ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alienstorm]

I project landfall by 9 PM tonight.

[Michele B]

Hermine, 2010:



Looks almost the same.

Family resemblance?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011725
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 26 20160901
171600 2715N 08605W 8435 01494 0017 +173 +173 304046 047 048 007 00
171630 2714N 08606W 8429 01503 0019 +172 +172 307047 047 050 005 00
171700 2713N 08608W 8427 01508 0019 +173 +173 305044 047 048 007 00
171730 2711N 08609W 8434 01506 0020 +178 +172 304042 043 046 003 00
171800 2710N 08610W 8429 01509 //// +174 //// 303042 043 046 001 01
171830 2710N 08610W 8429 01509 0028 +174 +169 300039 040 044 000 01
171900 2708N 08613W 8430 01513 0028 +181 +153 298042 043 043 000 00
171930 2707N 08614W 8431 01517 0030 +181 +155 298044 045 042 000 00
172000 2706N 08615W 8429 01520 0028 +187 +151 298043 044 041 001 00
172030 2705N 08617W 8428 01521 0030 +186 +150 301042 043 040 001 00
172100 2704N 08618W 8430 01520 0036 +180 +153 304041 042 040 001 00
172130 2703N 08619W 8430 01525 0041 +173 +157 307040 041 039 000 00
172200 2702N 08620W 8432 01527 0043 +176 +156 305040 040 037 001 03
172230 2700N 08620W 8427 01528 0045 +175 +162 300040 040 /// /// 03
172300 2700N 08618W 8436 01521 0042 +177 +163 297040 040 038 001 00
172330 2700N 08616W 8426 01530 0040 +177 +165 296041 042 040 000 00
172400 2659N 08614W 8429 01524 0040 +175 +167 293043 044 039 001 00
172430 2659N 08612W 8431 01521 0041 +174 +167 292044 044 039 000 00
172500 2659N 08609W 8431 01521 0039 +174 +166 289045 046 039 000 00
172530 2658N 08607W 8433 01521 0037 +177 +161 289046 047 042 000 00
$$
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

Storm looks like it may be struggling a bit...intensity may max out soon...maybe not. We shall see.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 1:25pm EDT:

[BRweather]

Storm looks like it may be struggling a bit...intensity may max out soon...maybe not. We shall see.

It is is filtering out some dry air as detected by recon. That with combination of trying wrap convection all the way around center is using up energy. Won't be long. Expect 980mb at landfall IMO

[GCANE]

Looks like an eyewall hot tower may pop up east of the CoC

[RL3AO]

Sigh...you can't fix stupid.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/771350390306660352

[tropicwatch]

Looks like eastern eyewall starting to show up on radar out of Tampa and Northern eyewall almost showing up on Panama City radar I believe.

http://tropicwatch.info

[Sanibel]

When it turned N it developed. It was obvious.

[BRweather]

On the next pass, I would expect a substantial drop in pressure. Convection almost all the way around COC and outflow is only going to get better from here on

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011735
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 27 20160901
172600 2658N 08605W 8429 01525 0036 +179 +158 287046 047 042 001 00
172630 2657N 08603W 8432 01519 0037 +176 +163 287048 049 042 000 00
172700 2657N 08600W 8429 01523 0036 +180 +164 282048 049 042 000 00
172730 2656N 08558W 8432 01521 0038 +175 +163 282050 051 043 001 00
172800 2656N 08556W 8437 01514 0037 +177 +159 280050 051 042 001 00
172830 2655N 08554W 8423 01527 0035 +182 +152 277049 050 043 001 00
172900 2655N 08551W 8431 01520 0033 +184 +151 275047 049 043 001 00
172930 2654N 08549W 8430 01521 0035 +184 +151 276049 050 044 000 00
173000 2654N 08547W 8430 01524 0034 +180 +153 273050 051 042 000 00
173030 2653N 08545W 8429 01522 0034 +184 +148 271049 049 042 001 00
173100 2653N 08542W 8429 01521 0032 +185 +145 270050 050 043 001 00
173130 2652N 08540W 8428 01525 0035 +185 +145 268050 050 043 001 00
173200 2652N 08538W 8436 01517 0034 +187 +144 267050 050 042 001 00
173230 2651N 08536W 8429 01526 0035 +190 +141 266050 051 044 000 00
173300 2651N 08534W 8432 01525 0037 +190 +142 262049 050 041 001 00
173330 2650N 08531W 8429 01529 0040 +184 +148 255050 050 040 001 00
173400 2650N 08529W 8432 01528 0045 +180 +161 251050 051 040 001 00
173430 2650N 08527W 8432 01529 0045 +180 +161 248049 050 040 001 00
173500 2649N 08525W 8427 01534 0044 +184 +159 246052 053 040 001 00
173530 2649N 08523W 8430 01530 0047 +180 +163 244052 053 040 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

These east wobbles make it more likely that Hermine will return to the ocean rather than run the beaches?

[RL3AO]

Storm surge warning extended to Tampa Bay area.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/771402831224041472

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Zarniwoop]

Sigh...you can't fix stupid.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/771350390306660352

Those idiots will be the ones putting someone ELSE's life on the line when that camper floats out into a raging storm.

[alienstorm]

There are going to be nasty squall lines affecting the state all the way down to the keys, this reminds me of the March storm in 1993.

[Aric Dunn]

77kt fl

[Hurricane Andrew]

Sigh...you can't fix stupid.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/771350390306660352

Those idiots will be the ones putting someone ELSE's life on the line when that camper floats out into a raging storm.

Yup. First responders will always follow their obligation to the protection of life, even if it is the result of stupid descisions. Hoping FL police and fire and medical stay safe out there.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011745
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 28 20160901
173600 2648N 08521W 8430 01534 0048 +178 +161 247053 053 039 000 00
173630 2648N 08518W 8426 01537 0051 +174 +165 247052 053 038 001 00
173700 2647N 08516W 8432 01532 0051 +174 +168 246053 054 039 000 00
173730 2647N 08514W 8429 01535 0048 +180 +161 241051 053 038 000 00
173800 2646N 08512W 8430 01534 0051 +178 +163 239050 051 038 000 00
173830 2646N 08510W 8432 01534 0055 +173 +168 237048 050 038 000 00
173900 2645N 08508W 8428 01538 0058 +169 +168 237047 048 039 000 00
173930 2645N 08506W 8433 01536 //// +165 //// 238045 047 046 001 01
174000 2644N 08504W 8425 01545 //// +161 //// 234045 046 048 001 01
174030 2644N 08502W 8429 01539 //// +170 //// 237047 049 049 003 01
174100 2644N 08500W 8433 01533 //// +170 //// 237047 048 049 003 01
174130 2643N 08458W 8423 01546 0061 +173 +171 233053 062 050 007 00
174200 2643N 08456W 8419 01554 0069 +172 +172 223065 067 051 017 03
174230 2642N 08454W 8440 01529 0076 +166 +166 213067 068 058 043 03
174300 2642N 08452W 8426 01541 0079 +163 +163 215068 070 056 045 00
174330 2641N 08450W 8430 01541 0083 +162 +162 218071 072 052 034 00
174400 2641N 08448W 8431 01542 0081 +166 +166 219070 072 048 020 03
174430 2641N 08446W 8430 01536 0077 +175 +175 220067 069 047 017 03
174500 2640N 08444W 8437 01534 0083 +168 +168 220074 077 048 013 00
174530 2640N 08442W 8429 01542 0083 +167 +167 218073 073 050 012 03
$$
;

77 kt FL, 58 kt SFMR south of the center.