Texas Winter 2010-2011

[kb75007]

What time are you guys predicting the front to get to DFW?

[downsouthman1]

What time are you guys predicting the front to get to DFW?

I'd say tough call right now. Just watch it: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

[wxman57]

Here are some 00Z NAM meteograms. First, Houston. Still appears that the precip will end hours before temps reach near 32 at the surface, and 850mb temps are quite well above freezing, so cold rain:


College Station: 00Z NAM has most precip falling between 6am and 9am with the temperature between 37-42, then a trace of precip between 9am-10am with the temperature between 35-37 deg. That means NAM says cold rain for College Station. If the surface temp drops faster, then it could reach freezing earlier, but the precip may end earlier, too.


Austin: NAM has precip ending by around 7am-8am with the temperature in the upper 30s and the 850mb temp in the 44 deg range. That would mean cold rain, according to the NAM. Again, could reach freezing earlier, but precip could end sooner.


Dallas/Ft. Worth: NAM still indicates about 0.1 to 0.13" precip once the temperature at the surface reaches 32 deg. But it also indicates 850mb temps may be below 32 at the time, so it's forecasting about 1-2" snow for the DFW area:

[wxman57]

What time are you guys predicting the front to get to DFW?

Around 2-3am.

[Metalicwx220]

A heatwave gets rid of all the snowcover lol then northern california gets clobbered lol. I like pantasy land anyways... Is amarillo seeing the 3 inch per hour snowfall rates currently?

[DFW Stormwatcher]

[quote="Metalicwx220"] A heatwave gets rid of all the snowcover lol then northern california gets clobbered lol. I like pantasy land anyways... Is amarillo seeing the 3 inch per hour snowfall rates currently?[/quote

It has to be Metalic. I can barely see the cars in the parking lot now, barely 5 feet from my window, snow drifts in the parking lot approaching a foot.

[downsouthman1]

This is not an official forecast, obviously, as I am not a Pro Met. However, I currently believe that models don't understand the way the Surface Low will interact with GOM moisture as it travels SE. Therefore, I am going to say that I believe that all of the models, HRRR included, are underdoing the central/south/east TX precip. Last week, I spoke about 2 options with the next ULL, as far as it moving the trough of following it. I think the ULL will continue it's generally eastward transition, somewhat contrary to what I originally believed. However, the surface low will not make it all the way to Brownsville; it will track approximately over Abilene/San Angelo.

Jesus why am I typing this!? Obviously not official!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE
CURRENT POSITION NEAR A FORT STOCKTON...ABILENE...WICHITA FALLS
LINE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE THE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE FASTER FRONT. THESE CHANGES WILL
ALSO SPILL OVER INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRIDS WITH COLDER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

VERY IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW CRITERIA IN ALL ZONES
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WE EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SHOWING STRONG/MOIST ASSENT ON THE 290K SURFACE. AM HAVING A BIT
OF CONCERN ABOUT THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SHUTTING
DOWN PRECIP QUICKLY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SUPPORTS SOME QPF ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SO FOR NOW
WE WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE.

[wall_cloud]

I'll stop trolling the board after this so you can talk about the rest of Texas, but I rarely see people from Amarillo talking about current conditions, thought I would speak forth. Wouldn't want to live here Wall Cloud, this is good as a novelty but thats about it.

yeah, I noticed that when I lived there. Nobody talks about San Angelo either. I just go with the flow. More peeps in the metroplex and harris county but the real interesting weather is usually out west.

[Ntxw]

AM HAVING A BIT
OF CONCERN ABOUT THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SHUTTING
DOWN PRECIP QUICKLY.

FW still trying to find ways to take away our snow! Grab your pitchforks!!! Seriously, 0z GFS hasn't really changed, still a couple inches DFW north and west.

[Turtle]

Well, new GFS is showing 1" for me. Just 30 miles south is at .1" snow. This is like the 3rd or 4th GFS that's been showing less snow for me. Everyone seems excited so I don't know what to believe.

[iorange55]

Well, new GFS is showing 1" for me. Just 30 miles south is at .1" snow. This is like the 3rd or 4th GFS that's been showing less snow for me. Everyone seems excited so I don't know what to believe.

Eh I'm not really worried about it. Forecasts haven't really been right much this winter.

[wall_cloud]

I'm expecting less snow and more freezing drizzle/rain. If those upper levels dry out, its gonna be slick.

[katheria]

Well, new GFS is showing 1" for me. Just 30 miles south is at .1" snow. This is like the 3rd or 4th GFS that's been showing less snow for me. Everyone seems excited so I don't know what to believe.

decides to go to bed and wake up in the morning and look out the window..
this has been a crazy couple of days with the forecast.....

[CaptinCrunch]

AM HAVING A BIT
OF CONCERN ABOUT THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SHUTTING
DOWN PRECIP QUICKLY.

FW still trying to find ways to take away our snow! Grab your pitchforks!!! Seriously, 0z GFS hasn't really changed, still a couple inches DFW north and west.

Same NWS that went with .5 -1" of snow across DFW for Friday till we got right up to the time snow started falling, and they played catchup all morning.

[TrekkerCC]

Amazing. Wichita Falls, TX went from 46F at 7PM to 25F now. That's a 20 degree temperature drop in two hours. DFW is going to go quickly down to freezing once the front clears the area.

[iorange55]

Amazing. Wichita Falls, TX went from 46F at 7PM to 25F now. That's a 20 degree temperature drop in two hours. DFW is going to go quickly down to freezing once the front clears the area.

Seems like most of the precip will at least be frozen at some point. Whether it be when it hits the ground, or in the form of sleet or snow.

[wall_cloud]

abilene dropped 24 degrees in 1 hour. 51 to 27.

[downsouthman1]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

Does any1 else see 2 waves passing here? I'm assuming the 1st is the actual cold front. The next is the actual cold air. Any1 concur?

Supported by this: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

[wall_cloud]

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DYX&lat=32.47901917&lon=-99.70001984&label=Abilene,+TX&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0

Does any1 else see 2 waves passing here? I'm assuming the 1st is the actual cold front. The next is the actual cold air. Any1 concur?

Supported by this: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

the front is quite evident. where is the second?