EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Adrian Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...ADRIAN CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 109.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES



Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Adrian's satellite presentation has shown little change in
organization since earlier today. Central convection has been
waxing and waning, and the eye is not very well defined. Some
banding features are evident and the upper-level outflow is still a
bit impeded to the north of the system. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from both SAB and TAFB have not changed since the last
advisory cycle, so the intensity estimate remains 70 kt.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Adrian
should remain fairly low for the next day or so. Therefore some
additional strengthening is forecast in the short term. By 48
hours, increasing easterly shear, associated with an
upper-tropospheric high building to the north of Adrian, is
anticipated. This, coupled with cooler ocean waters, should cause
weakening. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical guidance and the dynamical model consensus.

Adrian continues to plod slowly westward, or at about 280/5 kt. A
weak mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone
should maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion until late
in the forecast period. In 4 to 5 days, the ridge weakens and
Adrian's motion should slow even further. Another factor in the
track late in the period is the possible interaction of Adrian
or its remnant low with another system to the east. The details of
this interaction are quite uncertain at this time, and the official
track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.6N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 15.8N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.1N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 16.4N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 16.8N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 17.1N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 17.3N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 17.3N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cheezyWXguy]

Think Adrian has more potential than it’s letting on. Nothing craz obviously, but it’s not often you see dual eyewall hot towers in a storm that doesn’t strengthen. If it can keep that going cat2 is possible.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

01E ADRIAN 230629 0600 15.4N 109.5W EPAC 75 982

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Stuck upshear and I still don’t think it’s not vulnerable to dry air intrusions.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1

Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Early morning AMSR2 microwave images of Adrian revealed a
well-defined eye signature in the 89 GHz and 37 GHz channels,
although a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level centers
suggests some vortex tilt with height. In conventional satellite
imagery, the deepest inner-core convection is confined to the
southern and eastern portions of the circulation, while cloud tops
have recently warmed to the northwest of the center. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and
the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory.

Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear through this
evening could allow for some additional strengthening. Then, Adrian
is forecast to encounter stronger easterly shear as it moves over
gradually cooler waters, which is likely to induce weakening by this
weekend and early next week. The official NHC forecast lies slightly
above the IVCN consensus aid in the near term, then shows more rapid
weakening beyond 48 h. Unfavorable environmental conditions should
make it difficult for Adrian to sustain organized convection beyond
72 h, and Adrian is forecast to be a remnant low at days 4 and 5.

Adrian is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. This
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days
with little change to the overall steering pattern. The center of
Adrian was relocated slightly farther north based on the early
morning microwave data, and the updated NHC forecast lies to the
right of the previous one in the direction of the TVCE/HCCA aids.
The latest track guidance also keeps Adrian on a more steady
westward course through the forecast period. As a result, this
forecast is somewhat faster than previous issuances at days 3-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 16.0N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.2N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 17.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.1N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z 18.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

DG eye embedded in LG. Overall structure is much more conducive for intensification than earlier. Decreased wind shear has allowed a more symmetrical CDO that can fend off dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 291824
TCSENP

A. 01E (ADRIAN)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 16.1N

D. 110.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A
DT OF 4.5 AFTER A -0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 01, 2023062918, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1104W, 75, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 15, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023

A ragged eye briefly emerged in visible satellite imagery today, but
it has once again become obscured by the central dense overcast of
Adrian. It appears that the hurricane is struggling with some drier
mid-level air in the surrounding environment. A dry slot is wrapping
around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and
earlier SSMIS microwave data showed a weakness in the inner-core
convection around the eyewall. The 18 UTC subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T4.5/77 kt, while the
objective ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 65-70 kt range. A
blend of these data support keeping the initial intensity at 75 kt
for this advisory.

The vertical wind shear is forecast to gradually increase over
Adrian during the next several days, which is expected to induce a
weakening trend that is supported by all the available intensity
guidance. The official NHC forecast remains near or just above the
latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Based on the latest GFS and
ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery, the updated NHC forecast
shows Adrian becoming post-tropical at day 3, as it appears likely
to lose all deep convection over cooler waters and within a drier
and stronger shear environment. While the official forecast carries
a remnant low through day 5, it could be near dissipation by the end
of the period.

The track of Adrian today has been to the right of previous
forecasts, and its initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.
The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward
during the next few days while being steered by a high-pressure
ridge to its northeast. The updated NHC forecast has again been
adjusted to the right of the previous one, and it generally lies
between the TVCE and HCCA aids. As the shallow remnant low spins
down later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn more
westward within the low-level flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Kingarabian]

Has a chance to RI or begin to fall apart in the next 24 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0 inbound.

[Sciencerocks]

85 knots in my opinion

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 300027
TCSENP

A. 01E (ADRIAN)

B. 30/0000Z

C. 16.5N

D. 111.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT=4.5
INCLUDING 0.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=5.0. PT=5.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 01, 202306300000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1650N, 11090W, , 2, 90, 2, 970, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SK, VI, 3, 5050 /////, , , GOES18, CSC, T,

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 01, 2023063000, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1110W, 80, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 15, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,

Given ADT and TAFB, this is likely a bit conservative.