Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

#81 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:36 pm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

Dakar,Senegal observations.The lowest pressure there was 1008 mbs early this afternoon.And the winds haved been changing directions all day.So Thunder44,I think you are right about the low off the coast now.

Zardoz · #82 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:42 pm

Ominous-looking, huh? That thing had better be another fish storm. It needs to stay well away from any inhabited land...

#83 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:46 pm

Zardoz wrote:Ominous-looking, huh? That thing had better be another fish storm. It needs to stay well away from any inhabited land...

Looking at the models early recurvature for this one seems likely with Central Atlantic Troughing late week.

MiamiensisWx · #84 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:47 pm

Here are my thoughts on this possible developing low as the axis of this vigorous mid-level rotation wave moves offshore...

Due to fairly light shear and the vicinity, favorable mid-level anticyclonic diffluence, fairly good low-level to mid-level divergence, mild mid-level ridging support, as well as the aforementioned other mildly favorable synoptics in the graphic above (including a much more diffuse and less intrusive mid-level SAL that is decreasing to the north, northwest, and west-northwest), all of which is being indicated by the maintenance and slow consolidation of persistent convection for 24 hours which is showing signs of mild banding and consolidation in the vicinity of a possible reforming and developing low or weak LLC, this system is likely to possibly become our next INVEST - 94L - within the next 36 hours. This is all additionally supported by the ULL a few hundred miles to the north-northwest which is slowly pulling out east-northeast, with the southern portion of it's influence thus weakening to the west and west-northwest of this developing wave low, allowing for decreasing mid-level shear ahead of this wave.

#85 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:06 pm

Good synopsis Capeverdewave thanks for posting it.

#86 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:13 pm

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N17W IS EMERGING OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 16W-24W.

8 PM Discussion.

Zardoz · #87 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:46 pm

Big blob of convection just popped up, and correct me if I'm wrong, but that sucker looks to be getting fairly well-organized already:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-rb.html

#88 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:15 pm

Helene, is that you?

#89 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:35 pm

WXMAN57 perhaps you can Create the 400-700mb flow charts for this perspective low developing in the Eastern Atlantic.
Looking at the GFS ensemble maps for 00Z and 18Z it would appear that a Central Atlantic Trough is going to dip down and scoop this thing out in days 5-7 and perhaps even earlier. However the models have taken it more west than originally.

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:45 pm

HeeBGBz · #91 Postby **HeeBGBz** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:11 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:Looks impressive in this satellite shot....

They look like fractals.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #92 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:41 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON TROPICAL STORM GORDON...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

#93 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:53 pm

why isnt there an invest?

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:58 pm

fact789 wrote:why isnt there an invest?

Because the low pressure just moved off the coast tonight,For sure invest 94L will be up at some point tommorow.

#95 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:
fact789 wrote:why isnt there an invest?

Because the low pressure just moved off the coast tonight,For sure invest 94L will be up at some point tommorow.

Unless it becomes TD8 before that happens.

jaxfladude · #96 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:17 pm

FISH FISH FISH Going Fishing.........nice after the last few hurricane seasons......

#97 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:24 pm

yep 2006 is definitely the year of fish so far... 8-)

#98 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:25 pm

so this system is going fishing too?

#99 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:27 pm

tgenius wrote:so this system is going fishing too?

it is very early to say.....but there is a decent chance from all that I read (assuming it is accurate...)

the greatest threat right now is for the Eastern Caribbean islands but it is early

#100 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:36 pm

As big as this disturbance is the Islands better watch very carefully. I would imagine there are going to be several center relocations if this thing gets going and if those set up to the South this thing is already at a pretty low lat.

Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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