NATL: IMELDA - Models

[LarryWx]

0z canadian shifted left to a Myrtle Beach, SC landfall (was out to sea at 12z)
https://i.imgur.com/Y7qbWfX.png

0z gfs
https://i.postimg.cc/rFc2bg4P/floop-gfs-2025092500-850hv-watl.gif

Humberto dragging 94L away on the 0Z GFS makes sense since Humberto is 25 mb stronger.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro, just like the 0Z CMC, hits Georgetown, SC, on Monday evening though it isn’t as strong (989 mb per WxBell).

So, of major 0Z ops, Euro and CMC hit Georgetown while UKMET, GFS, and Icon stay well offshore.

[Stratton23]

EPS has some pretty bizarre solutions for 94L lol

[LarryWx]

EPS has some pretty bizarre solutions for 94L lol

The 0Z EPS is by far the most ominous for the SE US (including some that get into the Gulf) with a whopping ~75% of the members hitting or skimming. Some of these are very weak (not full TCs) while ~1/3 of the hits are strong.

[weeniepatrol]

0z euro not only landfalls this into the carolinas but it also deepens Humberto to 935mb or so

I hereby declare the season cancel to be canceled.

[kevin]

All 00z hurricane models develop 94L and make it a hurricane (even a MH with the exception of HMON) which threatens the US in the 4 - 7 day range. Humberto might have a higher peak, but 94L might steal the attention as a potential US threat. And of course it'll get the I-name if it develops.

HWRF


HMON


HAFS-B


HAFS-A

[kevin]

06z ICON has Humberto a bit more to the east than 00z, but not enough to prevent significant shear on 94L. 94L will most likely still become a hurricane if the run would continue (similar to 00z), but would also get pulled away from the US together with Humberto. Note that most hurricane models already have 94L at MH intensity and even almost at the US coast at this time frame in which case the impact of Humberto would be significantly less. So it all depends on how fast 94L moves and organizes.

[kevin]

06z intensity and track guidance. Ranges from a weak TS clearly OTS (AVNI) to a cat 5 over the Bahamas and on a collision course with the US (HFAI aka HAFS-A). Let's take a latter with a grain of salt for now.

[ronjon]

HAFS-A develops 94l into a CAT 5 that threatens SE FL. Fortunately it's the furthest west of the guidance models. Very complex situation but Euro ensembles shift west is disturbing.

[kevin]

06z GFS also shifts west. Less impact from Humberto, cat 1 landfall near Charleston, SC.

[GCANE]

Looks like 06Z GFS has correctly initialized this. A rare occurrence.
Almost all models now have a Charleston-area landfall.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1971152756242034795

[blp]

HAFS-A develops 94l into a CAT 5 that threatens SE FL. Fortunately it's the furthest west of the guidance models. Very complex situation but Euro ensembles shift west is disturbing.

Another view of that run. That is some ramp up.

[BobHarlem]

A bunch o' models:

top to bottom, l t or
0z Google AI, 0z Google Ensembles, 6z GFS,
0z Euro, 0z Canadian, 0z HWRF
0z HMON, 0z HAFS-A, 0z HAFS B

[BobHarlem]

Longer range the GFS pulls the remnants back out into the Atlantic. The Euro also does, redevelops it then makes another landfall in the Outer Banks.

ex 12z Euro
landfall, then comes back out with a second landfall on the OBX.

[Teban54]

Longer range the GFS pulls the remnants back out into the Atlantic. The Euro also does, redevelops it then makes another landfall in the Outer Banks.

ex 12z Euro
landfall, then comes back out with a second landfall on the OBX.
https://i.postimg.cc/fT4dRzkP/ecmwf-mslp-wind-seus-fh114-324.gif

This will surpass Ivan as the most confusing regeneration if it happens.

[Teban54]

ICON is now practically the only model with a Fujiwhara and without a CONUS landfall, it seems.

[boca]

SE Florida is looking better even though we were never a threat from 94L hopefully it will stay on the weaker side for those in the Carolina’s.

[BobHarlem]

This init point

[

vs this



I do see the low level swirl there, but the MLC is going bonkers south of Hispaniola.

[Teban54]

This init point

[https://i.imgur.com/Fjg9qzc.png

vs this

https://i.postimg.cc/KzPj6jSs/20392897.gif

I do see the low level swirl there, but the MLC is going bonkers south of Hispaniola.

The init point actually seems fairly close to the low-level vort, which you can see north of DR. The key question is whether it reforms further south... Which can and do happen sometimes, but not always.