ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Jevo]

18z GFS +36



18z GFS +42

[CronkPSU]

so what are the surface winds according to recon?

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262148
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 21 20110826
213900 3315N 07814W 6964 03044 9949 +078 +007 065070 072 054 007 00
213930 3315N 07816W 6966 03043 9967 +068 +007 062071 071 057 015 00
214000 3315N 07819W 6958 03058 9972 +064 +006 056073 075 055 012 00
214030 3316N 07821W 6971 03047 9999 +048 +005 044064 067 056 015 00
214100 3316N 07824W 6959 03061 9991 +054 +001 035063 064 049 013 00
214130 3316N 07826W 6966 03054 9965 +076 -003 032065 066 049 010 00
214200 3316N 07828W 6968 03057 9952 +091 -008 030067 068 050 007 00
214230 3317N 07831W 6963 03061 9959 +085 -010 030066 067 049 007 00
214300 3317N 07833W 6961 03065 9965 +081 -011 029066 067 049 007 00
214330 3317N 07835W 6965 03061 9963 +086 -010 031066 067 049 007 00
214400 3317N 07837W 6969 03062 9972 +082 -009 034063 063 049 006 00
214430 3318N 07840W 6963 03074 9980 +077 -008 036064 064 047 005 00
214500 3318N 07842W 6964 03072 9984 +075 -006 038064 064 046 004 00
214530 3318N 07845W 6965 03075 9984 +080 -005 036064 065 046 004 00
214600 3318N 07847W 6967 03072 9984 +081 -004 035063 063 045 004 00
214630 3319N 07849W 6963 03080 9985 +081 -004 034063 063 045 005 03
214700 3319N 07852W 6963 03079 9991 +077 -003 035063 063 045 007 00
214730 3319N 07854W 6967 03080 0003 +071 -003 034064 064 047 011 00
214800 3319N 07856W 6963 03086 0012 +067 -003 034064 064 047 014 03
214830 3319N 07859W 6958 03101 0025 +063 -003 031063 064 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Hurricaneman]

It might just be me but this looks like its keeping its energy through both barotropic and baroclinic processes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WxGuy1]

I'm not sure 1 mb pressure drop constitutes a sign that appreciable intensification is underway -- heck 1 mb may be within the margin of error (or 90% confidence interval) of the pressure observations. However, it could be a sign that weakening has stopped, but we'll need another center fix or two to know for sure.

The latest surface wind speed analysis from HRD is available at ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL092011/0826/1930/AL092011_0826_1930_contour02.png. From that analysis, there are no hurricane force winds in the southwest quadrant of the storm. The winds in the northwest quad peak just above Cat 1 threshold, and the winds in the NE and SE quadrants are a little more solid Cat 1. Note that the analysis shows a peak wind of 77 kts to the east of the center; there are no Cat 2 winds in that analysis (based on Doppler radar aboard aircraft recon as well as in-situ and dropsonde observations).

A rather lengthy arc of dry air is seen entraining into the core of Irene on satellite imagery from this afternoon, indicating that Irene has wrapped up some drier air that lies to its southwest through north. Sfc obs don't reveal this dry air, but tropopspheric soundings from some locations in the southeastern U.S. reveal very dry mid-levels. For example, the GSO and RNK soundings sampled <10% relative humidity (RH) in the 550-300 mb layer several hours ago (1800 UTC). KFFC (Atlanta area) was a little more moist, but still showed RH <30% in the middle of the troposphere. Measured precipitable water (PW) at FFC and RNK were <1.40". Current UW CIMSS wind shear analysis continues to show 10-20 kts of deep-tropospheric shear over most of Irene. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear, dry air, and a rather messy inner core does not suggest that appreciable intensification is likely. That doesn't mean it's not possible -- it's just not likely. Thus, the NHC has toned down the forecast max wind speeds.

I'll reiterate that this should NOT mean that you should let your guard down. Do NOT let your guard down. If the local authorities tell you to evacuate, you should follow their orders. There is still the possibility that Irene could pulse back up in intensity tonight, and it could get back into a more solid Cat 2 range before the NC landfall or close call. This doesn't seem very likely considering how disorganized Irene currently is (particularly its inner core) and how very spread out Irene's wind field is. Continue to plan for appreciable flooding potential, and be careful out and about in case trees fall victim to the winds and wet soils!

[tolakram]

It might just be me but this looks like its keeping its energy through both barotropic and baroclinic processes

Can you explain what you mean by that and how you come to that conclusion, for non baro... types like me?

[Jevo]

18Z GFS +45 (Long Island Express)



18z GFS +51 (New England Bound)

[Macrocane]

Pressure on the way down again and two wind maxima, which might indicate the endless eyewall replacement cycle. Sounds like Ike all over again.

Very Ike-like, a huge hurricane with a lower than normal pressure for its intensity, unable to complete the EWRC, both category 2 and also very dangerous.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262158
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 22 20110826
214900 3317N 07859W 6965 03094 0025 +062 -002 029060 062 /// /// 03
214930 3316N 07857W 6971 03073 0008 +066 -001 031058 059 048 012 03
215000 3316N 07855W 6962 03088 9999 +072 -001 031058 059 047 010 00
215030 3316N 07855W 6962 03088 9990 +079 -003 031059 060 045 007 03
215100 3316N 07852W 6964 03081 9987 +080 -003 031060 061 045 005 00
215130 3315N 07850W 6963 03078 9983 +079 -002 032060 061 046 004 00
215200 3313N 07849W 6964 03070 9980 +079 -002 030061 061 047 006 00
215230 3312N 07847W 6963 03070 9971 +081 -000 028061 062 047 005 00
215300 3311N 07845W 6966 03060 9967 +081 +001 028062 062 048 006 00
215330 3310N 07844W 6965 03061 9958 +085 +001 023063 064 048 006 00
215400 3308N 07842W 6965 03053 9950 +088 +001 021065 066 050 005 00
215430 3307N 07840W 6967 03051 9946 +091 +002 020065 066 051 005 00
215500 3305N 07839W 6962 03055 9940 +091 +002 020064 064 051 006 00
215530 3304N 07837W 6959 03057 9945 +085 +003 019063 063 053 006 00
215600 3303N 07835W 6971 03035 9978 +056 +003 018063 065 054 011 00
215630 3301N 07834W 6966 03037 9979 +048 +001 023065 066 054 017 00
215700 3300N 07832W 6967 03033 9961 +063 +000 042067 071 057 015 00
215730 3259N 07831W 6964 03032 9951 +065 +001 044072 074 059 015 00
215800 3258N 07829W 6965 03032 9946 +067 +004 044065 068 059 016 00
215830 3256N 07828W 6968 03025 9932 +077 +007 046056 057 059 009 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262146
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 11 20110826
213630 3150N 07716W 7530 02044 9492 +190 +180 073019 021 026 004 00
213700 3152N 07716W 7526 02056 9500 +188 +185 079032 035 036 007 00
213730 3154N 07716W 7525 02067 9509 +190 +187 086039 040 047 011 00
213800 3156N 07716W 7525 02077 9520 +188 +188 086052 057 054 014 00
213830 3158N 07716W 7529 02091 9540 +186 +187 085059 061 052 012 00
213900 3200N 07716W 7532 02101 9562 +179 +182 085057 058 053 005 00
213930 3202N 07716W 7529 02117 9576 +178 +180 086060 061 052 006 00
214000 3204N 07716W 7529 02129 9589 +178 +179 090060 061 055 003 00
214030 3206N 07715W 7529 02142 9602 +179 +176 091060 061 057 003 00
214100 3208N 07715W 7531 02150 9614 +176 +181 092058 060 059 010 00
214130 3210N 07715W 7531 02161 9629 +172 //// 095060 062 061 010 01
214200 3212N 07715W 7529 02173 9639 +174 +175 095061 062 060 003 00
214230 3214N 07715W 7532 02179 9650 +173 +173 094060 061 061 007 00
214300 3216N 07715W 7531 02188 9661 +172 +170 094060 061 061 012 00
214330 3218N 07715W 7530 02200 9673 +169 +173 092063 067 063 018 00
214400 3220N 07715W 7532 02207 9683 +171 +167 092070 075 064 019 00
214430 3222N 07715W 7532 02215 9696 +167 +159 097073 076 059 014 00
214500 3224N 07715W 7532 02223 9709 +165 +148 098071 073 057 005 00
214530 3226N 07715W 7531 02233 9721 +160 +159 100070 072 058 002 00
214600 3228N 07715W 7535 02238 9728 +163 +158 099068 068 058 002 00

[tolakram]

NOAA (I will not be doing graphics for this)


AF (will be doing center runs)

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262156
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 12 20110826
214630 3230N 07715W 7532 02248 9733 +166 +152 097063 063 057 001 00
214700 3232N 07715W 7532 02256 9743 +165 +153 099063 063 056 000 00
214730 3234N 07715W 7531 02263 9754 +161 +157 102064 065 056 000 00
214800 3236N 07715W 7533 02268 9762 +160 +158 103064 064 056 002 00
214830 3238N 07715W 7532 02278 9775 +154 +155 102064 066 056 002 00
214900 3240N 07715W 7532 02282 9779 +157 +153 100059 060 053 002 00
214930 3242N 07715W 7535 02286 9788 +154 +151 103059 059 054 002 00
215000 3244N 07715W 7534 02292 9793 +155 +153 102058 058 054 003 00
215030 3246N 07715W 7534 02298 9798 +156 +153 103056 058 054 003 00
215100 3248N 07715W 7536 02299 9802 +156 +151 104056 057 054 003 00
215130 3250N 07715W 7534 02306 9809 +154 +152 106057 058 055 003 00
215200 3252N 07715W 7535 02309 9814 +154 +154 109060 065 054 003 00
215230 3255N 07715W 7533 02316 9822 +150 //// 113067 068 053 004 01
215300 3257N 07715W 7535 02320 9829 +150 //// 114070 072 052 005 01
215330 3259N 07715W 7536 02322 9835 +148 //// 115073 074 052 005 01
215400 3301N 07715W 7537 02328 9843 +145 //// 111074 077 049 005 01
215430 3303N 07715W 7536 02334 9852 +143 //// 106069 071 048 005 01
215500 3305N 07715W 7536 02338 9860 +141 //// 106066 067 048 004 01
215530 3308N 07715W 7537 02343 9866 +141 //// 107067 068 047 001 01
215600 3310N 07715W 7538 02347 9873 +141 +142 106067 068 047 002 00

[jabber]

Yes do not let your guard down.. I went through Wilma in Palm Beach (East coast) Most of S. Florida's attitude was nothing can hurt us coming from the west. I tried in vain to tell them that a storm that large takes a long time to wind down. In fact my neighbor was making fun of me when I was putting up my shutters. A day later he was yelling at me that my roof tiles went through his windows. My wife had to separate me from installing additional wisdom. I am now in Raleigh, NC and have all my preparations ready. Nature is unpredictable, but at least you can be prepared.

[mpic]

I'll tell ya, Ike made me very respectful of cat 2 hurricanes! Be very careful!

[tolakram]

I will need to leave in one hour. Doing both obs and important graphics for AF, maybe NOAA unless GE keeps giving me grief.

[northtxboy]

I have to say and this is just a feeling not a forecast. But I think CAT 3 before landfall is not out of the question. She is about to be in a area that is prime for her.

[M_0331]

FWIW,
The national electric grid has been under extreme stress with the death ridge & generally from very high temps. Since the midwest event several years ago that also took out the lights into Canada. IMHO I believe that power companies within 1000 miles of the northeast will conference with other power companies across this area about taking down the nuclear plants in a controlled matter vs having the plants scram all at once. The hydro plants are probably putting a lot of water thru the flood gates due to expecting a lot of rain. I dearly hope that a localized power outage is all we get & not a more broad power outage.
Written by an electrical/mechanical engineer. The thoughts of one & only one.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262208
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 23 20110826
215900 3255N 07826W 6965 03022 9922 +081 +009 045052 053 059 011 00
215930 3254N 07825W 6967 03015 9924 +076 +012 043052 053 060 016 00
220000 3253N 07823W 6963 03018 9924 +073 +013 043054 061 059 014 00
220030 3252N 07822W 6971 03006 9918 +075 +014 051066 069 061 016 00
220100 3250N 07821W 6967 03004 9909 +078 +016 057058 059 062 017 00
220130 3249N 07819W 6962 03009 9903 +080 +018 059059 063 062 017 00
220200 3248N 07818W 6966 03000 9895 +084 +021 061058 063 061 013 00
220230 3247N 07817W 6962 02997 9886 +086 +023 063059 060 061 018 00
220300 3246N 07815W 6961 02997 9889 +081 +025 062057 059 062 016 00
220330 3245N 07814W 6968 02985 9875 +088 +027 068058 059 060 013 00
220400 3244N 07813W 6960 02991 9865 +092 +027 064055 055 059 010 00
220430 3243N 07811W 6966 02983 9865 +091 +028 062053 054 056 009 00
220500 3242N 07810W 6966 02980 9850 +102 +029 058051 054 057 007 00
220530 3240N 07808W 6963 02981 9847 +101 +030 057048 050 057 006 00
220600 3239N 07807W 6968 02971 9833 +109 +032 054047 049 056 005 00
220630 3238N 07806W 6964 02971 9838 +101 +034 052049 050 053 006 00
220700 3237N 07804W 6957 02976 9835 +100 +036 045046 047 052 008 00
220730 3236N 07803W 6961 02969 9822 +109 +037 041047 048 047 005 00
220800 3234N 07801W 6969 02951 9819 +105 +040 039048 049 048 006 00
220830 3233N 07800W 6965 02956 9810 +109 +042 041050 051 047 002 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262206
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 13 20110826
215630 3312N 07715W 7534 02355 9877 +144 +130 104066 067 045 001 00
215700 3314N 07715W 7539 02356 9879 +148 +128 105066 067 044 003 00
215730 3316N 07715W 7538 02360 9889 +141 +139 107068 069 046 004 00
215800 3318N 07715W 7539 02363 9894 +140 +133 108065 067 047 003 00
215830 3320N 07715W 7536 02371 9895 +144 +132 108064 064 047 002 00
215900 3322N 07715W 7537 02373 9902 +141 +138 108063 063 048 003 00
215930 3324N 07715W 7537 02378 9906 +140 //// 108065 066 046 005 01
220000 3327N 07715W 7536 02383 9912 +138 //// 107057 058 045 005 01
220030 3329N 07715W 7536 02390 9918 +138 //// 104056 058 047 012 01
220100 3331N 07715W 7538 02390 9926 +134 +137 103054 055 048 008 00
220130 3333N 07715W 7518 02412 9919 +138 //// 105056 058 052 027 01
220200 3334N 07714W 7528 02402 9920 +138 //// 112061 065 058 015 01
220230 3336N 07713W 7500 02424 9912 +140 //// 113067 069 060 016 01
220300 3338N 07711W 7524 02405 9917 +144 +145 117067 070 057 012 00
220330 3339N 07710W 7524 02409 9927 +135 //// 113074 077 057 008 01
220400 3341N 07709W 7528 02407 9932 +138 +139 111066 070 056 009 00
220430 3342N 07708W 7516 02424 9933 +136 //// 105069 075 053 013 01
220500 3344N 07707W 7530 02411 9934 +137 //// 105062 067 054 008 01
220530 3346N 07706W 7522 02418 9933 +139 //// 103068 070 059 010 01
220600 3347N 07705W 7543 02402 9937 +141 //// 102071 073 059 018 01

[jabber]

I have to say and this is just a feeling not a forecast. But I think CAT 3 before landfall is not out of the question. She is about to be in a area that is prime for her.

I would be very surprised. She lost her inner core. Doubt she has time to build it back. Surprised, but not shocked.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.