CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[canegrl04]

For their sake,I hope Dean does pass them by to the North.We are in better position to recover from such a hurricane hit than they are

Much of northern Mex is fairly rural.

I was talking about Jamaica

[Sanibel]

Keep watching. You have to be careful with assumptions. Hurricanes can do radical stair-steps like Dean and then smooth track straight WNW right after.

[wxmann_91]

Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan

...went on to make final landfall in TX?

Storms I think of are Gilbert, Emily, Janet, and Beulah, all of which made final landfall in nrn MX.

Allen very nearly made landfall on the Yucatan....it very nearly meets all 3 of your thresholds. The GFDL is forecasting Dean to meet all three of your thresholds and go on to make final landfall in Texas.

How much has Dean wobbled last night? Was the GFDL straight NW motion accurate? I'm not sure about that. Anyhow, if it isn't, then the GFDL is too far north. In addition, the trend is south. Next run will likely show a Mex hit.

Allen did not make landfall on the Yucatan... it barely made it to TX. IF Dean does not hit the Yucatan, I will be a lot less confident of a MX landfall.

[canegrl04]

EWRC may be occurring but this is looking as good as ever.

Holy Cow What a magnificent looking hurricane. And unfortunately a deadly one

[Raebie]

I'd say it is holding its intensity right now as it goes through the ERC. Double eyewall reported in the vortex and the old southern wall is gone.

Latest recon showed double eyewall to the north.

[Sabanic]

There is no way a more NW trend for the storm is better for Texas.

I remain very skeptical of a Mexican landfall other than the tip of the Yucatan, possibly.

I'm not even an amateur meteoroligist, although I can read some, but not most, weather maps, so give my opinion no weight. But I'm not blind, and I can see that the storm is tracking north of even this morning's projected track.

If Dean was to maintain a NW track throughout, which is doubtful (I think ) landfall would then be Central to SE LA which WOULD be very good for Texas.

[wxmann_91]

For their sake,I hope Dean does pass them by to the North.We are in better position to recover from such a hurricane hit than they are

Much of northern Mex is fairly rural.

I was talking about Jamaica

Sorry about that. You are right then.

[artist]

The area between The Western Tip of Cuba and the Eastern tip of Cuba shows winds from South to North....Could this area tend to pull Dean more Northward when he reaches it?


If it could then wouldn't it be able to do it where it is now as well which would take it across Puerto Rico and out to sea. Just my thoughts. I am not a pro.

[fasterdisaster]

EWRC may be occurring but this is looking as good as ever.

That is actually the exact pattern of clouds one imagines when imagining an ERC. Expect strengthening after some very slight weakening tonight.

[marcane_1973]

I'd say it is holding its intensity right now as it goes through the ERC. Double eyewall reported in the vortex and the old southern wall is gone.

I just hope if Dean is going through a ERC it does not end up being a bad dealio for Jamaica. Dean Could go into another RI phase right before making landfall in Jamaica which would be the worst case scenerio for them. All storms are different in the length of a ERC so I wonder how long it will take Mr Mean Dean to finish his????

[x-y-no]

ERC is definitely under way:

805
URNT12 KNHC 181636
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/16:14:30Z
B. 15 deg 46 min N
069 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2488 m
D. 119 kt
E. 018 deg 8 nm
F. 113 deg 128 kt
G. 018 deg 008 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3050 m
J. 20 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C11
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 21
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 16:12:00 Z
NORTH EYEWALL HAS DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE

[wx247]

We should have the new GDFL in about 45 minutes, right?

[CrazyC83]

932
URNT15 KNHC 181641
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 37 20070818
163100 1457N 06902W 6969 03079 9990 +074 +074 262045 047 054 053 03
163130 1456N 06901W 6951 03104 9990 +069 +999 257050 055 999 999 05
163200 1456N 06859W 6963 03087 9990 +062 +999 239051 056 056 038 05
163230 1456N 06857W 6965 03086 9990 +062 +999 233047 050 054 025 05
163300 1456N 06855W 6963 03090 9990 +062 +999 233047 048 056 022 01
163330 1456N 06853W 6962 03090 9998 +070 +070 227050 050 054 051 03
163400 1456N 06851W 6967 03086 9993 +079 +079 224050 052 055 009 03
163430 1457N 06849W 6967 03086 0011 +063 +063 221046 048 052 010 00
163500 1457N 06847W 6968 03086 9994 +079 +079 221050 051 051 007 03
163530 1457N 06845W 6963 03095 9987 +084 +084 218053 054 050 006 00
163600 1457N 06843W 6972 03085 9989 +085 +085 214053 054 047 006 00
163630 1458N 06841W 6969 03090 9990 +086 +086 211054 054 046 005 00
163700 1458N 06838W 6967 03092 9988 +086 +086 211054 055 046 005 00
163730 1458N 06836W 6966 03095 9994 +085 +085 211055 056 046 005 00
163800 1458N 06834W 6967 03096 9995 +083 +083 211058 058 045 005 00
163830 1459N 06832W 6968 03097 9991 +088 +078 208058 058 044 005 00
163900 1459N 06830W 6967 03099 9989 +090 +077 206059 059 043 006 00
163930 1500N 06828W 6967 03101 9992 +091 +072 206060 061 044 005 00
164000 1500N 06826W 6966 03104 9999 +088 +074 206059 060 043 005 00
164030 1501N 06824W 6966 03106 0011 +079 +079 205060 063 045 006 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

918
URNT15 KNHC 181651
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 38 20070818
164100 1502N 06822W 6960 03116 0010 +081 +081 201059 060 999 999 03
164130 1504N 06822W 6967 03101 9997 +087 +087 196057 057 999 999 03
164200 1504N 06824W 6969 03098 0000 +085 +085 196053 056 043 006 03
164230 1504N 06825W 6967 03099 9994 +089 +072 200052 052 044 005 00
164300 1505N 06827W 6967 03097 9992 +088 +079 199055 056 042 006 03
164330 1506N 06829W 6967 03095 9988 +090 +078 198057 058 045 005 00
164400 1507N 06830W 6969 03087 9983 +090 +081 198057 057 046 005 00
164430 1508N 06831W 6964 03091 9984 +085 +085 199057 057 999 999 03
164500 1507N 06832W 6967 03086 9984 +084 +084 201057 057 999 999 03
164530 1506N 06832W 6968 03089 9987 +084 +084 203059 060 999 999 03
164600 1507N 06830W 6965 03093 9981 +091 +079 200061 061 999 999 03
164630 1509N 06829W 6969 03089 9980 +093 +080 196060 061 999 999 03
164700 1510N 06830W 6972 03082 9980 +089 +086 195057 057 048 005 00
164730 1512N 06832W 6963 03086 9979 +085 +085 195059 060 049 006 00
164800 1513N 06833W 6968 03078 9970 +088 +082 196060 060 050 007 00
164830 1515N 06835W 6967 03074 9968 +086 +086 195062 062 051 009 00
164900 1516N 06836W 6967 03070 9981 +074 +074 197063 063 052 041 03
164930 1517N 06837W 6969 03059 9989 +062 +062 197060 064 058 018 00
165000 1519N 06839W 6963 03059 9990 +071 +999 200057 061 059 033 01
165030 1520N 06840W 6979 03045 9990 +065 +999 212064 069 068 025 01
$$

Someone else take over...

[fasterdisaster]

I'd say it is holding its intensity right now as it goes through the ERC. Double eyewall reported in the vortex and the old southern wall is gone.

I just hope if Dean is going through a ERC it does not end up being a bad dealio for Jamaica. Dean Could go into another RI phase right before making landfall in Jamaica which would be the worst case scenerio for them. All storms are different in the length of a ERC so I wonder how long it will take Mr Mean Dean to finish his????

His first ERC was quite short, about 3 hours, but they do vary in length even among the same hurricane. Unfortunately I do expect the worst case scenario you explained.

[weatherguru18]

This is my opinion...I hope I'm not copy right enfringing.

Based on what the flip flopping of the gfdl and the gfs under-estimating everything, I think this cone that I have drawn is appropriate.

It leaves northern Mexico a real possibility as well as the rest of Texas and the western coast of Louisiana.

[artist]

How much has Dean wobbled last night? Was the GFDL straight NW motion accurate? I'm not sure about that. Anyhow, if it isn't, then the GFDL is too far north. In addition, the trend is south. Next run will likely show a Mex hit.

Allen did not make landfall on the Yucatan... it barely made it to TX. IF Dean does not hit the Yucatan, I will be a lot less confident of a MX landfall.

Problem is the models are not handling the ULL over Florida correctly nor do they show Erin where she is. That is what I hear the concerns are , thus the thinking being the models are then null and void.

[fasterdisaster]

Dang, let the bashing of the GFS begin. I'm not sure why people are discounting it immediately. It's important not to let your own bias get in the way, whether you are aware of it or not.

The fact is the resolution of the GFS doesn't allow it to represent the inner core of the tropical cyclone very well. We don't have the computing power to do this. But, it does represent larger scale features important for the steering of the storm well, which is far more important than getting the strength of the storm correct. If it were the opposite, then one wouldn't expect the models (not only the GFS) to do the slightest bit well with the track forecasts despite the gains the models have made with synoptic scale predictions.

Not enough computing power? what is the GFS running on system wise?

Windows 95.
They get the blue screen of death each time Dean Wobbles.

lol well I guess that explains it.

[weatherguru18]

This is my opinion...I hope I'm not copy right enfringing.

Based on what the flip flopping of the gfdl and the gfs under-estimating everything, I think this cone that I have drawn is appropriate.

It leaves northern Mexico a real possibility as well as the rest of Texas and the western coast of Louisiana.

Nevermind...I couldn't get it to post.

[rainman]

they dont draw the cone on the uncertainty in that particular forecast...but on the 10 year average that the storm will be in that cone 2/3rds of the time.