Major Hurricane in New York...

[Hurricaneman]

The tchp this year is hot enough to hold a cat5 intill 37 north or just off the outter banks. A fast moving cat5 would make it to New york as a weak cat4. You went to know the fastest way to make America go from the most powerful country on earth to a third world country. Thats it...A cat4 hurricane into new york would send America back 100 years.

Maybe further back than that

[KWT]

I think Karl last year should have been a wake-up call,as should have Lisa.

Lisa became a hurricane over 40 north last year,which is roughly around the same latitude as New york with winds of 65kts,here is a fax chart showing the system,not to mention the SSt's were below 25C in that area,yet it managed to keep itslef going thanks to a massie convective burst near its center and on the southern half the system:

http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archi ... 041002.gif

it retained its tropical features until it was about 500 miles south-west of the U.K!

and Karl,although becoming extra-tropical at the time,had windspeeds of 80kts at the same latitudes,and bare in mind both those storms are in the Mid-atlantic,imagine if the strong cat-4 Karl went up the gulf stream,it would probably remain as a weak cat-3.

[HurricaneGirl]

What about the Great Hurricane of 1938 that hit the New York area?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That storm was also undergoing extratropical transition, and seems to have been a cat. 3 (maybe even a borderline 4) at landfall. No only was it zipping along at an ungodly speed, but it (like Michael in 2000) was phasing with a shortwave to it's west (roughly). Such a system, in which both cold core and warm core characteristics are present, is one of the hardest forecasting dilemmas that a met. will ever face. In some cases what basically happens is that the cold core elements (i.e. the shortwave) provide the mechanism to "unlock" the latent heat and moist contain trapped in the tropical rain clouds thus off setting, or even in some rare cases reversing to a good degree, the normally expected weakening trend as the storm moves over cooler waters, or in extreme case (Hazel in 1954 comes to mind) even over land for several hours!


In recent years a gray/white line has started to be used to show this trasition stage, while the storm still contained at least 75 mph sustained winds:





Hybridstorm_November2001

[SunnyFla]

Don't forget Hurricane Donna which reached the Northeast Coast as a CAT 2. I remember it closed the stock market for 3 days in September of 1960. Here is article from Sun-Sentinel about the damage from Donna.

"Donna batters Florida, entire U.S. East Coast

Sun-Sentinel


After swiping the Florida Keys and striking land near Fort Myers on Sept. 10, 'Deadly Donna' did not travel along the usual path that storms of her magnitude usually take.

Instead of heading back to the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico, Donna took on the unusual distinction of being the only hurricane of record to produce hurricane-force winds throughout the U.S. East Coast from Florida, the Mid-Atlantic states and New England.

The hurricane's center passed through 60 miles west of Miami, sparing Broward County. This time, Broward residents only experienced 80 mile-per-hour winds as Donna's fringes passed by, causing a few trees and signs to tumble down.

Unfortunately, residents in the Florida Keys fared worse, having to endure 13-foot storm surges and 150 mile-per-hour winds. Bridges were washed away and homes resembled splintered matchsticks for miles. The Fort Lauderdale News reported that the Tampa Weather Bureau predicted statewide property damage to reach $2 billion.

Donna continued her romp through the East Coast as a Category 2 storm, whipping every state from South Carolina to New York before slamming into New England on Sept. 12. Wind gusts of 130 miles-per-hour were recorded in Rhode Island and a terrifyingly large 100-mile-wide-eye later crossed Long Island.

Hurricane Donna was the fifth-strongest hurricane of record to hit the U.S., causing 50 deaths, $387 million in property damage and affected over 50 million people according to the National Hurricane Center."

IT CAN HAPPEN!

[Scorpion]

100 mile wide eye?? Geez... I wonder how big the circulation was. If only we had sat pics of that.

[Trader Ron]

I had Long Island Sound in my house with Donna. I lived next to a Coast Guard station, and i still remember the Hurricane Flags going up at 11 PM, the night before it's arrival the following morning.

[OuterBanker]

Floydbuster. Could you kindly have your hurricane originate somewhere else. Thanks.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

And here Donna is:





Donna was still a cat. 1 hurricane all the way into central Maine. Which is ever more impressive when you think that the eye spend at lot of time either on shore, or just off shore for the better part of two days prior to it's final landfall.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[isobar]

Wind gusts of 130 miles-per-hour were recorded in Rhode Island and a terrifyingly large 100-mile-wide-eye later crossed Long Island.

A 100 mile wide eye sounds highly unlikely, if not virtually impossible. Perry, where are you, man?? Got any verification on this?

[Astro_man92]

Derek Orrt, who I count as a good friend, mentioned what horror would be done if a major hurricane (3, 4, or 5) would hit New York.

I have put together the nightmare image of a category 4 hitting in New York, but For this scenario, let's name this Hurricane Beryl.

But, many say: NO WAY A STORM COULD STAY A CATEGORY 4 THAT LONG! Well, let's say this was the track of Hurricane Beryl:


Landfall:



TALKING POINTS:

Originally expected to hit Cape Cod as a 115 mph storm, nobody in NYC is prepared.

Surge is 15-20 feet on Coney Island.

Storm crosses New York Bay and makes second landfall near: Long Island, NY still holding at 135 mph sustained.

Storm then moves over the east river (DIRECTLY OVER THE BROOKLIN BRIDGE).

The eye moves directly over Chinatown, and the eastern eyewall moves over the city. Winds of 135-140 mph with gusts 160-165 mph occur in the eye and the eyewall.

Beryl's eyewall collapses around Manhattan and the storm weakens to a category 1 only four hours after landfall.

WELL...REAL OR NOT...THAT COULD HAPPEN...

It took me an hour to make this post...so let's start a good topic on this.

oh ya if a cat 4 hurricane hit NYC than you are not only talking about the grouns level winds you have to talk about the flight level winds to because of all the sky scrapers up there the wind is stronger right than he wind and debris might be more of a problem if a cat 4 or any major hurricane hit NYC

[Trader Ron]

Wind gusts of 130 miles-per-hour were recorded in Rhode Island and a terrifyingly large 100-mile-wide-eye later crossed Long Island.

A 100 mile wide eye sounds highly unlikely, if not virtually impossible. Perry, where are you, man?? Got any verification on this?

I read in a few books that Donna had a 100 mile eye. Also did a Google search and they mention the same thing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How on earth can a cat3 have a 100 mile wide eye?

[Normandy]

If that was the case NYC should have been in the outer edge of the eye.

[Hurricaneman]

How on earth can a cat3 have a 100 mile wide eye?

It happened a few years ago where there was a cat 3 with an 80 mile diameter eye, so it can happen, and remember how big Isabels eye was

[Astro_man92]

How big was Frances's

[Trader Ron]

How on earth can a cat3 have a 100 mile wide eye?

Well, I guess the books and Google are wrong.

[KWT]

Frances eye was upto about 70NM across just before making landfall.

[Astro_man92]

huh I heard that it was only 45 miles wide

[Hurricaneman]

me too