TD/TS Gamma Recon Discussion

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cycloneye
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#81 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:13 pm

They are flying more southward looking for another center further south to see if they close that one.
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#82 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:19 pm

The suspense is killing me. It probably means they couldn't find a closed circulation. :D
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#83 Postby Steve H. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:27 pm

There is obviously a circulation there. Whether its completely closed I'm not sure, but I've seen hurricanes with open eyewalls. If they use this as the rationale for not dubbing it a TD that would be ridiculous. Its still getting its act together and has an open slot on the SE quad that is closing up. This will go on until it has a completely dominant/stacked circulation. "nuff said, call it a TD.
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#84 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:28 pm

Understood, hence why I said CLOSED circulation. :D
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#85 Postby Steve H. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:30 pm

I hear ya. They must need to be politically correct.
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#86 Postby superfly » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:30 pm

Steve H. wrote:There is obviously a circulation there. Whether its completely closed I'm not sure, but I've seen hurricanes with open eyewalls. If they use this as the rationale for not dubbing it a TD that would be ridiculous. Its still getting its act together and has an open slot on the SE quad that is closing up. This will go on until it has a completely dominant/stacked circulation. "nuff said, call it a TD.


Open eyewall does not mean open circulation. Open eyewall just means the rainbands aren't there, the wind circulation is still closed.
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#87 Postby Steve H. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:36 pm

I know, I know, my bad. I thought about that analogy after I clicked submit. Point is that if its showing that kind of rotation around a point at low levels and the island has sustained winds of 43 mph, we can safety assume a TD now. If it were in the central atlantic it would be a TD now.
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#88 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:54 pm

What is taking so long? :grr:
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#89 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:56 pm

Steve H. wrote:I know, I know, my bad. I thought about that analogy after I clicked submit. Point is that if its showing that kind of rotation around a point at low levels and the island has sustained winds of 43 mph, we can safety assume a TD now. If it were in the central atlantic it would be a TD now.


the circulation can look perfect from satellite, however, if recon cant close off the wind field, more or less from ther southwest, no depression... that may be the only thing missing...


Jesse V. Bass III
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#90 Postby Steve H. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:58 pm

You can see the LL circulation banding in from the SW underneath and further out from the convection. Convection is at least temporarily on the wane.
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#91 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:13 pm

Back from class, I see that the RECON has reported 45 knots at flight level. By how much do we divide this? .70, .80, .90?
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#92 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:15 pm

I believe it was .70
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#93 Postby Forecaster Colby » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:16 pm

MUTLIPLY by .7

Did they find a LLC?
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#94 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:17 pm

If they did, they are sure taking their time telling anyone.
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#95 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:17 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:MUTLIPLY by .7

Did they find a LLC?


So, far no vortex message, but they have been reporting winds at flight level at 45 knots.
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#96 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:26 pm

Well, what is going on???
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#97 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:30 pm

They are still trying to closeoff a circulation but so far no vortex message means no closed circulation yet however they are still there so let's see in the next hour what they find.
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#98 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:33 pm

they just found 49kts!
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#99 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:34 pm

What is this about .7? Never heard of it...Its almost always .8/.9.
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#100 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:35 pm

Wow, for so little in the way of intense convection, 49 kts seems kind of high doesn't it?
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