ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#801 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#802 Postby MBryant » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I do want to mention that today was the landfall of 2 Hurricanes in the Houston NWS Area . . .

Humberto (CAT 1, 2007)
Ike (CAT 2, 2008)

The center of Humberto missed me by at least 200 feet. LOL!
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#803 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:Doesn't make sense to ignore SFMR measurements and go with FL and Doppler conversion in a sheared environment. Not a 55kt storm.

I agree but coming from the NHC I assume they know something we don't.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#804 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:11 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Doesn't make sense to ignore SFMR measurements and go with FL and Doppler conversion in a sheared environment. Not a 55kt storm.

I agree but coming from the NHC I assume they know something we don't.


Probably making sure people don't get their guards down. We know these systems perform better at night. I don't know.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#805 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:17 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Doesn't make sense to ignore SFMR measurements and go with FL and Doppler conversion in a sheared environment. Not a 55kt storm.

I agree but coming from the NHC I assume they know something we don't.


Probably making sure people don't get their guards down. We know these systems perform better at night. I don't know.


That is their main mission, to protect the public. However, winds aloft to surface conversion is only valid in the eyewall of a non-sheared system. Cannot use Doppler winds at 10,000 ft to estimate surface winds if there is shearing. Stewart likely knows that, but doesn't want the public to relax.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#806 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:23 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#807 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:33 pm

KBQX, 28.314 N 95.620 W, 40 kt ENE wind It is on the weak side. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kbqx
Last edited by xironman on Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#808 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:34 pm

A little more than 3 inches at my house so far today we will see how much rain I get tonight but it would not surprise me at all to reach 10 inches today or even more considering I am close to the coast.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#809 Postby LARanger » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:37 pm

underthwx wrote:Could you possibly highlight the center?...


That's just mean, man.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#810 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:42 pm

IcyTundra wrote:A little more than 3 inches at my house so far today we will see how much rain I get tonight but it would not surprise me at all to reach 10 inches today or even more considering I am close to the coast.


I am thinking landfall at San Luis Pass. I think that is Galveston county.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#811 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:44 pm

xironman wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:A little more than 3 inches at my house so far today we will see how much rain I get tonight but it would not surprise me at all to reach 10 inches today or even more considering I am close to the coast.


I am thinking landfall at San Luis Pass. I think that is Galveston county.


It is
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#812 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:46 pm

LARanger wrote:
underthwx wrote:Could you possibly highlight the center?...


That's just mean, man.


Wdym?.....I only asked for the center to be circled...because I wasn't sure where it was on the image...for my reference only.....this is a good example why I hesitate to post anything'....
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#813 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:48 pm

underthwx wrote:
LARanger wrote:
underthwx wrote:Could you possibly highlight the center?...


That's just mean, man.


Wdym?.....I only asked for the center to be circled...because I wasn't sure where it was on the image...for my reference only.....this is a good example why I hesitate to post anything'....
The thing is, there are currently 3 or so centers right now.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#814 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:51 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
xironman wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:A little more than 3 inches at my house so far today we will see how much rain I get tonight but it would not surprise me at all to reach 10 inches today or even more considering I am close to the coast.


I am thinking landfall at San Luis Pass. I think that is Galveston county.


It is


Nice cold cloud tops popping up around the final center. Your in a good spot.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#815 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:54 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
underthwx wrote:
LARanger wrote:
That's just mean, man.


Wdym?.....I only asked for the center to be circled...because I wasn't sure where it was on the image...for my reference only.....this is a good example why I hesitate to post anything'....
The thing is, there are currently 3 or so centers right now.


Again....I was only requesting a point of reference...and at the time I posted my request for information....I was unaware of multiple centers..sorry if I my request was misinterpreted...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#816 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:58 pm

xironman wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
xironman wrote:
I am thinking landfall at San Luis Pass. I think that is Galveston county.


It is


Nice cold cloud tops popping up around the final center. Your in a good spot.

https://i.imgur.com/2wFbu9P.jpg


Yikes. Houston is still going to get some nasty weather with those blowups.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#817 Postby wx98 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:58 pm

If it keeps on current heading, it will hit land at Matagorda Bay or just east (northeast).
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#818 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:01 pm

underthwx wrote:
LARanger wrote:
underthwx wrote:Could you possibly highlight the center?...


That's just mean, man.


Wdym?.....I only asked for the center to be circled...because I wasn't sure where it was on the image...for my reference only.....this is a good example why I hesitate to post anything'....


Haha, I think it was a joke. I have no clue where the center is.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#819 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:06 pm

tolakram wrote:
underthwx wrote:
LARanger wrote:
That's just mean, man.


Wdym?.....I only asked for the center to be circled...because I wasn't sure where it was on the image...for my reference only.....this is a good example why I hesitate to post anything'....


Haha, I think it was a joke. I have no clue where the center is.



Lol....that makes two of us....
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#820 Postby IcyTundra » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:10 pm

SoupBone wrote:
xironman wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
It is


Nice cold cloud tops popping up around the final center. Your in a good spot.

https://i.imgur.com/2wFbu9P.jpg


Yikes. Houston is still going to get some nasty weather with those blowups.


Especially those closer to the coast.
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