Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[HURAKAN]

01/2345 UTC 12.5N 59.6W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[philnyc]

Don't look now, but wave #2 behind it is starting to get it's act together...



(I just annotated it to point them out)

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

752
WHXX01 KWBC 020035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC THU AUG 2 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070802 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070802  0000   070802  1200   070803  0000   070803  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  59.9W   13.4N  64.1W   14.6N  68.5W   16.0N  73.3W
BAMD    12.5N  59.9W   13.2N  63.1W   14.0N  66.3W   14.7N  69.6W
BAMM    12.5N  59.9W   13.2N  63.4W   14.1N  67.1W   15.0N  70.9W
LBAR    12.5N  59.9W   13.1N  63.5W   13.8N  67.4W   14.5N  71.4W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070804  0000   070805  0000   070806  0000   070807  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  77.9W   19.3N  86.4W   21.4N  92.7W   23.5N  96.4W
BAMD    15.4N  73.1W   16.2N  80.3W   16.3N  87.2W   16.4N  93.3W
BAMM    16.0N  74.8W   17.2N  82.4W   18.0N  89.5W   18.7N  95.3W
LBAR    15.5N  75.3W   17.1N  82.7W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        51KTS          69KTS          78KTS          79KTS
DSHP        51KTS          69KTS          61KTS          62KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.5N LONCUR =  59.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  11.8N LONM12 =  56.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  11.3N LONM24 =  53.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Blown Away]

01/2345 UTC 12.5N 59.6W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

If the center is at 12.5/59.6 the convection is racing away from the center. Not good news for 99L.

[HUC]

Hello to all. Some observations from Guadeloupe(south tip):winds a little stronger than normal,from the ENE,at 20 to 50kh in gusts,no rain,baro 1012mb at 16h local time(- 3 mb compare to the morning value).
Forecast is to some heavy thunder showers.
Any news from abajan in Barbados??

[Normandy]

Evening Thoughts,
I believe 99L has degraded in organization today....any spin that it had prior to reaching the islands has pretty much vanished and now its a wide open wave with convection a bit more disorganized. Im not so bullish on this becoming a TD anymore, but it still has a shot.

That being said, the diurnal max could push this over the edge as the environment now seems more conducive for development, so later tonight it might get over the hump....but for now it looks more disorganized.

[HURAKAN]

Evening Thoughts,
I believe 99L has degraded in organization today....any spin that it had prior to reaching the islands has pretty much vanished and now its a wide open wave with convection a bit more disorganized. Im not so bullish on this becoming a TD anymore, but it still has a shot.

That being said, the diurnal max could push this over the edge as the environment now seems more conducive for development, so later tonight it might get over the hump....but for now it looks more disorganized.

Here we go again. I have spoken (well, written) too much today to go over the same thing all over again. Every night, the same CD with the same song.

[Normandy]

^Tends to happen in this manner with disorganized systems in non-ideal conditions....Although conditions are a bit better now.

[philnyc]

Evening Thoughts,
I believe 99L has degraded in organization today....any spin that it had prior to reaching the islands has pretty much vanished and now its a wide open wave with convection a bit more disorganized. Im not so bullish on this becoming a TD anymore, but it still has a shot.

That being said, the diurnal max could push this over the edge as the environment now seems more conducive for development, so later tonight it might get over the hump....but for now it looks more disorganized.

Here we go again. I have spoken (well, written) too much today to go over the same thing all over again. Every night, the same CD with the same song.

LOL! This certainly IS getting to be an old tune...

[Annie Oakley]

Sorry to interject.I am new here-found you via KHOU forums-thanks so much for all the information! I am in Austin Texas and we try to stay ahead of the game.....all of you are helping tremendously! Hats off..........

[Ivanhater]

at least there is some convection with it...

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear Tendecy maps show increasing shear as it enters the Caribbean. That explains the convection racing away from the center. It'll probably gain convection during the diurnal maximum, but it maybe be blown away during the daytime hours tomorrow. The shear tendencies might change to decreasing shear, but right now shear doesn't seem so favorable for the system right now.

[Normandy]

Yes Ivanhater, the environment seems much more conducive for convective outbursts, so tonight should be fun.

[Ivanhater]

Yes Ivanhater, the environment seems much more conducive for convective outbursts, so tonight should be fun.

Well it better..cause I refuse to go to bed until I see some explosion!

[Derek Ortt]

that increasing shear is the OUTFLOW. It is not shear

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
Shear Tendecy maps show increasing shear as it enters the Caribbean. That explains the convection racing away from the center. It'll probably gain convection during the diurnal maximum, but it maybe be blown away during the daytime hours tomorrow. The shear tendencies might change to decreasing shear, but right now shear doesn't seem so favorable for the system right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

If you look that is because it is situated under an area of upper level high pressure. The problem isn't and hasn't been shear.. it is the low level convergence.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

[Cyclone1]

Yes Ivanhater, the environment seems much more conducive for convective outbursts, so tonight should be fun.

Well it better..cause I refuse to go to bed until I see some explosion!

Some people say "Just one more level, just one more level, just one more level". Storm2kers say, "Just one more convection flare up, Just one more convection flare up, Just one more convection flare up!" Lol.

[HurricaneHunter914]

that increasing shear is the OUTFLOW. It is not shear

Ok thanks! I'm only 14 so I'm still new at this TC stuff. I'm glad you told me that the shear was outflow because I was starting to think this would be another wave that would die off.

[windstorm99]

that increasing shear is the OUTFLOW. It is not shear

Hey derek any worries for south florida from this mess?Personally i dont see this pulling an ernesto on us this time.A westward track for the next couple of days seems reasonable to me.Adrian

[Ivanhater]

Yes Ivanhater, the environment seems much more conducive for convective outbursts, so tonight should be fun.

Well it better..cause I refuse to go to bed until I see some explosion!

Some people say "Just one more level, just one more level, just one more level". Storm2kers say, "Just one more convection flare up, Just one more convection flare up, Just one more convection flare up!" Lol.

haaa