems approaches the coast. I suspect we will see a large area of convection develop offshore ahead of the arrival which tends to lead to something developing within the convection... this would speed up the time frame and possibly allow it to get farther south and offshore.

[toad strangler]

This famous chaser will not bite.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1147831307088515072

Josh is a "Red Meat" kinda guy and shows great disdain for run of the mill tropical systems to the point that he taunts them