ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[jabman98]

Radar shows showers in the Bay City, Angleton areas in Texas. So a few coastal areas in Texas might get a bit of rain. Sadly, those of us inland seem pretty dry.

[Dave]

[Swimdude]

If you don't live in Texas / Louisiana or have visited in the past 3 months, you're only seeing the drought from a meterological point of view. The drought has been a financial disaster, an environmental disaster, and for many, a psychological disaster. Some places have had under an inch all summer. It's terrible to have so many close calls--yet no rain, no rain, no rain.

You should see the interstates... Lined with trees, but most of them brown and dead or well on their way.

[Turtle]

:uarrow: Yep now we are officially DONE. Why am I not surprised at all? Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Tell me about it!

I keep hearing that the ridge is going away, but isn't it part of the reason why the TS would not move north? This ridge needs to go away!!

[wxman57]

I can see evidence of a VERY WEAK LLC in the vicinity of 26.8N/91W. Too weak to classify, I think. But it would likely go straight to TS when that LLC gets better-defined. I'd look for an upgrade by 10am tomorrow.

[jabman98]

Love bugs are also out in full force suddenly. Distinctly remember them all over the place preparing for Gustav (3 years ago today).

Several years ago I drove from Houston to Atlanta and through the beginnings of a tropical storm (can't remember which one now). The entire front of my car was absolutely covered in love bugs. I had to stop and clean them off because I couldn't see out of the windshield. It was crazy.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro..96 hours....Stalling south of Louisiana. Man, that is bad flooding for the north central gulf coast



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[South Texas Storms]

I can see evidence of a VERY WEAK LLC in the vicinity of 26.8N/91W. Too weak to classify, I think. But it would likely go straight to TS when that LLC gets better-defined. I'd look for an upgrade by 10am tomorrow.

Where did the 12z models initiate 93L? Were they too far north?

[jabman98]

If you don't live in Texas / Louisiana or have visited in the past 3 months, you're only seeing the drought from a meterological point of view. The drought has been a financial disaster, an environmental disaster, and for many, a psychological disaster. Some places have had under an inch all summer. It's terrible to have so many close calls--yet no rain, no rain, no rain.

You should see the interstates... Lined with trees, but most of them brown and dead or well on their way.

Yeah, it's really terrible. Trees are dying all over the place. If we did get a lot of tropical moisture that caused flooding, or especially a strong TS or hurricane with winds, I think we'd have a real problem with limbs and trees down all over the place. Limbs just fall off trees at the moment because they're dying everywhere. But with a little wind to push them I think it could be a huge disaster. We really need the rain, but I worry what flooding and winds would do.

[Ivanhater]

120...just east of New Orleans



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[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 011810
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 12 20110901
180030 2658N 08930W 9577 00482 0114 +240 +231 144020 020 029 000 00
180100 2657N 08931W 9580 00480 0115 +239 +224 147020 021 030 000 00
180130 2656N 08932W 9582 00480 0116 +238 +226 152019 019 030 000 00
180200 2654N 08934W 9580 00482 0116 +241 +224 158019 021 030 000 00
180230 2653N 08935W 9580 00480 0114 +243 +228 159017 019 031 000 00
180300 2652N 08937W 9583 00477 0113 +245 +223 151014 015 030 000 00
180330 2651N 08938W 9580 00479 0112 +242 +230 153014 015 030 000 00
180400 2649N 08940W 9582 00475 0111 +241 +228 150015 015 029 000 00
180430 2648N 08941W 9582 00473 0109 +241 +221 149017 018 028 000 00
180500 2647N 08943W 9583 00473 0108 +245 +217 148019 020 028 000 00
180530 2646N 08944W 9583 00474 0110 +243 +218 152018 019 028 000 00
180600 2645N 08945W 9583 00471 0108 +240 +224 155016 017 028 000 00
180630 2643N 08947W 9582 00470 0105 +246 +223 153015 016 028 000 00
180700 2642N 08948W 9582 00470 0104 +246 +223 162012 013 028 000 00
180730 2641N 08949W 9582 00468 0103 +244 +220 171011 012 027 000 00
180800 2639N 08951W 9586 00463 0102 +246 +220 175009 010 028 000 00
180830 2638N 08952W 9585 00464 0100 +248 +218 181008 008 029 000 00
180900 2637N 08953W 9583 00465 0099 +245 +225 175011 011 033 004 00
180930 2635N 08955W 9584 00463 0099 +241 +236 175009 010 033 004 00
181000 2634N 08956W 9583 00463 0098 +243 +232 173011 011 035 008 00

[South Texas Storms]

If you don't live in Texas / Louisiana or have visited in the past 3 months, you're only seeing the drought from a meterological point of view. The drought has been a financial disaster, an environmental disaster, and for many, a psychological disaster. Some places have had under an inch all summer. It's terrible to have so many close calls--yet no rain, no rain, no rain.

You should see the interstates... Lined with trees, but most of them brown and dead or well on their way.

Oh yeah, it's absolute brutal here. It's so depressing seeing all the grass dead and brown and trees falling. It makes me want to cry.

[Portastorm]

I can see evidence of a VERY WEAK LLC in the vicinity of 26.8N/91W. Too weak to classify, I think. But it would likely go straight to TS when that LLC gets better-defined. I'd look for an upgrade by 10am tomorrow.

Where did the 12z models initiate 93L? Were they too far north?

OK STS, you're now thinking along the right lines. Before you jump off the ledge, you should check and see where the models are initializing the low and also we need to see how well (or not well) the models have a hold on the depth of this weekend's trough. And also, I'd like to see the ensemble runs before I get too hung up on an operational run.

[Bluefrog]

Love Bugs and Cicadas here too. Have been thinking the same thing.

I'm in Pascagoula about 3/4 mi off the beach .... breezy and definitely that tropical look and feel outside.

[djmikey]

Does the euro atleast bring it close to the TX/LA border before going east?

[DJJordan]

I can see evidence of a VERY WEAK LLC in the vicinity of 26.8N/91W. Too weak to classify, I think. But it would likely go straight to TS when that LLC gets better-defined. I'd look for an upgrade by 10am tomorrow.

I see that to Wxman ..... Also starting to see convection attempt to wrap around from the North .... I think an upgrade is in the works.

[ROCK]

Even if this does eventually head NE, I really hope the shear calms down so convection can wrap around on the western side and give Texas much needed tropical rain.

Ha, who are you kidding Ivan. I'm starting to feel like we aren't going to get a freakin drop here. This will be almost as heartbreaking as Don. Drought busting rains just 100 miles away. Wow. This is about as bad as it gets.

You are cracking under the pressure STS. This is the way of the tropics, it gives and takes away. Be patient.

and here I am picking the wrong time to stop sniffing glue... Thanks IVAN......

[Dave]

[South Texas Storms]

I can see evidence of a VERY WEAK LLC in the vicinity of 26.8N/91W. Too weak to classify, I think. But it would likely go straight to TS when that LLC gets better-defined. I'd look for an upgrade by 10am tomorrow.

Where did the 12z models initiate 93L? Were they too far north?

OK STS, you're now thinking along the right lines. Before you jump off the ledge, you should check and see where the models are initializing the low and also we need to see how well (or not well) the models have a hold on the depth of this weekend's trough. And also, I'd like to see the ensemble runs before I get too hung up on an operational run.

Yeah, that's true. You haven't given up hope yet?

[Ivanhater]

Does the euro atleast bring it close to the TX/LA border before going east?

It is further east than the 00z run unfortunantly