WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

I agree, recon should return. Storms near or as strong as Megi regularly occur in the Western Pacific. Imagine how scary that would be if there was recon Records after records broken

[JTE50]

Here is the twitter site for PAGASA. They have been posting updates : http://twitter.com/dost_pagasa It's 6am over there now.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 17.5N 123.8E GOOD
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 890HPA
MXWD 120KT
GUST 170KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 16.8N 119.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 191800UTC 16.9N 117.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 201800UTC 18.0N 115.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =



WTPQ20 BABJ 172100
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 172100 UTC
00HR 17.5N 123.9E 895HPA 72M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 110KM
P12HR W 20KM/H
P+24HR 17.1N 119.7E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 17.7N 116.7E 940HPA 50M/S
P+72HR 18.5N 113.9E 925HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 19.0N 112.6E 930HPA 52M/S
P+120HR 19.6N 111.3E 930HPA 52M/S=




TXPN23 KNES 172153
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 17/2030Z
C. 17.5N
D. 123.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.5/7.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/AMSRE/AMSU
H. REMARKS...DT=7.5 BASED ON W SURROUNDING TEMPERATURE WITH WMG
EYE AND CMG RING TEMPERATURE AND .5 FOR BANDING. CMG SURROUNDING
TEMPERATURE DOES NOT MEET WIDTH REQUIREMENTS. THIS SLIGHT DECREASE IN
CMG WIDTH HAS BEEN NOTED PAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER PREVIOUS (1430Z)
CLASSIFICATION. LATEST AUTOMATED DT FROM UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
CIMSS GIVES T7.5. MET=8.0...ALTHOUGH SLOW DEVELOPMENT CURVE WOULD GIVE
7.5. PT=7.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
17/1707Z 17.7N 124.1E AMSRE
17/1817Z 17.7N 124.0E AMSU
...RUMINSKI
=

[Crostorm]

[CrazyC83]

I agree, recon should return. Storms near or as strong as Megi regularly occur in the Western Pacific. Imagine how scary that would be if there was recon Records after records broken

Not to mention in other basins, records would be lucky to last 1 year after Recon started.

[apocalypt-flyer]

What a monster. I'm amazed how this one just kept intensifying and intensisying over the last 24. Whenever I thought 'Oh well, it has peaked' Megi goes on to shift it up another gear.

[hurricaneCW]

I definitely think MEGI is peaking, but you never want a super typhoon near its peak strength so close to land. It should weaken a bit prior to landfall but regardless, the effects will be devastating for parts of the region.

[KWT]

You don't see that type of IR loop very often, of a powerful 155kts system about to make landfall, there really are only a select few locations in the world that could see a landfall of such magnitude...the Phillippines is probably the king location in terms of major landmass.

[vbhoutex]

I definitely think MEGI is peaking, but you never want a super typhoon near its peak strength so close to land. It should weaken a bit prior to landfall but regardless, the effects will be devastating for parts of the region.

Unless it's track changes substantially, it appears that Tuguegarao is going to take the brunt of Megi. That will be devastating for them. I would expect massive damage just from the winds even though they are 30 miles inland. I hope I am wrong, but...

[vbhoutex]

http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/6779/megianim1710a.gif

That is just freaking scary to watch!!

[Tom8]

[Tstormwatcher]

Can you even imagine if a storm like that was about the hit the US?

[cebuboy]

scary indeed, in addition that it slowly trends south and headed for NCR!

[windysocks]

Do you remember how much media coverage Hurricane Igor had when it was heading for Bermuda? This one is far bigger, and going to affect a much more densely populated area. I'm surprised at how little coverage I'm seeing.

[KWT]

Yeah the winds are going to be extreme from this even if it were to weaken a little...which I should add doesn't really appear to be happening, probably still 150kts right now which is just going to cause unspeakable damage to anything caught in the path...

[Ptarmigan]

What a monsterous and impressive storm Megi is.

[Ptarmigan]

I agree, recon should return. Storms near or as strong as Megi regularly occur in the Western Pacific. Imagine how scary that would be if there was recon Records after records broken

We should have recon. If we did that today, there would be many storms that would challenge and beat Super Typhoon Tip.

[neospaceblue]

I have never seen TWC cover a typhoon like this before. Talked about it for three minutes at the beginning of the newscast.

[JTE50]

Now that's one scary image to wake up to.

[cycloneye]

If there is good news about the landfall,is that it will be in the daylight and not in the night when you can't see anything. Sending prayers from PR.