SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[CajunMama]

I've got a Winter Weather Advisory!!

I don't

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I've got a Winter Weather Advisory!!

Flood Warning
Winter Weather Advisory
Hazardous Weather Outlook

I am just west of Beaumont, in the community of Pinewood. I'm on the very southern edge of the WWA, so I'm not really expecting much. Interesting nonetheless!

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.A MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE FEATURES WITH A LINGERING COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AND SLEET MIXED WITH
THE RAIN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK AFTER SUNSET...MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW OR SLEET...WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL STICK FIRST
TO VEGETATION AND ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE ACCUMULATING ON SURFACE
ROADWAYS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. THE
SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO RAIN AND THEN COMING TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-110600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.WW.Y.0001.100212T0000Z-100213T0000Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
431 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY.

RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
MIX WITH SNOW AND SLEET AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK AFTER
SUNSET THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW
OR POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET...WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO
ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES PARISHES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR
SLEET ARE EXPECTED...WITH AMOUNTS THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1
INCH FROM OPELOUSAS TO LEESVILLE TO NEWTON. AMOUNTS AVERAGING A
1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Very unlikely there will be any accumulation south of Lufkin. Temperatures will be above freezing in all areas south of the Lufkin area and temperatures aloft will be marginal as well.

[southerngale]

Just kick me in the gut, Greg.

But yeah, I figured as much. I'm still hoping for a miracle, though!

Thanks for the update.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Just kick me in the gut, Greg.

But yeah, I figured as much. I'm still hoping for a miracle, though!

Thanks for the update.

Don't give up hope. 00Z NAM is cold enough around daybreak Friday to produce a mixture of sleet/snow to Interstate 10. Just unlikely to see any accumulations with temperatures above freezing. It will be interesting to see the 00Z GFS.

[srainhoutx]

Going to be a tough call. The NAM raises an eyebrow at this range IMHO.

[sphelps8681]

Greg, what is your thoughts about N. of 1-10 in Lumberton. I know things can change. I work for the HS school in Lumberton and don't want want to work on Monday to make up for any missed work.

Thanks

[southerngale]

Just kick me in the gut, Greg.

But yeah, I figured as much. I'm still hoping for a miracle, though!

Thanks for the update.

Don't give up hope. 00Z NAM is cold enough around daybreak Friday to produce a mixture of sleet/snow to Interstate 10. Just unlikely to see any accumulations with temperatures above freezing. It will be interesting to see the 00Z GFS.

Awesome! We've already seen some accumulation this winter. Just getting snow again, way down here, would be amazing. We're getting spoiled with all this winter weather the past few years.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Greg, what is your thoughts about N. of 1-10 in Lumberton. I know things can change. I work for the HS school in Lumberton and don't want want to work on Monday to make up for any missed work.

Thanks

I would expect there will be the risk that the precip could transition to a mixture of sleet/snow Friday morning before the moisture dries out. However, surface temperatures should be no colder than the middle 30's with no accumulations expected.

[sphelps8681]

Went out side to feed the dog and it was sleeting, just a little though.

[southerngale]

Just kick me in the gut, Greg.

But yeah, I figured as much. I'm still hoping for a miracle, though!

Thanks for the update.

Don't give up hope. 00Z NAM is cold enough around daybreak Friday to produce a mixture of sleet/snow to Interstate 10. Just unlikely to see any accumulations with temperatures above freezing. It will be interesting to see the 00Z GFS.

Was it any friendlier for our area than the earlier runs? I noticed you were a little more optimistic at 10pm than previously. And yeah, I realize that IF there's anything frozen, it shouldn't be significant. It's still exciting when there's even a chance, though.

[southerngale]

NWS just updated and has my location and even Beaumont with 50% snow/sleet overnight tonight!

Overnight: A chance of rain and sleet before midnight, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 38. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

I think it will be colder than that, as it's generally a little colder here than what NWS forecasts, often by several degrees. I'm not sure why they don't adjust their temps. There are numerous reporting stations around here to verify.

Btw, there have been reports of sleet in Beaumont tonight, as well as in Hardin County, per KFDM. (and NWS)

[LaBreeze]

Neaux Sneaux expected here - thankfully.

[srainhoutx]

Keep on eye on the Upper Low. GFS suggests a close call. Not unusual but ice is my concern. That's just my thoughts. These cold core systems have a history of surprises IMHO.

[LaBreeze]

Keep on eye on the Upper Low. GFS suggests a close call. Not unusual but ice is my concern. That's just my thoughts. These cold core systems have a history of surprises IMHO.

A close call for your area? I'm too close to the coast I presume - so no close call for my area, right?

[StormingB81]

Its always the black ice yo uhave to worry about!

[southerngale]

Lake Charles NWS late night thoughts...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1212 AM CST THU FEB 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND RE-ISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS PLANNED...BUT
DID MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET/SNOW TO START MIXING WITH THE
RAIN AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. AFTER EXAMINING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
THIS EVENING...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATIONS OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION ARE GOING TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE MID SHIFT
FORECASTER WILL HAVE A FULL PLATE TO CONTEND WITH.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
GOT A PUBLIC REPORT OF SLEET IN THE BEAUMONT AREA EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT SLEET
AND/OR SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN FOR THIS EVENING OVER EAST
TEXAS...THEN EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST TO MATCH UP WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF WINTRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A GOOD 3
TO 5 DEGREES...AND THIS MAY PROVE TO BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH...BUT
WANTED TO LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING.

WILL CONTINUE TO EXAMINE LATEST MODEL DATA FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...WILL STAY THE COURSE
WITH INHERITED ADVISORY.

And the updated Winter Weather Advisory...

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...

.A MID-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL HELP FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WITH A LINGERING COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
AND SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO
THE FREEZING MARK AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW OR SLEET...WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO
ACCUMULATE. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL STICK FIRST TO
VEGETATION AND ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE ACCUMULATING ON SURFACE
ROADWAYS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. THE
SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER EAST- CENTRAL LOUISIANA...BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO RAIN AND THEN COMING TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-111200-
/O.CON.KLCH.WW.Y.0001.100212T0000Z-100213T0000Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
1147 PM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
6 PM CST FRIDAY.

RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AND SLEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP
CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW OR POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME
SLEET...WHILE ALSO BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. AT THIS TIME THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES
PARISHES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR SLEET ARE EXPECTED...WITH
AMOUNTS THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1 INCH FROM OPELOUSAS TO
LEESVILLE TO NEWTON. AMOUNTS AVERAGING A 1/2 INCH EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[southerngale]

And just like that... my WWA is gone and all mentions of snow removed from my forecast. Strange... I thought the overnight models trended colder. The NWS forecast for snow or rain has been bouncing back and forth. I give up.



Btw, Jasper reported light snow about 4am and is now reporting unknown precip.

[attallaman]

And just like that... my WWA is gone and all mentions of snow removed from my forecast. Strange... I thought the overnight models trended colder. The NWS forecast for snow or rain has been bouncing back and forth. I give up.



Btw, Jasper reported light snow about 4am and is now reporting unknown precip.

If I get some I'll save some for you SG.

[PTrackerLA]

Pro mets if you don't mind chiming in, what are the chances of Lafayette receiving any frozen precipitation? Hard to believe Baton Rouge has a winter storm watch with 2"-3"+ of snow forecasted with a low of 34 tonight but Lafayette has all rain with a low of 34 as well. Even New Orleans metro if forecasted to receive a rain/snow/sleet mix with accumulation up to a 1/2". I know it's too warm to really stick around but a heavy wet snow would be great to see even if nothing sticks! If nothing else it looks like I wouldn't have too far to drive to see some snow Friday.

Let it snow!

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff Lindner:

Major Winter Storm affecting Texas.

Accumulating snow over N TX with winter mix likely over the northern 1/3rd of SE TX…some accumulation is possible.

Discussion:

Strong upper level low noted west of El Paso this morning spreading lift and moisture over the top of the cold air mass over TX. Band of moderate to heavy snow has developed from W TX to NW Louisiana including the DFW area where 1-2 inches is already on the ground. Locally, the low level air mass has warmed overnight ending the period of sleet many saw yesterday afternoon. The only exception is over our northern counties where profiles remain favorable for rain mixed with sleet along and north of a line from College Station to Corrigan. In fact the latest observations show snow being reported as far south as just north of Waco.

Main upper forcing and colder mid level temperatures will move across the state tonight with the core of the upper low. I am becoming a little more concerned than a changeover to all snow may occur over our northern counties given the cooling of the profiles and result in some accumulation. IN fact rain/sleet/snow mix may extend as far southward as a Hempstead to Conroe line early Friday morning. Will await the 12Z model guidance before going with a snow solution for the northern counties. Per NWS grids north of a line from College Station to Corrigan ½ -2 inches of slushy accumulation will be possible this afternoon into tonight with amounts of 2-6 inches over N TX and just east of our area over SW and WC LA where a few locations may see their greatest snowfall in over 3 decades.

Southward over the metro Houston area…the GFS and NAM forecast soundings remain warm enough to keep everything mostly liquid. The GFS does cool the profile toward 600am Friday toward freezing, but the layer of above freezing still looks deep enough to melt most of anything frozen (roughly 3,000-5,000 feet deep). Any slight deviation of the track of the upper low southward will bring more of the area under a winter mix of precip. and likely result in some greater amounts of accumulation.

Accumulations:

Surface temperatures will remain above freezing over all of the area today. Even in Dallas with snow falling and on the ground the air temp is only 32. The concern will be tonight (not that temps. will cool much), but that the P-type will change to more snow over our northern counties with snowfall rates increasing allowing accumulation even with temps above freezing. Feel at times moderate/heavy snow is possible over Madison, Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties resulting in some slushy accumulations of .5-2 inches. If temps. cool just 1-2 degrees even greater accumulations will be possible.

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be likely over the rest of the area under generally light rains with at times moderate rains.

Close watch on the trends today for the northern parts of our area…as with any winter weather threat fine lines in the details can make large forecast adjustments.