ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[capepoint]

I think I might see more than one area of rotation in the radar imagery.

Me too. Just wondering if she is getting ready to reorganize. Might be getting ready to get serious on us.

[tolakram]

Key West 10AM conditions:

Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the NE
Pressure: 29.81 in / 1010 hPa (Falling)

[jinftl]

No doubt that is true...but i am just a weather enthusiast...been one since i was a kid. I love having a forum to share thoughts and engage in dialogue with enthusiasts from all over...i will leave the politics aside and just focus on intent of this forum open to us all.

Has anyone let the NHC know that Fay is in bad shape and prob won't become a 'cane?

As of 8am they sang a different tune..


REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

You really need to learn a little more about the politics of tropical forecasting.

[NDG]

By looking at the last recon report, Fay's center might be near 23.3N & 81.3W

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I would say a probably track shift East at this advisory, and watch for the NHC windfield to shift east also, bringing more of the East Coast of FL into the higher probability wind fields.

[Sanibel]

I don't think we'll see strong intensification because the ULL has held right beside Fay to the west and is partly responsible for the convection displacement. Might ride this one out based on that and the rightward track tendency.

[Dean4Storms]

Good morning all.

Fay does look the best she has looked so far but still not what you would expect to see if RI was about to occur. Still steady strengthening to a possible 90-100mph hurricane is not out of the question.

Now what is the GFS doing? With the turn last night beginning around 10pm cst I went to bed thinking the panhandle was in the clear, wake up this morning and first look at Fay on satellite confirmed my ahhh feeling then I run the model GFS and spew my coffee all over my office, Damn.

[gatorcane]

Members can look at this image to see why Fay is moving NNW now...see that curve dark area on the top of the image? That is a trough digging down eroding any kind of ridging in the GOM and across FL....Fay takes the path of least resistance through the weakness.

Note its a bit unusual to see this kind of trough in August but it does happen from time to time.

[NDG]

Key West 10AM conditions:

Wind: 20 mph / 32 km/h / 8.7 m/s from the NE
Pressure: 29.81 in / 1010 hPa (Falling)

Looks like they will start feeling the worst squalls to start coming in about an hour or so

[tolakram]

Is this accurate? If so Fay should be shear free for a little while?

I can still see the ULL in this loop though.

[Sanibel]

The landscapers are outside doing lawns! That's what I call moxy!

[NDG]

With the trough start pulling northward today and Fay moving away from the ULL, UL conditions should start improving later today through tomorrow before landfall.

[cpdaman]

By looking at the last recon report, Fay's center might be near 23.3N & 81.3W

i think you may be correct, you can see this spinning between marathon and keywest just north of cuba, also interesting to note the large rotation extends ene another 60 miles it appears. and all the rain is to the North and east of the little vortex between marathon and kyw

although i would like for them to sample the pressures near 24 / 80.8 as well

we may see the center build back toward the east as it organizes a bit better, should the shear let up IMO

[NEXRAD]

Shear doesn't look like it will be a huge problem for Fay over the next 24 hours or so, however the upper level divergence won't be all that impressive, so rapid intensification appears quite out of the question. Nevertheless, some intensification still looks plausible, and on IR there are new storm cells with colder tops firing west of the storm center. I still expect Fay will intensifty to a Category 1 hurricane prior to landfall, as the GFDL and HWRF generally indicate (okay, the HWRF keeps Fay a little weaker, but close enough to Cat 1 intensity to go the cautious route). Recent IR imagery also shows the cloud shield expanding northwest. As Fay continues to move away from that upper low, the storm will realize improved conditions for convective formation and sustainment across the western quadrants. Of course, the east half will remain favored for the deepest activity.

- Jay

[HURAKAN]

135800 2327N 08118W 8423 01520 0033 +165 +165 191009 010 008 003 00
135830 2326N 08117W 8432 01513 0033 +168 +168 183013 014 008 004 00
135900 2326N 08115W 8429 01515 0033 +168 +168 178016 017 005 004 00

extrapolated 1003 mb. Fay is not intensifying at the moment.

[BOPPA]

Sanibel - Just left the island about an hour ago and we noticed the same thing --- back in FM now trying to decide --
shutters? no shutters? everything else is pretty much ready.

Just now being able to check computer after a couple of
days - any advise?

[Grease Monkey]

The landscapers are outside doing lawns! That's what I call moxy!

Hey they still need to pay their bills too, tropical system or not.

[cheezyWXguy]

MY GOD!!! What happened to it? Last night it had a tight central core and it looked like it may be approaching hurricane by this time. But its not and it has an elongated circulation and not much deep convection on the center. It almost to me doesnt even look fully tropical, with a very lopsided system to the east. How is it still on land anyway? When it appeared to be moving nnw last night it looked like it was almost to the northern coast of cuba. ugh...too many questions I know, but im just so confused!

[GreenSky]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

[chris_fit]

Here is a great vis sat loop....

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis