ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[beachnut]

No TS warnings for the Keys and the west coast?

No, but our local NBC weather app radar out of Fort Myers has been showing TS watches along our coast since early this morning.

[tropicwatch]

Just noticed the vortex message position, it was just barely feet wet.

[Aric Dunn]

Just about to come ashore again on marco island. well off all the model tracks.

[ronjon]

Still looks like the midlevel center trying to catch up to the LLC which is just SE of Marco. Its getting closer but still seems a little to the SE. Some convection trying to wrap around the north side of the LLC on Radar.

[tropicwatch]

Just about to come ashore again on marco island. well off all the model tracks.

If that is accurate, it must have re-formed up there. Doubt it moved 30 miles in an hour.

[boca]

I just drove from Boca Raton to Islamorada and the wind it’s 35 to 45 mph and driving rain

[Aric Dunn]

Just about to come ashore again on marco island. well off all the model tracks.

If that is accurate, it must have re-formed up there. Doubt it moved 30 miles in an hour.

nope just been moving NW along the coast most of the day. been easily trackable.

[Nimbus]

Man, the Keys are getting POUNDED

Lol, came down to Key West yesterday. Holy smokes the rainfall and the town is flooding quickly with high tide coming. Some 30-45 mph gusts.

Around noon a fast moving squall line came through the Tampa bay area.
I was taking shelter under some trees when I heard a loud snap and a dead Palm frond landed nearby.
So this has a wide wind field if you include 30 second squalls.

[tropicwatch]

Just about to come ashore again on marco island. well off all the model tracks.

If that is accurate, it must have re-formed up there. Doubt it moved 30 miles in an hour.

nope just been moving NW along the cast most of the day. been easily trackable.

The vortex message position was less than an hour ago and it was approximately 30 miles from Marco Island at that time.

[FLpanhandle91]

Are we tracking this as the LLC or an eddy?

[wxman57]

Just about to come ashore again on marco island. well off all the model tracks.

Surface obs indicate center is southwest of Marco Island.

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.ibb.co/WkyLF5K/20200912-142318.png

Are we tracking this as the LLC or an eddy?

That is the LLC.. no other eddys from recon.

[Aric Dunn]

Just about to come ashore again on marco island. well off all the model tracks.

Surface obs indicate center is well west of Marco Island. Radar center is mid-level.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally1.JPG

No

[Sanibel]

Agree on Marco center...

You should see the classic cyclonic clouds overhead here...

[ConvergenceZone]

I think once it clears land it will looking better for a symmetry standpoint. As WXMAN says, look for a Cat 1 to hit the North Gulf States. If I were to guess,I'd say 80 MPH at landfall....So wind wouldn't be a big issue. But once it hits land it will be slowing down, so really worried about the flooding rains.

Why do you think it won't strengthen more than that? It will have plenty of time over gulf.

This is probably a question you want to ask WXMAN, Since he's a PRO Meteorologist who mentioned that....I think perhaps that his reasoning is that it will take awhile for it to get established and Shear is expected as it gets closer to land... Now I can't say if WXMAN is seeing something in additional to that. I just respect his opinion as a pro meteorologist who've very knowledgeable when it comes to hurricanes and their development.

Now I'm not sure what MPH WXMAN is forecasting when he said CAT 1. Perhaps he's looking at more of a mid-range or high-range Cat 1

[tropicwatch]

[NevadaFan18]

Looking back on the 12z HWRF, it looks like it correctly predicted a shift north to near Marco Island from 12z-18z today. It's been nailing the short term for Sally, really hoping it doesn't nail the long term

[wxman57]

Another poorly organized TS with hard to find TS winds.

[Keldeo1997]

Recon is heading into WXMAN67's LLC so we will find out for sure

[lester]

Surface obs indicate center is southwest of Marco Island. Radar center is mid-level.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally1.JPG

No

Yes

Maybe?

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