ATL: JERRY - Models

[jlauderdal]

1025 high to the north of ten at 120h, lets see how the rest of the run goes

[chris_fit]

EURO at 5 days.... pretty weak

[sma10]

12z HWRF is the only model that sees significant strengthening, and is by far the most southern track

[Nimbus]

12Z HWRF goes south of PR and Hispaniola as a strong hurricane.

I wonder what parameters were fed into the model to get such a drastic change in solution?
This far out a single model run might have about a 5% chance of verifying.
HWRF hasn't done particularly well this year so maybe just an over amplified ridge in the model that is less likely real world?

[sma10]

12Z HWRF goes south of PR and Hispaniola as a strong hurricane.

I wonder what parameters were fed into the model to get such a drastic change in solution?
This far out a single model run might have about a 5% chance of verifying.
HWRF hasn't done particularly well this year so maybe just an over amplified ridge in the model that is less likely real world?

Yeah, no clue what it's seeing, an outlier for sure. And a terrible track

[socplay02]

12Z HWRF goes south of PR and Hispaniola as a strong hurricane.

I wonder what parameters were fed into the model to get such a drastic change in solution?
This far out a single model run might have about a 5% chance of verifying.
HWRF hasn't done particularly well this year so maybe just an over amplified ridge in the model that is less likely real world?

Wasn't it one of the few that had Dorian correctly as a stronger storm on a more eastern track early on though, or am I confusing models?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z HWRF goes south of PR and Hispaniola as a strong hurricane.

I wonder what parameters were fed into the model to get such a drastic change in solution?
This far out a single model run might have about a 5% chance of verifying.
HWRF hasn't done particularly well this year so maybe just an over amplified ridge in the model that is less likely real world?

Yeah, no clue what it's seeing, an outlier for sure. And a terrible track

It probably makes the adjustments in the 18Z run

[GeneratorPower]

Nothing in the 12Z Euro run would make me think changes are coming to the track forecast at 5pm. NHC current forecast is for a hurricane at day 5 position.

[drezee]

12z HWRF with a wildly different solution: Category 5 in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091712/hwrf_mslp_uv850_10L_43.png

Not quite a 5...but that would be an unmitigated disaster! Either you plow into DR....or you have a Cat 4 heading toward the highest ocean heat content in the Western Hemisphere. Hard no on either...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The HWRF is an extreme outlier in terms of both track and intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.

[chris_fit]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.



https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

Most are weak, but that's a pretty significant shift W for sure

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.



https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

Most are weak, but that's a pretty significant shift W for sure

The ensembles in general are all weak. Wouldn't read too much into the intensity. The west trend in the ECMWF ensembles is definitely noteworthy. We'll need to watch to see if there's any more shifts west on the 18z.

[LarryWx]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.

https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

1. I count about 7 hits from TD 10 on the CONUS on his 12Z Euro ens, which is similar to the 0Z. So, even I admit it isn't a done deal yet despite my thinking the CONUS won't be hit.

2. Right now, the followup wave interests me more with regard to the CONUS. At day 10 on your maps, the members in the SE Bahamas as well as east and south of there are actually from that followup wave. During Sep 28-Oct 2 as the big ridge rebuilds, the 12Z Euro ens has several big hits in the US, including one in the NE US and several in FL. It also has several strong members still in the Gulf 10/2.

[chris_fit]

[sma10]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.



https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

Also interesting that the Euro and UK both insist that while TD10 decides exactly what to do around the Bahamas, that another system tracks into the SouthEast Caribbean

[drezee]

Yes, i know it is only one ensemble track...but I see the Irma 2.0 track

[LarryWx]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.



https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

Also interesting that the Euro and UK both insist that while TD10 decides exactly what to do around the Bahamas, that another system tracks into the SouthEast Caribbean

That's a wave that is now west of C Verde and is in my mind the potentially more dangerous one for the western basin per model guidance tracks/timing.

[sma10]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.

https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

1. I count about 7 hits from TD 10 on the CONUS on his 12Z Euro ens, which is similar to the 0Z. So, even I admit it isn't a done deal yet despite my thinking the CONUS won't be hit.

2. Right now, the followup wave interests me more with regard to the CONUS. At day 10 on your maps, the members in the SE Bahamas as well as east and south of there are actually from that followup wave. During Sep 28-Oct 2 as the big ridge rebuilds, the 12Z Euro ens has several big hits in the US, including one in the NE US and several in FL. It also has several strong members still in the Gulf 10/2.

Hmmm, Larry ... I said we're overdue for a late Sept Cape Verde lol. Maybe while everyone's looking at TD10, the other wave comes along like a thief in the night. /s

[Aric Dunn]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.

https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

1. I count about 7 hits from TD 10 on the CONUS on his 12Z Euro ens, which is similar to the 0Z. So, even I admit it isn't a done deal yet despite my thinking the CONUS won't be hit.

2. Right now, the followup wave interests me more with regard to the CONUS. At day 10 on your maps, the members in the SE Bahamas as well as east and south of there are actually from that followup wave. During Sep 28-Oct 2 as the big ridge rebuilds, the 12Z Euro ens has several big hits in the US, including one in the NE US and several in FL. It also has several strong members still in the Gulf 10/2.

Looking out past 3 to 5 days is silly. at 5 days 75 percent have not turned. thats important.