TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available

[Rod Hagen]

From http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 622812.htm

NT residents wait for cyclone Monica's onslaught
Authorities have urged Darwin residents to move to cyclone shelters if they are uncomfortable with staying in their homes as cyclone Monica bears down towards land.

The weather bureau predicts the category 5 cyclone will hit the Coburg Peninsula, and then move through the channel between Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Gale force winds are due to hit Darwin tomorrow morning.

Earlier in the day, weather bureau spokesman Mike Bergin said Monica could be the most severe tropical cyclone ever seen anywhere along the Australian coastline.

The weather bureau says the cyclone is incredibly dangerous, with core wind gusts of 350 kilometres an hour.

Counter disaster controller for the Darwin region, Kate Vanderlaan, says says people in caravans or mobile homes should drive towards Adelaide River.

The Counter Disaster Committee says cyclone shelters in Darwin will open at 8pm ACST.

Police say they will not have roving sirens indicating when to move to shelter, but messages will be broadcast on radio and television.

Medical response
Meanwhile, Darwin's hospitals are making final preparations for the cyclone.

NT principal medical consultant Dr Len Notaras is coordinating the medical response and says people will be pulled back into the hospital's core if the cyclone hits.

"We could deal with between 100 and 150 seriously injured people," he said.

"Numbers greater than that we would increase our contingencies and obviously have mass disaster plans in place, which would involve assistance from the Australian Defence Force and so on."

Dr Notaras says anyone injured in the cyclone should wait for the all clear from police or St John's Ambulance, before heading to hospital.

Fishing industry
Darwin's fishing industry is trying to protect commercial prawn trawlers that are taking shelter in the marina known as the Duck Pond.

Steve Vallantyne runs one of the major trawling companies, and says all the boats are being triple-moored.

"We'll squeeze all the boats together with fingers between them and then just before the cyclone's imminently supposed to hit, they'll lower the level in the Duck Pond to put the boats as low in the water as they possibly can to try to protect them from the wind," he said.

"The bigger ones will probably actually end up sitting on the mud."

Anzac Day services cancelled
Meanwhile, the Palmerston RSL branch has followed Darwin's lead and cancelled its ANZAC Day services.

The Palmerston RSL club will also closed for the day.

Branch secretary Daryl Salathiel says the danger posed by cyclone Monica made it an easy decision.

"They've all been all been cancelled. We waited a little bit longer just to get the last briefing from our emergency services people out here," he said.

"I think people should be looking after their own families and their own households, so that's the main reason we won't even open and trade tomorrow."

_______________

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

Nearly on shore, just west of Maningrida:



Still 155kts-879mb according to Naval reseach Lab.

Could track a little south of Darwin

Rod

[P.K.]

Latest Coastal Weather Observations for Maningrida Airport

Issued at 6:40 pm CST Monday 24 April 2006
About coastal observations | Map of coastal stations | Coastal observations for NT | Marine services
Data from the previous 72 hours.
Date/Time
CST Temp
°C Wind Pressure Rain
since 9am
mm Weather Cloud Vis
km Sea Swell
Dir Speed
knots Gust
knots hPa Trend Height
m Height
m Length
m Dir
24/18:31 24.1 ESE 49 80 986.4 - 127.2 - - - - - - -
24/18:00 23.7 ESE 48 70 986.8 - 98.0 Showers - - - - - -
24/17:30 23.7 ESE 46 71 988.0 - 74.0 - - - - - - -
24/17:07 23.7 SE 50 66 988.4 - 67.2 - - - - - - -
24/17:00 23.9 SE 36 65 988.9 - 64.4 - - - - - - -
24/16:30 23.6 SSE 39 57 989.0 - 49.6 - - - - - - -
24/16:01 23.5 SSE 35 53 989.8 - 37.2 - - - - - - -
24/15:58 23.5 SSE 35 56 989.5 - 36.4 - - - - - - -
24/15:30 24.1 SSE 32 51 991.5 - 30.0 - - - - - - -
24/15:00 24.1 S 28 - 992.2 - 26.0 Rain - - - - - -
24/14:59 24.2 S 28 43 992.2 - 25.8 - - - - - - -
24/14:30 24.2 S 24 43 994.2 - 23.2 - - - - - - -
24/14:13 24.1 S 24 42 994.9 - 21.4 - - - - - - -
24/13:30 24.2 S 18 30 997.0 - 16.2 - - - - - - -
24/13:04 24.1 S 16 26 997.7 - 13.6 - - - - - - -
24/12:30 24.2 S 15 27 999.7 - 10.4 - - - - - - -
24/12:00 24.3 S 14 - 1000.5 - - Rain - - - - - -
24/11:31 24.3 S 16 26 1000.9 - 5.6 - - - - - - -
24/11:26 24.3 S 15 26 1000.9 - 5.4 - - - - - - -
24/10:30 24.4 S 13 19 1002.2 - 0.8 - - - - - - -
24/09:30 25.7 S 14 21 1003.1 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/09:00 25.1 S 13 - 1003.0 - 0.6 - - - - - - -
24/08:30 24.9 S 12 20 1003.0 - 0.6 - - - - - - -
24/07:30 25.2 S 11 20 1002.9 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/06:30 25.9 S 10 17 1002.8 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/06:00 25.9 S 11 - 1003.1 - - - - - - - - -
24/05:30 25.5 S 10 16 1002.4 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/04:30 26.3 S 11 19 1002.0 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/03:30 26.3 S 9 15 1002.2 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/03:00 26.3 S 8 - 1002.8 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/02:30 26.0 SSW 8 12 1003.2 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/01:30 26.0 S 9 17 1004.3 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
24/00:30 26.8 S 8 14 1004.8 - 0.0 - - - - - - -
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60701/IDD60701.95142.shtml

[P.K.]

Darwin Storm Surge Map

[Rod Hagen]

A glancing blow at least to Maningrida, I'd say:



Rod

[whereverwx]

[P.K.]

Landfall an hour ago.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 65
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:16 pm CST Monday 24 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between ELCHO
ISLAND and PORT KEATS, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and
JABIRU.

A CYCLONE WATCH is current between PORT KEATS and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.

At 7 pm CST [5:30 pm WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was crossing
the coast about 30 kilometres west of MANINGRIDA, which is 125 kilometres east
northeast of Oenpelli and 355 kilometres east northeast of DARWIN, and moving
west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to continue to
move west southwest, and commence to weaken as it moves across northwestern
Arnhem Land tonight, but will still be a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE as it moves
across the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is currently affecting parts of the coast between MANINGRIDA
and GOULBURN ISLAND, and is expected to approach the DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND
area on Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on the far north coast between MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND, and
should progress further west and inland to affect the COBOURG PENINSULA and
OENPELLI tonight, and will then approach the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI
ISLANDS area during Tuesday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the north of the Top End coast, and will extend westward with the cyclone,
approaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area from early Tuesday
morning. GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during
Wednesday.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MANINGRIDA and GOULBURN ISLAND tonight.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in across the northern Top End tonight and tomorrow.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 7 pm CST [5:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 11.8 degrees South 134.1 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 915 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between ELCHO ISLAND and PORT KEATS,
including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.

The next advice will be issued at 11 pm CST [9:30 pm WST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Rod Hagen]

The US Naval Research Lab now have Monica blowing herself out over land:



BOM still predict that she will hit close to Darwin (as a Cat 3) and then presumably head over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.



THoughts?

Cheers

Rod

[Jim Cantore]

landfall at 155kts?

[HURAKAN]

landfall at 155kts?

YES, FOR THE SECOND TIME. UNBELIEVABLE. BY THE WAY, THE AIRPORT OF MANINGRIDA JUST FAILED TO REPORT DURING THE LAST HOUR, IT SEEMS MONICA WAS TOO POWERFUL FOR THE INSTRUMENTS.

[HURAKAN]

Complete landfall of the eye has occurred.

[Jim Cantore]

we're about to see what Rita could've done

[Yarrah]

What happenend to the Cape Wessel station?
No reports from that station since Monica's eyewall neared the island.

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like the eye is starting to collapse now becuz its inland, but doesnt 155kts=180mph

[HURAKAN]

looks like the eye is starting to collapse now becuz its inland, but doesnt 155kts=180mph

Yes, this is the first time that I see a 180 mph cyclone/hurricane/typhoon making landfall with such intensity. It's just unreal and disturbing.

[Rod Hagen]

landfall at 155kts?

YES, FOR THE SECOND TIME. UNBELIEVABLE. BY THE WAY, THE AIRPORT OF MANINGRIDA JUST FAILED TO REPORT DURING THE LAST HOUR, IT SEEMS MONICA WAS TOO POWERFUL FOR THE INSTRUMENTS.

The Maningrida Airport figures are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65151 ... 5142.shtml , HURAKAN.

Maybe they had a temporary transmission problem.

Minimum pressure rcorded = 986.4 nb at 17.31 CST

Maximum sustained wind = 51 Knots Maximum gust 80 Knots.

Nothing very spectacular, in fact. The eye passed to the west of Maningrida, though (thank goodness).

Rod

[HURAKAN]

If you see the lastest time that it has is (24/20:02), other airports already are around 21:30 or beyond. The airport just failed to report over the past hour or so.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65149.shtml

Look in the website above and you will see what I'm talking about.

[Rod Hagen]

If you see the lastest time that it has is (24/20:02), other airports already are around 21:30 or beyond. The airport just failed to report over the past hour or so.

It was past Maningrida by then, though HURAKAN. I'd bet its an infrastructure failure between Maningrida and Darwin, rather than failure of the Maningrida gear.

Cheers

Rod

[P.K.]

Down to 100kts, 935hPa. Now a cat 4.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1200 UTC 24 APRIL 2006

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
12.0 S 133.7 E moving WESTSOUTHWEST at 7 knots. Central pressure 935 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 100 knots near centre deceasing to 60 knots within 12 to 24
hours.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 35 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate heavy swell.

0000 UTC 25 Apr: centre over land within 40 nautical miles of 12.7S 132.2 E.
955 hPa. Winds to 80 knots near centre.
1200 UTC 25 Apr: centre over land within 75 nautical miles of 13.0S 130.8 E.
975 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.



DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre