NHC FAILED TERREBONNE PARISH COASTAL RESIDENTS!!!!!

[inotherwords]

How many times do people have to explain it to you, LSU? Sure go ahead and selectively pick the ONE post that only marginally supports your point, and ignore the rest. That just makes so much sense.

You're in serious denial.

[LSU]

TS warning issued 48 hours before landfall -- 12 hours before those areas on the SELA coast began feeling TS winds.

10-15ft surge is what meteorologists in NOLA are saying for those three parishes. NOLA itself experienced 5-10 surge, avg. being 8 ft.

[vbhoutex]

TS warning issued 48 hours before landfall -- 12 hours before those areas on the SELA coast began feeling TS winds.

10-15ft surge is what meteorologists in NOLA are saying for those three parishes. NOLA itself experienced 5-10 surge, avg. being 8 ft.

You are a good repeater and that is it. You have lost any credibility you may have had by lying in your profile, which only you can change, and you have yet to provide any documentation whereas others have. I suggest you give up your bashing quest now or face the consequences of the same. Yes, I am warning you as a staff member of this site to provide documentation now or stop!!!

[x-y-no]

TS warning issued 48 hours before landfall -- 12 hours before those areas on the SELA coast began feeling TS winds.

At 4pm CDT on thursday, (the time you are claiming TS force winds were being experienced in SELA) the storm was centered at 25.8N 89.5W - that's 200NM south of the extreme southern end of SELA. The TS windfield was 200 statute miles.

So once again, I'm not about to believe your clearly biased impression absent solid documentation.

10-15ft surge is what meteorologists in NOLA are saying for those three parishes. NOLA itself experienced 5-10 surge, avg. being 8 ft.

What meteorologists? Can you give me a link? The more you refuse to lookat the evidence so many of us are offering you, the less I'm inclined to trust your claims without solid evidence to back them up.

And please explain to me ... if there were no adequate warning in these areas, why were there mandatory evacuations?

[HoumaLa]

This is moa on this subject. In lower terrebone parish there were vol . evacuations. Friday night about 9.30 there were man. evacuations. The problem lays there. People of the lower parish know when they are going to flood. The parish pres. is where i lay the blame. He should have seen that the storm would not be far off of our coast (as the crow flys) and should have gotten people out before the surge came and the levees broke. They went from house to house to tell people that the levees were going over and or breaking there should have been a man. evacuation. Another problem is the levee system was and is not mantain .The surge came up people got flooded out. I stayed up all that night listen to the police scanner could not belevie what i heard.

Not everyone know how bad its going to be. I myself was suprised by the weather.

[hookemfins]

10-15ft surge is what meteorologists in NOLA are saying for those three parishes. NOLA itself experienced 5-10 surge, avg. being 8 ft.

Did you read the part about storm surge and costal flooding?? If so then use common sense.

A storm surge of 15-20 ft east of the center. Mississippi and Alabama was expecting a surge of around 3-5 ft. NO was closer to the center so it would make sense that a higher surge would be experianced in NO. I would say the 8 ft avg you posted would fall under that assumption.

Also as of the 11pm Thursday evening forecast advisory the 12 ft seas had increased to 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 250SW 300NW.

[x-y-no]

Best working source of objective data I can find is station ILDL1 - Isle Dernieres, LA, located in open water south of SELA.

The anemometer at this platform is located 19.2 meters above sea level, which means one should reduce the observed speed by a bit. But for argument's sake, let's just use the observed speed.

Here's the wind speed chart:



As you can see, the sustained wind at 20:00gmt of the 22nd (the time you claim sustained TS winds were being experienced in SELA) at this station over open water south of SELA was only 28 to 30 knots - below TS strength.

EDIT: Also note, the sustained winds never reached anywhere near hurricane strength.

[HurryKane]

T I've already realized that Katrina's death toll will likely cost Max Mayfield his job.....even though the warnings, forecasts, and advisories were excellent; there was no reason for so many to die. The hurricane advisories during Katrina.....and during Rita were as accurate as you can get, yet still NHC gets blamed, second guessed, and in all probability these rants and protests will end up costing some (in addition to Dr Mayfield) very competent and professional meteorologists their careers

PW

I just can't see how anyone could call for Mayfield's head over Katrina when he took the steps to call officials on Friday night and BEG them to issue mandatory evacuations. There's not a step he could have taken further than that in trying to get people to understand, unless people really think Mayfield should have gone door to door with some Ross Perot-like pie charts explaining that they will die if they don't leave.

Call for the head of local governments and/or media outlets if they didn't get that word out properly. There's just nothing more he or anyone at the NHC could have done.

[brunota2003]

Let me ask you this:

Have you ever heard of an area under a TS warning getting a 15 foot storm surge? The SELA coastline probably is put under a TS warning 3-5 times a year and rarely does anything come of it. Worse case scenario you'll get something like Cindy 05 (which the NHC failed LA on again, underestimating her strength) and have strong winds and a 5 foot surge.

If tidal surge is what causes the most damage and kills the most people, shouldn't you emphasize the surge over wind in warnings? A hurricane warning should not extend to what winds you'll receive, but rather, what surge you'll get. Even if that had been the case, the NHC would have been wrong this time, as they only forecast HALF of what was the actual surge from Rita. And even if they had been right with the surge, they were still wrong with the wind. SELA received hurricane winds. Parts of TX that were under hurricane warnings didn't even receive TS winds.

For the poster who says you'll get gusts to 109 in a TS, you've not followed many storms. The NHC almost always over-estmates what the winds will be when the storm comes ashore. A storm like Rita comes ashore with official sustained 120 usually means you'll have sustained 80 with a few gusts maybe reaching 115-120 in isolated spots. Just look at the highest gusts recorded from Rita. None reached 120. And that is the norm and practice of the NHC.

Well why dont we all pull the pin on the complain departments grenade, jeeze, a HURRICANE is NOT A FREAKING POINT, PLUS Storm Surge is not a hurricane, it is simplely PART of a hurricane, so you cant just simplely issue a hurricane warning for 10 feet of surge, thats like saying TD 9 is going to cause four feet of surge, so lets all issue a TS warning... and yes I have heard of 10 foot storm surges with only TS winds...

[x-y-no]

And here is the water level recorded at ILDL1:



Never higher than 5.5 feet.

Now that's in open water, so one would expect the surge in appropriately shaped bays and gently sloping shorelines to be higher. But three times as high? I'd like to see the evidence.

[x-y-no]

Location of station ILDL1, for reference:

[cajungal]

Best working source of objective data I can find is station ILDL1 - Isle Dernieres, LA, located in open water south of SELA.

The anemometer at this platform is located 19.2 meters above sea level, which means one should reduce the observed speed by a bit. But for argument's sake, let's just use the observed speed.

Here's the wind speed chart:



As you can see, the sustained wind at 20:00gmt of the 22nd (the time you claim sustained TS winds were being experienced in SELA) at this station over open water south of SELA was only 28 to 30 knots - below TS strength.

Well, somebody had an anemoter (sp) that recorded an 80 mph wind gust in the western part of Terrebonne Parish.

EDIT: Also note, the sustained winds never reached anywhere near hurricane strength.

[brunota2003]

Best working source of objective data I can find is station ILDL1 - Isle Dernieres, LA, located in open water south of SELA.

The anemometer at this platform is located 19.2 meters above sea level, which means one should reduce the observed speed by a bit. But for argument's sake, let's just use the observed speed.

Here's the wind speed chart:



As you can see, the sustained wind at 20:00gmt of the 22nd (the time you claim sustained TS winds were being experienced in SELA) at this station over open water south of SELA was only 28 to 30 knots - below TS strength.

Well, somebody had an anemoter (sp) that recorded an 80 mph wind gust in the western part of Terrebonne Parish.

EDIT: Also note, the sustained winds never reached anywhere near hurricane strength.

Also note the GUSTS NEVER got above hurricane force, which is 65 knots... hmmm...

[x-y-no]

Well, somebody had an anemoter (sp) that recorded an 80 mph wind gust in the western part of Terrebonne Parish.

OK, three things:

1) What time was that? LSU's contention is that there were sustained TS winds in SELA only 12 hours after the TS warning went up. I am offering the only objective evidence I have found so far. This evidence clearly contradicts that claim. I'm willing to look at any further evidence, however. I note that LSU has yet to provide any - only unsubstantiated claims.

2) What station was this? What location? Do we know this station is properly calibrated?

3) 80 knot gusts are not inconsistant with sustained TS winds. So even if we establish that this measurement was accurate, it is fully consistant with the NHC advisories.

[brunota2003]

Well, somebody had an anemoter (sp) that recorded an 80 mph wind gust in the western part of Terrebonne Parish.

OK, three things:

1) What time was that? LSU's contention is that there were sustained TS winds in SELA only 12 hours after the TS warning went up. I am offering the only objective evidence I have found so far. This evidence clearly contradicts that claim. I'm willing to look at any further evidence, however. I note that LSU has yet to provide any - only unsubstantiated claims.

2) What station was this? What location? Do we know this station is properly calibrated?

3) 80 knot gusts are not inconsistant with sustained TS winds. So even if we establish that this measurement was accurate, it is fully consistant with the NHC advisories.

She said 80 mph, not knots, which is even more TS wind believable, you know what i mean... thats like 60-70 mph sustained, if that high, still waiting for these so called hurricane force SUSTAINED winds NO got... maybe it was only in their house...

[x-y-no]

She said 80 mph, not knots, which is even more TS wind believable, you know what i mean... thats like 60-70 mph sustained, if that high, still waiting for these so called hurricane force SUSTAINED winds NO got... maybe it was only in their house...

Thanks for catching that. Obviously, I have knots in my head.

Actually ... old sailor's habit. I think in knots, not mph.

[hookemfins]

Well, somebody had an anemoter (sp) that recorded an 80 mph wind gust in the western part of Terrebonne Parish.

Was the anemometer properly calibrated? Did it conform the NWS guidelines according to height and location?

[brunota2003]

She said 80 mph, not knots, which is even more TS wind believable, you know what i mean... thats like 60-70 mph sustained, if that high, still waiting for these so called hurricane force SUSTAINED winds NO got... maybe it was only in their house...

Thanks for catching that. Obviously, I have knots in my head.

Actually ... old sailor's habit. I think in knots, not mph.

lol your welcome, it just makes hurricane force winds less likely...

[Derek Ortt]

The NHc even went as far as to issue the warning for all of Vermillion Bay, which did not get hurricane winds. They took the tides into consideration, as they did during Dennis, even though they are not required to do so (CHC on their site does state that a hurricane warning also is issued for regions of high tidal surges, but not the NHC).

The warning went all the way to Morgan City

[jeff]

We have lived many years along the coast with minor hurricane impact. NWS, NHC, and local emergency official have treid to convey to all those moving to the coast the dangers a hurricane presents. People have refused to listen and then came the hurricane season of 2004 and yet still people will not listen. Now we have been hit by Dennis, Katrina, and Rita and there still does not seem to be an understanding.

How can people still not understand that if they build on the coast, one day they will lose everything. At some point YOU must take the responsibility upon youself to educate you on hurricane impacts to your region. If you choose to live in a bowl like New Orleans with category 3 protection, then you should not be surprised when a cat 4 hits and floods your city.

If you live in a surge prone area and there is a massive 500 mile diameter hurricane 300 miles to your south (Rita) you should expect some impact.

If you live in a city of 4.0 million people and 2.0 million decide they are going to leave all at once...there is nothing anybody can do to relieve the traffic problems. There was a plan in place for the phased evacuation, but everybody left Galveston and Houston all at once Wednesday and early Thursday....what the hell do you think is going to happen. It is not the govt. fault that you do differently than told. If you do not want to sit in traffic next time, by all means stay and drown in the storm surge.

In the end, the choice is yours, mets, emergency officials, and local law enforcement convey the information to those at risk and make recommendations. So the finger pointing needs to only look at the hand it is attached to.