ATL: MILTON - Models

[fllawyer]

HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.

Is this S of 00z and 18z runs?

[xironman]

HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.

It then gets ripped by shear and dry air into landfall, not buying it.

[chris_fit]

HAFS-A appears to be South and East of the previous run at 48 hrs

[TampaWxLurker]

HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.

Is this S of 00z and 18z runs?

South and slower.

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS Trend…

[BobHarlem]

12z Hafs-b Redington beach, a little right/south of 6z. Exits to Atlantic just south of New Smyrna Beach.

[toad strangler]

12z UKMET into Tampa Bay and then does that hard East turn we have been seeing in many models across the peninsula directly afterwards

[aspen]

The 12z HAFS-A/B show an EWRC starting later this afternoon/early evening, but it rapidly completes (so more of an eyewall meld) and Milton explodes again tomorrow, reaching an even stronger peak.

HAFS-B gets Milton down to 897 mbar tonight before the EWRC kicks in, then down to 884 mbar tomorrow while north of the Yucatan Channel.

[MrJames]

12z UKMET


Prior 00z run

[BobHarlem]

12z HAFS-A goes up the bay. Slight right/south shift from 6z.

[chris_fit]

Son of Biscuit - These 12z Models are clobbering Tampa Bay.... wow

[chris_fit]

12z EURO -- Damn Tampa

[ronjon]

Models converging on Tampa Bay metro. One thing I think could alter this path is if the system were to slow down from current projections. Some of the models are showing an abrupt east or east-northeast turn right at landfall. If Milton slows down and doesn't reach the latitude of Tampa when this turn occurs, I could see the storm move east further south. Or alternatively, does the storm hit the west to east shear zone at Tampa's latitude which causes the turn?

[NDG]

12z Euro is identical to its earlier 06z run, Pinellas County.

[CronkPSU]

Milton wants to do Busch Gardens and then head to Disney and Universal and then off to Daytona with these latest models...the full I4 experience

[skillz305]

The direct cut east is kinda worrisome for the treasure coast here

[MrJames]

12z Euro

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[KC7NEC]

Really starting to get consensus on an absolute worse case scenario for Tampa.

[fsucory08]

The direct cut east is kinda worrisome for the treasure coast here

Especially because it's really a timing thing. If Milton slows down on approach, would not have a lot of warning of an abrupt right turn. Just another thing to watch for. Wonder if the NHC shifts the track after landfall.