Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Wx_Warrior]

Ah...my bad...back to the topic...sorry, mods!!!!

[TexWx]

"I hope the center does not relocate farther north."

I've been thinking this most of the evening.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

I don't know because the weak trough over MO isn't going to pick it up, no way.

[gatorcane]

wow check out the latest IR - bigtime convection firing now - it is really getting its act together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[PTPatrick]

GOD THESE SE CARRIBEAN STORMS KILL ME. I like the BOC storms that last 3 days...you get a good idea on track quickly and there is less chance for devastation. Its this sitting for week and watching it come it that is awful. It like taking a bullet at your head, only it goes in slow motion and you cant move...you are just a freaking paper "villian" outline at the end of shooting range.

Personally, I would take less time to prepare that way versus watching it come for a week.

[gatorcane]

so any thoughts about the center forming under the big convection firing north of the "center" right now....

[WxGuy1]

well...CMC hasnt been great of late.

The CMC is rarely "great" in regard to tropical cyclone forecasts. I'm pleased to have read several truthful posts in the past few hours, ones which state what some are forgetting -- we cannot put much stock into a 5-6 day forecast for a storm that is only still a depression! I know it's fun to play future-guesser, but I have a feeling that most of those writing the "WATCH OUT FLORIDA!"-type of posts have little scientific justification for doing so. Most credible meteorologists realize the lack of skill in track forecast and intensity at this point in the game, so you should question anyone who seems to imply much degree of certainty in their 'forecast'.

You don't need to analyze every map for 5 hours to make a forecast (though it wouldn't hurt), but realize that the degree of 'hearsay' increases dramatically when any tropical cyclone approaches the US. To avoid the "I heard this might hit Tampa -- is it true?"-type of posts, please make sure to convey the inherent uncertainty present at this time. Most of us don't know who to 'trust' and who not to trust in terms of forecast skill, so it's easy for me to come on here and say "I guarantee it'll hit Key West as a 250mph Cat 6 supercane" and have someone believe me. The majority of us are reasonable, but it never hurts to stay level-headed.

Again, I'm NOT saying any particular forecast will not verify. I don't know, and nobody does at this point in time. If one current forecast does end up verifying later, that also does not mean that a forecast from that model should be 100% trusted at a later time! Some models do well in some situations, and others do better in other situation. I'm just trying to discourage folks from putting a ton of faith in, e.g., the CMC next time if it happens to verify this time. A forecast is no good if you don't know when it's good and when it's bad (and thus when you should put faith in it and when you should ignore it).

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed, something's not right with those models....maybe it knows something we dont...Texas wants to phone a friend on this one and pass it to Florida.

[TexWx]

Man, it looks like it's jumped north.

[Grease Monkey]

Florida calls for the 50/50 chance.

[deltadog03]

people should lay off the GFDL so much.....I don't know why its so far east.

[Bailey1777]

KFDM throwing out the models and using your best judgement off of what you see(Not asking for a landfall lodation) but broadly where do you see it heading?

[ericinmia]

00z MM5 is coming out...

Runs is between Jamaica and Cuba and then skirts cuba turning into a formidable hurricane as it approaches the yucatan channel.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 36_100.gif

NEW CANADIAN ALSO HAS IT HITTING FLORIDA PANHANDLE

[Wx_Warrior]

This will make you stay up all night and get your stomach in knots and it's not even in the GOM yet!

[bostonseminole]

boston - good to have you on the board. I need a lotta reinforcement here; seems there are lots of UM and UF fans.

This should not jeopardize the game, though.

I'm a little puzzled as to what the models are showing, myself...

No problem, I agree this will be long gone, unless there is a major hit in SFL that requires the dates to be moved due to other reasons

[temujin]

I guarantee it'll hit Key West as a 250mph Cat 6 supercane

Fun with quotes. I'm diggin' you, though. Now is not the time to start rumors about where it's going to hit.

Everyone from Key West to Brownsville needs to be aware this is out there, but none of them need to feel a panic just yet.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

That's 2 new models that have shifted to the Florida Panhandle..

[Noles2006]

boston - if they cannot play it in Miami on the date scheduled, they'll pack up and move it to Tallahassee [at least that's my understanding].

[Noles2006]

That's 2 new models that have shifted to the Florida Panhandle..

Heh. That's not pretty. I'll just think of those two as "off-runs" and wait for some consistency.