INVEST 93L Comments Thread #2

[HurricaneHunter914]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I can picture the 10:30 TWO now (This is not the real) "CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE INCREASED AND THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THEM HAS GOTTEEN BETTER ORGANIZED.... HOWEVER BECAUSE OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.... DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[gatorcane]

looks like this tropical wave is fighting very hard - reminds of TD #10 when it fought off the shear and remained on a westerly course with the tradewinds then blew up when the time was right becoming Katrina

Of course the situation is much more hostile for our little wave this time

[HurricaneHunter914]

But the shear is decreasing over the system which should make the conditions less hostile. Plus does this look like Invest 93L is fighting?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[gatorcane]

But the shear is decreasing over the system which should make the conditions less hostile. Plus does this look like Invest 93L is fighting?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

it looks like the energy has slowed down - that is the ball of convection is not moving nearly as fast to the west - what implications could this have?

[gatorcane]

the convection seems to be maintaining nicely today folks - I'm thinking things coul get interesting with 93L as it doesn't seem to want to move as fast WNW as some thought I think

[HurricaneHunter914]

Probably wants to stay in the lowest amount of shear.

[gatorcane]

Probably wants to stay in the lowest amount of shear.

Latest shear map - if something get going from 93L a bit farther north it would have lighter shear. The Caribbean route will be harsh though.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[gatorcane]

Latest TWO as of 10:30:

No development here.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED

.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Kinda looks a little better organized though.

[gatorcane]

Folks 93L is really maintaining its convection - of course the wind shear is strong but there seems to be a concentrate area of thunderstorms whos tops don't seem to be getting blown off....thoughts?

I'm not liking the looks of 93L one bit....

[HurricaneHunter914]

The shear is actually decreasing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[gatorcane]

The shear is actually decreasing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Indeed you are right and looking at the blob that has been maintaining itself it seems to be growing better organized and more concentrated...which is shwoing the shear has diminished some....hmmmmm I think if the convection is still there by tomorrow AM we should get concerned.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The NHC is probably going to say,"DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED". And for 94L,"CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT".

[boca]

Gatorcane are u talking about the blowup ESE of the Bahamas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Cyclenall]

The main site doesn't have 93L up any more. I'm confused. This thing isn't dead at all (as of this post).

[wxman57]

Folks 93L is really maintaining its convection - of course the wind shear is strong but there seems to be a concentrate area of thunderstorms whos tops don't seem to be getting blown off....thoughts?

I'm not liking the looks of 93L one bit....

What you are witnessing is a tropical wave passing by an upper-level trof. There's a "hot spot" near the intersection of the wave and the trof where vertical lift is high. This caused thunderstorms to explode yesterday. But the wave axis has now passed the upper trof and is located along 68W. Convection in the Caribbean Sea is now gone as the wave is moving too quickly for convergence to occur. There are some residual thunderstorms associated with an upper-level low to the northeat of the Dominican Republic, but conditions there are not favorable for development.

The wave will continue moving westward, reaching the Yucatan area on Sunday. I'm sure that thunderstorms will flare up around/over the Yucatan on Sunday as the wave slows down. When it moves across the BoC on Monday, there may be window of opportunity for it to develop before it moves into Mexico.

[wxman57]

The main site doesn't have 93L up any more. I'm confused. This thing isn't dead at all (as of this post).

That's because there's no more 93L. It's just a convection-free tropical wave now. Nothing much to worry about.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

This wave does look crappy, but eventually it'll gain more convection and then lose it, gain more convection and then lose it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Some people say it is, but IMO it's too far to be associated with 93L, a Pro-Met can probably help you out.

[gatorcane]

Some people say it is, but IMO it's too far to be associated with 93L, a Pro-Met can probably help you out.

the blob is the interaction of 93L with a low-level trough to the north. Wxman explains it further several posts up this thread.