ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Gusty,

How are things down there.

Have winds picked up?

K

Absolutely not Knotimpaired. Weather is very hot and beautifull, no winds here.

[KWT]

Looks to me like the 280 motion is carrying on, not sure what that means for the islands but either way its going to be a close run thing!

Good job we've got so much recon to fly tomorrow to get an idea on whats going to happen.

[Valkhorn]

It's moving quickly, but not too fast that it can't strengthen.

Remember, Andrew reached category 5 twice while traveling west at over 20mph.

If I had a nickel for every time I heard someone say 'it's going to fast, it won't develop!"...

[Frank2]

Looks to me like the 280 motion is carrying on, not sure what that means for the islands but either way its going to be a close run thing!

As Jeff Masters said it'll be close, but on that azimuth it'll pass just north of the islands...

P.S. Also very critical that Danielle is moving slowly, so the trough will not have a chance to fill in as fast had it taken off to the northeast, as some models had forecast...

[KWT]

Whilst it looks like Earl is struggling a little right now the models do show a very favourable pattern developing around 24hrs time, quite a few of the models bomb this system between 48-72hrs, ECM for example down to 934mbs!!

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak:

28/1745 UTC 16.5N 53.3W T3.0/3.5 EARL

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 07, 2010082818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 533W, 50, 999, TS

60 mph, likely to remain at 55 mph

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AS OF 28/1800 UTC IS NEAR
16.1N 53.2W...OR ABOUT 660 MILES ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE STORM. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS EARL APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WNW IN A DAY
OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO
17N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

$$

GARCIA

[KWT]

Yeah Hurakan they likely will hold at 50kts unless we see signs of changes...

That being said convection is blowing up over the center now just like expected, probably will be a hurricane tomorrow IMO...outflow on the eastern side looks superb at the moment.

Also this one may well bomb out near the Islands if the models are right, though the current motion means it'll probably a close shave but just about missing...

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

18z

AL, 07, 2010082818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 533W, 50, 999, TS

60 mph, likely to remain at 55 mph

Unless it starts to deepen in the next 2 hours.

[Migle]

Looking better now. Still looks like two separate blobs, but the one just above 15N is looking good. I think were going to have Hurricane Earl tomorrow is this can continue. Stay safe everyone from the islands!

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 07, 2010082818, , BEST, 0, 162N, 533W, 50, 999, TS

60 mph, likely to remain at 55 mph

Unless it starts to deepen in the next 2 hours.

Of course, but I was referring to the fact that 55 mph isn't used in knots, meaning, 45 knots = 50 mph and 50 knots = 60 mph. 55 mph = 47.74 knots.

[msbee]

Gusty,

How are things down there.

Have winds picked up?

K

Absolutely not Knotimpaired. Weather is very hot and beautifull, no winds here.

Gusty
same conditions here. absolutely no wind. It is eerily calm

[ColinDelia]

Not exposed anymore. Some colder tops the past few hours

[cycloneye]

Gusty,

How are things down there.

Have winds picked up?

K

Absolutely not Knotimpaired. Weather is very hot and beautifull, no winds here.

Gusty
same conditions here. absolutely no wind. It is eerily calm

The calm before the storm as the saying. For those who may not know,there are many more cams as the Caribbean thread , link below at my signature.

[SunnyFla]

TWC just stated that Earl's continuing westward motion could affect the lower 48.

[HURAKAN]

If anyone out there is looking for someone to work at St. Marteen tracking hurricanes, please, contact me ASAP!!!!!

That image looks beautiful!!!

[fd122]

Today is definitely one of the hottest days of the summer. Clear blue skies, flat calm seas and not a trace of wind.

[msbee]

If anyone out there is looking for someone to work at St. Marteen tracking hurricanes, please, contact me ASAP!!!!!

That image looks beautiful!!!

come on down!