Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

Website · #81 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:17 am

Yeah... that cold in Alaska and NW Canada can't stay there forever...

8-)

#82 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:15 am

Both the 0z run and the 6z run of the operational GFS prog an arctic outbreak for Texas and the southern Plains around Feb. 1st.

Link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Extremeweatherguy · #83 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:58 am

In the short term, we are about to see our coldest and wettest days in weeks! Starting tomorrow, we will probably not get above 62 for many days, and since 62 is the avg. high, that means we will actually be at or below normal temp. wise. Also, we are going to have rain chances TODAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY!!! That is 7 out of 7 days of the next week and the highest chance is 60% on Sunday! What a complete change we are about to have, and now with the arctic outbreak still on track for early Feb. I am beginning to feel very comfident that this warm and dry period is finally over! Speaking of cold...we will struggle to get out of the lower 50s this Sunday! :eek:

#84 Postby **jeff** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 8:13 am

Well well well....

00Z ensembles continue to support amplified ridging along the west coast into southern Alaska around the end of the month and now the trusty GFS is on board with a full blown snowstorm around these parts around the 4th (how many times have we seen that this year).

Not much change in the extended, although the western US ridge does not seem to build as far north as yesterday and the downstream trough looks like it may want to pop out a cut-off over the SW US. This pattern would still support cold arctic air making good southward progress into the US, although its stay may be a little shorter than one would have thought yesterday.

Anyhow, there is plenty of time to watch and I would use caution if you are starting to get excited.

More important is the expected chance of rain starting Saturday night into early Monday which is badly needed across the area. Coastal trough forced by an approaching upper level system and increasingly active sub-tropical jet should spell a wet Sunday. Clouds and rain should lock surface temps. in the 50's for highs which is a welcomed change of the past 3-4 weeks. Wet pattern continues for much of the week as SW flow aloft ejects disturbances across the state. Best chance of rain appears Wednesday as strong upper low crosses the area with chances for both heavy rainfall and severe.

Kelarie · #85 Postby **Kelarie** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:10 am

Well looking at the high in Austin for Sunday is 48!!!!!!!!!!! That blows my mind. And on top of that, it will be raining with a chance of rumbles.

Oh my, I am feeling faint. Someone have my smelling salts???

This is a very exciting time in a young woman's life.

txtwister · #86 Postby **txtwister** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:29 am

I'm just hoping that the Dallas area gets some of that rain. We have not received any yet from the last couple of fronts. Maybe a couple of sprinkles that's all. The TV weather guys up here are not all that optomistic about the Sat/Sun chances either. They think it is going to be east and south of us. We are so rain starved up here...

#87 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 10:23 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:local news (channel 12) actually mentioned the threat of arctic air for the first week of Feb. tonight. Usually they do not mention such things so far out so this may be a sign that they too have a strong feeling about this one. Personally I feel we will see the coldest air of the season when this air dives southward (colder than the high of 37 we saw in early December)!

I saw Frank B saying that too and had to pick myself up off the floor!!! I'm not so sure how cold this shot is going to be, at least for our area, but there is, if the models verify, definitely a cold shot on the way for early fevruary. What I don't like is the almost complete lack of precipitation shown for our area during that time. It does look like the SE may have a good shot a some real winter weather with this outbreak and yes I do mean precipitation wise.

#88 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 10:57 am

Well...the temps in NE AK are now running in the -40 to -53 range. You wanna know what all the other forecasted outbreaks were missing?

That was it.

That's cold and it's going to go somewhere. The question is where?

#89 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 11:48 am

Air Force Met wrote:Well...the temps in NE AK are now running in the -40 to -53 range. You wanna know what all the other forecasted outbreaks were missing?

That was it.

That's cold and it's going to go somewhere. The question is where?

Yeah, we know ... we supply the questions and we hope that YOU supply the answers Air Force Met!

#90 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 4:38 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Well...the temps in NE AK are now running in the -40 to -53 range. You wanna know what all the other forecasted outbreaks were missing?

That was it.

That's cold and it's going to go somewhere. The question is where?

Yeah, we know ... we supply the questions and we hope that YOU supply the answers Air Force Met!

I wish I could tell you. I've got some other non-weather stuff going on right now...but from a quick look...the 12z ensembles are trending colder for the south/lower 48 begining in 10-11 days. I still don't think the GFS has a good handle on the coldness of the air so I think the sfc part of the equation is hosed.

Longer range in the period...the ridge in the west really builds. One thing's for sure...it's being consistant with the amplification of the trof at about the same time...which since the 14th it has started the amplification of the trof on the 30th...and that was at the 360 hours +.

Now...we are talking 14 ensemble runs later...and we are still showing a big trof/ridge on the 30th. Top that off with..

now get this...

temps of -60 in AK right now...

and I think someone is in business for some cold air. We just have to wait a few more days to see how it is all going to play out. We need to see if pressures start to build next week in AK.

Extremeweatherguy · #91 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 4:40 pm

wow...-60 is mighty cold and could spell trouble down the road. AFM, do you think that if this were to come right down the plains we could see a scenario like 83' or 89'?

Tyler · #92 Postby **Tyler** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 4:41 pm

-60

I'm guessing thats below average for Alaska? Whoever gets this cold, if it ever comes south, is going to be in for a shock. Perhaps a cold outbreak like Feb 1951 will occur in which we had 3 straight days in the teens in early Feb, lowest being 14 degrees. We can only dream of 1960 (4 inches of snow in Houston). A man can dream!

#93 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 4:43 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:Well...the temps in NE AK are now running in the -40 to -53 range. You wanna know what all the other forecasted outbreaks were missing?

That was it.

That's cold and it's going to go somewhere. The question is where?

Yeah, we know ... we supply the questions and we hope that YOU supply the answers Air Force Met!

I wish I could tell you. I've got some other non-weather stuff going on right now...but from a quick look...the 12z ensembles are trending colder for the south/lower 48 begining in 10-11 days. I still don't think the GFS has a good handle on the coldness of the air so I think the sfc part of the equation is hosed.

Longer range in the period...the ridge in the west really builds. One thing's for sure...it's being consistant with the amplification of the trof at about the same time...which since the 14th it has started the amplification of the trof on the 30th...and that was at the 360 hours +.

Now...we are talking 14 ensemble runs later...and we are still showing a big trof/ridge on the 30th. Top that off with..

now get this...

temps of -60 in AK right now...

and I think someone is in business for some cold air. We just have to wait a few more days to see how it is all going to play out. We need to see if pressures start to build next week in AK.

Fair enough. As always, I appreciate your keen insights and presence on this board.

Extremeweatherguy · #94 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:03 pm

Tyler wrote:-60 I'm guessing thats below average for Alaska? Whoever gets this cold, if it ever comes south, is going to be in for a shock. Perhaps a cold outbreak like Feb 1951 will occur in which we had 3 straight days in the teens in early Feb, lowest being 14 degrees. We can only dream of 1960 (4 inches of snow in Houston). A man can dream!

the ultimate crazy scenario is a 1951 cold snap (123 hrs. below 32) mixed with a 1960 snow storm.

Tyler · #95 Postby **Tyler** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 6:07 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:-60 I'm guessing thats below average for Alaska? Whoever gets this cold, if it ever comes south, is going to be in for a shock. Perhaps a cold outbreak like Feb 1951 will occur in which we had 3 straight days in the teens in early Feb, lowest being 14 degrees. We can only dream of 1960 (4 inches of snow in Houston). A man can dream!

the ultimate crazy scenario is a 1951 cold snap (123 hrs. below 32) mixed with a 1960 snow storm.

LOL, now thats just talking crazy! :lol:

#96 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:wow...-60 is mighty cold and could spell trouble down the road. AFM, do you think that if this were to come right down the plains we could see a scenario like 83' or 89'?

I don't think we'll see something like those years. Those years had high's stretching all the way back to alaska with NNW flow all the way from the pole...which is why is stayed cold for so long...constant reinforcement. This looks to be a one time...cold for a couple of days shot....although the latest 12z ensemble seems to indicate the pattern for cold sticks around a little while longer.

Extremeweatherguy · #97 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 9:53 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:wow...-60 is mighty cold and could spell trouble down the road. AFM, do you think that if this were to come right down the plains we could see a scenario like 83' or 89'?

I don't think we'll see something like those years. Those years had high's stretching all the way back to alaska with NNW flow all the way from the pole...which is why is stayed cold for so long...constant reinforcement. This looks to be a one time...cold for a couple of days shot....although the latest 12z ensemble seems to indicate the pattern for cold sticks around a little while longer.

Though it may have a lesser length than those years...do you think that temperatures could get as low as they did then? Do you think this kind of set-up may support a sub-32 degree day(s) in Houston?

Extremeweatherguy · #98 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 10:02 pm

Just thought I would post some interesting February snow facts for Houston:

Houston Feb. Snowfalls:

YEAR DATE Inches

1895 February 14-15 20

1958 February 12 Trace

1960 February 12 4.4

1963 February 12 Trace

1964 February 21 Trace

1973 February 9-10 1.4

1973 February 17-18 1.4

1980 February 2 1.4

1981 February 11 Trace

1985 February 1 0.3

1989 February 6 Trace

Tyler · #99 Postby **Tyler** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 10:54 pm

That 1895 storm, I just can't picture that in my mind. I have trouble picturing 20 inches of snowfall in Houston. If that happened, I might explode, I don't know. Just unbelievable. I wonder how ingredients came together so well to produce not just 1 foot, but almost 2 feet of snow!!! Boggles the mind.

Nor can I believe it reached 8 degrees in Galveston in 1899. Man...

I know some people who went through the Feb 1960 storm, they have some interesting stories, they even have some pictures from it, interesting stuff!

Extremeweatherguy · #100 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 11:22 pm

Tyler wrote:That 1895 storm, I just can't picture that in my mind. I have trouble picturing 20 inches of snowfall in Houston. If that happened, I might explode, I don't know. Just unbelievable. I wonder how ingredients came together so well to produce not just 1 foot, but almost 2 feet of snow!!! Boggles the mind.

Nor can I believe it reached 8 degrees in Galveston in 1899. Man...

I know some people who went through the Feb 1960 storm, they have some interesting stories, they even have some pictures from it, interesting stuff!

the scary thing about that storm...is that the reported 20" may have been too LOW!!! I have read many old newspaper articles written back in 1895 that mentioned that the snow was over the railroad tracks by 12" and that the railroad tracks were 24" off the ground to begin with...do the math and that is 36"!!! The worst hit areas seems to have been between Houston and Lake Charles where 20-36" of snow blanketed much of the area. A scarier thing is that even 9 days later, Houston STILL had over NINE INCHES on the ground! Could you imagine!

Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

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