ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

Anyone else refreshing the nhc site like a madman?

No reason to. It'll show up on this board milliseconds after it hits the NHC.

[sma10]

Interesting. They already have 5 day point to SW FL

[toad strangler]

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move
near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and
near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.

Ooof ... NHC already highlighting the good possibility of going N of PR. If it goes N of PR it goes N of all of the islands.

[GeneratorPower]

70mph, just off the coast of Naples in 5 days per NHC forecast.

Whoa...I was not expecting to be in the center of the cone on day 5.

[caneseddy]

Key point from discussion

if the system gains more latitude and moves north of
these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for
more significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast, which
is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

[Kazmit]

[Kazmit]

Well north of the GAs too.

[toad strangler]

Interesting. They already have 5 day point to SW FL

50 yard line

[NDG]

The initial track has it making landfall in the upper Keys, moving NW, by day 5 just 25 west of Naples, FL.

[galaxy401]

Yikes, the end of that cone looks very concerning. I know those cones aren't the most reliable but still something to monitor down the line. Maybe the models can finally start being useful now that we have a TD.

[StruThiO]

Yikes at that cone.

[sma10]

And guess what? Not a peep about the fact that GFS and EURO spin out a nothing burger, and that is quite revealing

[gfsperpendicular]

https://img.techpowerup.org/200820/025357-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

Looks slightly north of TVCN, clear of the GAs and into the GoM.

[Kazmit]

And guess what? Not a peep about the fact that GFS and EURO spin out a nothing burger, and that is quite revealing

Not even relevant enough to mention, lol.

[toad strangler]

gatorcane, is this a threat from the E?

[sma10]

And guess what? Not a peep about the fact that GFS and EURO spin out a nothing burger, and that is quite revealing

Not even relevant enough to mention, lol.

It tells me they don't really buy it

[SFLcane]

I bet next advisory they will take it to cane. If it avoids land I see no reason it won’t be a hurricane in FL.

[Cataegis96]

That discussion does not mention any other inhibitors to development besides land interaction...

[aspen]

That’s significantly north of the Greater Antilles; only the later, larger parts of the cone go over Cuba. And the NHC has already given it a forecast peak of 60 kt, just shy of a hurricane while it’ll be passing through 30-31C SSTs in the Bahamas.

I’ve got a feeling future Laura could be a big one...

[Evil Jeremy]

And guess what? Not a peep about the fact that GFS and EURO spin out a nothing burger, and that is quite revealing

Not even relevant enough to mention, lol.

It tells me they don't really buy it

Of course they don't buy it, but that's not surprising. Many of us here weren't buying it. We've seen that song play out so many times, including this year. When it comes to cyclone-genesis, the models are never a substitute for your own eyes.