Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[Coredesat]

Well, the upper-level shear map isn't everything - the mid-level shear is actually more favorable:



This could develop, but it probably wouldn't get very strong.

[caribepr]

What would you do if you were a ship with 100 passengers leaving Martinique for Dominica right now, tomorrow night to Guadeloupe, and Thursday night to Antigua?
edit: this is no joke... would you keep moving north?

Well, sheesh! Serious question but I can't help but believe the captain is going to have weather guidance AND instructions- lots of factors, speed of the boat, purpose of the trip, alternatives considered - especially in light of insurance issues. Let us know the story and I hope it all goes well.

[wxmann_91]

IMO, this is either going out to sea or into the EPAC.

How about west through the Caribbean and just south of Cuba or the NW Caribbean - then a mid Oct trough comes down.

It's very possible also. I would say it is NOT going to the EPAC if it develops. Just my 2 cents.

How?

My reasoning's simple, I drew a graphic.

Black arrows are the possibilities.



If it stays weak, it will follow the southern track, if it strengthens, out to sea after pounding Greater Antilles. I'm not sure if it will develop or not.

Day 6 there's no chance of it coming back to haunt the U.S.
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/5431 ... 44mno9.gif

[Coredesat]

There were models run at 00Z, actually:



06Z should be out soon, but I won't be awake to post them.

[TheEuropean]

NRL now with 25kts and 1010mb. I will watch this one closely in the next few days.

[abajan]

Some higher than normal winds last night but little (if any) rain. Morning has dawned cloudy, mostly to the east. Winds are calm.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

convection has decreased, but the invest ismore orginized now!

[wxman57]

What would you do if you were a ship with 100 passengers leaving Martinique for Dominica right now, tomorrow night to Guadeloupe, and Thursday night to Antigua?
edit: this is no joke... would you keep moving north?

Doesn't sound like too difficult a question. For at least the next day or so, as it passes those islands, it will just be a mass of disorganized thunderstorms. Any decent-sized ship would be fine in such weather. If it's a cruise ship and the passengers want sunshine, that's another matter. They'll have to stay off the deck during the thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

Visible Image


There is a circulation at 14.5n-56.6w.

[Nimbus]

The deepest convection is still fairly compact so your itinerary may not be a complete rain out.

[hurricanetrack]

No kidding Luis. You can clearly see this thing turning in the visible loop. As the day progresses and we get more day-time images, we can see it even better. The GFS was perhaps a little more robust with this system in the coming days, so who knows? If it tracks south of the Greater Antilles and in to the western Caribbean, then we just might have something here. We need a little excitement- nothing too serious, just something to get everyone's attention again.

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

well orginized now!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061011 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061011 1200 061012 0000 061012 1200 061013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 59.7W 14.6N 61.5W 15.6N 62.7W 16.1N 63.6W
BAMM 13.6N 59.7W 14.7N 61.7W 15.5N 63.1W 16.0N 64.3W
A98E 13.6N 59.7W 14.3N 62.2W 15.0N 64.3W 15.8N 66.1W
LBAR 13.6N 59.7W 14.7N 61.6W 15.9N 63.0W 16.8N 64.3W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061013 1200 061014 1200 061015 1200 061016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 64.5W 15.7N 67.4W 15.5N 71.1W 15.4N 74.8W
BAMM 16.1N 65.5W 15.5N 68.7W 15.1N 72.8W 15.1N 77.1W
A98E 15.9N 67.9W 16.8N 71.5W 16.7N 75.1W 16.5N 79.0W
LBAR 17.5N 65.4W 18.3N 68.1W 18.9N 71.9W 19.4N 74.6W
SHIP 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS 61KTS
DSHP 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 59.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 57.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 54.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

wxman_91 you need to also include the possibility of a track into the Western or NW Caribbean as it strengthens and then curves up into the GOM and then NE into South Florida or the West Coast of Florida as a trough comes down.

There is no way it will just scoot all the way into Central America OR if it is a little stronger just miss the US entirely. It's early to speculate but I think we have a player here.

[Evil Jeremy]

The convection is now on the circulations south western side.

[Nimbus]

There she blows!

[Frank2]

Doesn't look like much to me - some sort of weak MLC or LLC, but, the convection is wave-like, and, well to the west of the MLC or LLC, with shear off to the west...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Doesn't look like much to me - some sort of weak MLC or LLC, but, the convection is wave-like, and, well to the west of the MLC or LLC, with shear off to the west...

Frank

that should keep her moving west for at lest the next 3-5 days and then development would be more likely in the W. Caribbean which is climalogically favored. Tracks at that point could go NW N or NE.

Either way I will be watching closely.

[CrazyC83]

I'd give it a 40% chance of development.

Conditions aren't the greatest, but there is a hole it could go through.

[Thunder44]

Winds have switched to WSW over Barbados this morning:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Also Dr. Jeff Masters seems to be upbeat about this wave developing, but doesn't think it will become much more than a TD.