Danielle Advisories

[chris_fit]

Doubt it... Think she's gonna be going North

~Chris

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah that ULL is having very little effect so far. I don't think it will miss, but if it does this storm could make it to Bermuda or the NE/Canada. That seems very unlikely now.

I agree, while the wave coming off Africa now isn't as pretty as Danielle was, it looks very healthy. It is also further south than Danielle, so it could make the long haul.

[chris_fit]

Later, if at all

[Brent]

It's only at 85 right now, the NHC won't jump on it that quick with it so far from land. A Cat 2 is likely later today or tonight though.

[PurdueWx80]

Oops, I meant to have a "never" category, but I guess I can't add that now. Sorry.

[Guest]

Historically early season hurricanes Aug 16 I believe is early have a greater chance of not recurving

[PurdueWx80]

http://grads.iges.org/pix/atlpot.gif

Check out the SST's near Danielle. Even if it turns to the NW, which it is now, it will be moving over warmer waters that, according to this map, would support a major hurricane. Now, the storm is over 'cooler' water, but the southern half remains over slightly warmer water. That's probably why the convection is deeper down there. The eye continues to impress though!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

[cycloneye]

15/1800 UTC 15.1N 33.5W T4.5/4.5 DANIELLE -- Atlantic Ocean
15/1745 UTC 12.0N 62.5W T3.0/3.0 EARL -- Atlantic Ocean

[wx247]

What does a T-Number of 3.0 equate to??

[opera ghost]

Danielle is so pretty... I'm glad she's so far away from land.

Next to her Earl looks roughed up.

[cycloneye]

What does a T-Number of 3.0 equate to??

CI MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

This is the chart for intensity of the SSD dvorak T numbers based on sat estimates.3.0=45kts

[PurdueWx80]

T3.0 = 45 kt/1000 mb
T4.5 = 77 kt / 979 mb

[wx247]

Thanks Luis for your always quick response to my questions. Thanks to people like you I am learning so much.

[Brent]

So Earl seems to have strengthened a bit. Interesting. 45 kt is 50 mph.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 151820
A. HURRICANE DANIELLE
B. 15/1731Z (57)
C. 15.1N/7
D. 33.4W/6
E. TWO/MET7
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS -15/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/ PBO SMALL IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY 42NM LG BAND WITH AN
EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 0.0 GIVING A CF OF 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. MET AND
PT AGREE.

AODT: T5.5 (CLEAR EYE)

WHALING

TPNT KGWC 151805
A. TROPICAL STORM EARL (FIVE)
B. 15/1715Z (59)
C. 12.1N/4
D. 62.5W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS -15/1715Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED ON DT.
PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION)

WHALING

[opera ghost]

hurricane mike- am I reading that right... Earl is at T4.5/ Danielle at T5.0?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

...DANIELLE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST OR ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH
...26 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.4 N... 33.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[Guest]

Thank god its a fishy....

[cycloneye]

Another major in 2004?

[PurdueWx80]

Thank god its a fishy....

Aren't you the one complaining about making assumptions too quickly?