ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeaBrz_FL]

Here in Canaveral (1/2 mi from shoreline), quite windy (steady 12 mph, gusts 22) and ocean is roaring. Earlier today, locals (voter line, lots of Space retirees) were a bit upset that NASA did not roll Artemis SLS back to the VAB from the Pad, but somehow the NASA Mets are usually right. Anyway, sorry for any of you that do get this storm, especially those affected by Ian. Let’s add “End This Storm Season” to the ballot!

[sikkar]

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/
Coming in view.

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Did not shutter here in Jupiter. Thinking worst case is Irene 1999 kind of scenario. But really hope I don’t wake up to a big surprise. Will have to do some last minute prep (though have water, canned stuff etc etc already)

I’m about 20 minutes north of you and haven’t shuttered yet either. I’ll have to do it in the morning if it’s still headed this way.

I’m not shuttering in PSL West.

If I wake up and it’s forecast to be a CAT 2 coming in to our south then I’ll put them up. But as forecast a potential low end Cat 1 to my north I don’t expect it to be too bad here. Probably about the same as Ian was for us.

[Michele B]

Eye? https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1318/gyC4Bv.jpg

I think it's a dry slot but might be an eye in the making. I know recon said it was open to the east.

That is a legitimate eye

U

But is it still not some dry air intrusion on the south and/or east side?

[kunosoura]

Did not shutter here in Jupiter. Thinking worst case is Irene 1999 kind of scenario. But really hope I don’t wake up to a big surprise. Will have to do some last minute prep (though have water, canned stuff etc etc already)

I’m about 20 minutes north of you and haven’t shuttered yet either. I’ll have to do it in the morning if it’s still headed this way.

Also in Jupiter. Haven't decided on shutters or not. Flying back to PBI tomorrow at noon (hopefully) and will make a decision then.

[aspen]

This latest recon pass supports 60 kt/983 mbar. The highest winds look to be in the NW quadrant.

[fci]

Did not shutter here in Jupiter. Thinking worst case is Irene 1999 kind of scenario. But really hope I don’t wake up to a big surprise. Will have to do some last minute prep (though have water, canned stuff etc etc already)

I live in Lake Worth and this morning not one house in my community; at least on the main circle; had shutters (panels) up.
With the exception of a couple that have the pull across ones.
Our community usually has them up pretty early, I get yelled at by my wife for waiting ....

[Steve H.]

Looks like Nicole is drying up. Could be temporary, but definitely doesn’t look as good as she did 12 hours ago

[wxman57]

Nicole is definitely battling dry air. That won't change up until landfall. I still think it will peak in the next 12-24 hours then weaken as it nears Florida. Dewpoint down to 34 in Savannah and low to mid 50s across NE FL. Lots of dry air moving south for Nicole to feed on. WSW jog was always expected. Just a question of where it starts from. Nicole's winds should weaken quickly inland. By the time it reaches southern GA, any TS winds will be offshore NE FL and GA. Nothing around the center. Time to relax. Shift starts 5am again tomorrow.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like Nicole is drying up. Could be temporary, but definitely doesn’t look as good as she did 12 hours ago

Convection died down a little bit. I’m guessing it’s temporary, nhc expects it to become a hurricane over night

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nicole is shriveling up. There is only meager convection at this point.

[KirbyDude25]

Looks like Nicole is drying up. Could be temporary, but definitely doesn’t look as good as she did 12 hours ago

Convection died down a little bit. I’m guessing it’s temporary, nhc expects it to become a hurricane over night

Nicole managed to bottom out the raw T value at 1.5, likely because of that near-dead convection. Besides showing how raw T is often misleading, it definitely shows the effect that the dry air had. I agree that it'll likely recover, probably with a lot of help from DMAX

[InfernoFlameCat]

It is neat viewing the core of a well organized cyclone without the cirrus shield. Its a mature cyclone.

[toad strangler]

Nicole is shriveling up. There is only meager convection at this point.

Yet pressure keeps dropping.

[GCANE]

If you look at the WV imagery here
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid
its not so much dry air is the problem

The problem is on this image
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Its getting into the orange stuff which is a PV streamer.
The orange shows high altitude cold air coming down into the core.
If Nicole where in the blue, she would be a beast.

Also, this image shows height on vertical axis and distance from core on horizontal axis.
http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc ... 2_tano.gif

Temperature anomaly is shown as a function of these two distances.
There needs to be a cold area just above the surface of the ocean to pull heat out of the ocean and fuel the TC.
That would be shown by negative temperature anomaly. However, in this case its positive, meaning its not pulling heat out of the water.

[GCANE]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

[NDG]

Nicole is definitely battling dry air. That won't change up until landfall. I still think it will peak in the next 12-24 hours then weaken as it nears Florida. Dewpoint down to 34 in Savannah and low to mid 50s across NE FL. Lots of dry air moving south for Nicole to feed on. WSW jog was always expected. Just a question of where it starts from. Nicole's winds should weaken quickly inland. By the time it reaches southern GA, any TS winds will be offshore NE FL and GA. Nothing around the center. Time to relax. Shift starts 5am again tomorrow.

The latest 18z HWRF showed nicely the convection wining down this evening before firing back up after midnight, the same model which still shows it becoming a hurricane before landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like Nicole is drying up. Could be temporary, but definitely doesn’t look as good as she did 12 hours ago

Convection died down a little bit. I’m guessing it’s temporary, nhc expects it to become a hurricane over night

Nicole managed to bottom out the raw T value at 1.5, likely because of that near-dead convection. Besides showing how raw T is often misleading, it definitely shows the effect that the dry air had. I agree that it'll likely recover, probably with a lot of help from DMAX

You can see it in the radar loop. As soon as it ingested that dry air the leading storms fell right off.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looking like what you'd receive if you ordered post tropical cyclone Fiona off of wish this evening.