GFS continues to develop African wave

[skysummit]

I have to say I am getting a *little* ancy considering the GFS is consistently targeting SE Florida. Even though it is 300 hours out it is AT LEAST consistent on its prediction.

What? It has been no where near consistent on Florida. It's been every where from the Yucatan to New York over the past many runs.

Actually gatorcane is right the GFS has put a tropical cyclone in florida in its runs the past couple of days.Ive seen it atleast 3-5 times.

Yes, it's been there, but has not been consistent with it. I agree it HAS been consistent switching back and forth from Florida to the northeast though. I've been watching every run since it has been showing this storm...about 11 runs in a row now. It's about half and half breaking the ridge and building the ridge, which is normal for that far out.

[windstorm99]

Yep...With all the SAL out in the eastern atlantic i see no worries through next week.

[Blown Away]

Could somebody post the link for the GFS 384hr loop. Thanks...

[cheezyWXguy]

If the GFS is consistent in anything, its the fact that it continuously develops this low coming off africa..now the UKMET has it happening, soon the others could be forecast development too. But the SAL is not strong...its large, but weak...a developing system would probably be slowed, but not killed. And that "U" shape Frank pointed out is probably because of a ULL in the middle of the Atlantic, though im not totally sure

[Weatherfreak14]

Could somebody post the link for the GFS 384hr loop. Thanks...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

[Sanibel]

I've seen enough to risk going with Derek and discounting GFS' storm. The SAL has completely evaporated all convection in the ITCZ. All waves exiting Africa have dissipated badly. Now that I've stuck my neck out it will probably form, but I'm convinced the models are failing to read the wicked SAL atmospheric that is currently denuding the entire basin. It is just overall negative out there. I think we'll have to wait past August 15th. I will allow that perhaps this one will suffer on its ride across and form near the Caribbean - but I doubt it.

[Vortex]

The SAL will NOT be a problem for this wave/low exiting friday afternoon...It's far enough south and the enviromental conditions are very favorable for development..

[Derek Ortt]

The models have no skill at predicting mid level moisture and some that I have closely analyzed, there is a high bias to the moisture fields

[Derek Ortt]

and evironmental conditions are not even close to very favorable for development. Not with the strong SAL, and weak monsoon trough

[Blown Away]

The GFS is setting a classic CV storm for the SE. The storm crosses at 20N/60W, which is in the Hebert Box, then moves over Florida, almost where Frances hit then skirts up the EC. These are the storms we have to wait until about 24 hours out to know if the ridge will be strong enough to carry the storm into FL or if the ridge will weaken a little allowing the storm to goto the Carolinas, I think this is why the model continues to flop back and forth from FL to Carolinas. Classic Florida vs Carolina's in the making on this board. I hope we have a long tracker that recurves just before hitting the CONUS.

[skysummit]

12z GFS rolling out...still consistent. It has the wave moving offshore within 30 hours now.

[windstorm99]

Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.

[x-y-no]

Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.

Weakens it from 1008mb to 1012mb by 60 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.

Weakens it from 1008mb to 1012mb by 60 hours.

back stronger at 72..lol

[Vortex]

H-72 Looking healthy...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[Vortex]

Where will the GFS end up today...We've had S fl, then NC, then the Yucatan, then NYC, then back to Florida on the last run....Hmmm I thinks its time for an out to sea run....

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.

Weakens it from 1008mb to 1012mb by 60 hours.

back stronger at 72..lol

Yup..did the same thing during the 0z last night, and I think the 6z also

[Vortex]

H-84 maintains a healthy look

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

I could be incorrect, but this run is initializing the upper-air environment very nicely - thus far, it appears to be the most realistic solution. It has been correctly analyzing the position of the low-level and 500 mbar ridges - it nails the pattern progression (troughs) over the CONUS. It actually depicts the current trough's wavelength near the Caribbean, too. I would give more credit to the GFS, especially because of the wave's close proximity to the coast within 24 hours. I think we may see a credible short-range solution from this run - I think it could initialize the sfc low correctly, too. I think we can trust this run for the first time, IMO.

[Ivanhater]

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