ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

live vis loop, last of the daylight.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Looks like hot towers firing over the center.

[beachbyrd]

Oh my goodness, jabber, you are so right about Wilma. Was in Ft. Lauderdale then, and those cool temps made a week with no power bearable! Especially with an infant! In Chattanooga now, and still interested, but hurricanes are definitely not as personal anymore. Praying for those along the coast, for sure.

[DABHou]

The guy streaming live from Cape Hatteras may make history -- the first Internet stream of a beachfront house being destroyed and everyone in it killed in a hurricane.

Just my opinion of course. House sure looks solid, sitting there on the sand with waves lapping at the sandbags around its wood pilings.

He is a storm chaser. He was just reporting via phone on Fox News.

[jabber]

Yeah that was one "nice" thing about that storm.... cool weather..

Oh my goodness, jabber, you are so right about Wilma. Was in Ft. Lauderdale then, and those cool temps made a week with no power bearable! Especially with an infant! In Chattanooga now, and still interested, but hurricanes are definitely not as personal anymore. Praying for those along the coast, for sure.

[Dave]

[Hogweed]

Remember, the SFMR only looks at the sea surface directly under the plane...so, it is sampleing a very small area of the hurricane. Results depend on how much foam the wind produces on the water.

And also of note the reading was marked as "MAX SFC WIND SUSPECT SLIGHT RAIN CONTAMINATION" in the last Vortex message.

[mf_dolphin]

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/tower1/tower1.html Our friends have a tower with webcam and instrumentation up on Cape Hatteras. It will be interesting to see if the tower makes it through the storm

[Dave]

268
URNT15 KNHC 262338
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 32 20110826
232900 3245N 07521W 6961 03045 9922 +095 +064 160083 083 051 003 00
232930 3248N 07521W 6963 03046 9921 +095 +064 161082 083 053 002 00
233000 3250N 07520W 6966 03043 9923 +095 +062 161083 083 052 003 00
233030 3253N 07520W 6964 03049 9925 +097 +061 160082 083 052 002 03
233100 3255N 07520W 6966 03047 9929 +095 +061 157083 084 053 000 00
233130 3257N 07520W 6963 03051 9930 +095 +062 157083 083 053 001 00
233200 3300N 07520W 6966 03050 9937 +090 +063 157082 084 054 009 00
233230 3302N 07520W 6969 03048 9937 +092 +063 157084 084 058 010 00
233300 3305N 07519W 6962 03058 9951 +082 +061 157084 084 055 007 00
233330 3307N 07519W 6972 03049 9960 +079 +059 154086 088 053 010 00
233400 3309N 07519W 6963 03062 9962 +077 +055 154090 091 052 010 00
233430 3312N 07519W 6967 03058 9961 +082 +052 153089 090 054 006 00
233500 3314N 07519W 6964 03063 9955 +089 +048 151085 087 053 006 00
233530 3316N 07519W 6963 03068 9956 +090 +045 150084 085 052 002 00
233600 3319N 07519W 6966 03070 9957 +092 +044 150082 083 052 002 00
233630 3321N 07518W 6963 03074 9955 +095 +044 149081 082 051 002 00
233700 3323N 07518W 6960 03073 9966 +088 +045 147082 083 052 004 00
233730 3326N 07518W 6964 03071 9960 +093 +047 148081 083 051 003 00
233800 3328N 07518W 6967 03075 9961 +095 +048 150080 080 049 001 00
233830 3330N 07518W 6966 03075 9962 +095 +048 149081 083 049 003 00
$$
;

[Recurve]

The guy streaming live from Cape Hatteras may make history -- the first Internet stream of a beachfront house being destroyed and everyone in it killed in a hurricane.

Just my opinion of course. House sure looks solid, sitting there on the sand with waves lapping at the sandbags around its wood pilings.

He is a storm chaser. He was just reporting via phone on Fox News.

OK, then first storm chaser killed live on streaming video. Unfortunately.

[CrazyC83]

002 00000
URNT15 KWBC 262326
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 21 20110826
231630 3229N 07803W 7511 02304 9777 +153 //// 024057 058 052 007 01
231700 3228N 07801W 7511 02299 9771 +153 +158 023056 057 050 003 00
231730 3227N 07759W 7511 02293 9764 +154 +157 021057 058 049 001 00
231800 3226N 07757W 7510 02288 9756 +154 +157 019059 060 050 000 00
231830 3225N 07755W 7510 02279 9746 +156 +154 019060 061 050 002 00
231900 3224N 07753W 7510 02269 9736 +158 +148 019064 065 052 001 00
231930 3223N 07750W 7508 02263 9720 +166 +148 022068 069 052 002 00
232000 3222N 07748W 7512 02250 9703 +174 +149 021070 071 054 002 00
232030 3221N 07746W 7511 02241 9694 +171 +159 020070 070 054 004 00
232100 3219N 07744W 7513 02230 9682 +173 +165 018067 067 053 007 00
232130 3218N 07742W 7511 02223 9671 +174 +167 016066 066 053 008 00
232200 3217N 07740W 7508 02220 9665 +171 +170 018064 066 051 006 00
232230 3216N 07738W 7509 02211 9660 +167 +171 019060 062 047 003 00
232300 3215N 07736W 7511 02201 9648 +170 +175 019054 057 044 005 00
232330 3214N 07733W 7512 02192 9642 +168 //// 021049 051 043 004 01
232400 3213N 07731W 7512 02185 9632 +172 +172 021050 050 044 002 00
232430 3212N 07729W 7514 02172 9613 +182 +173 021049 049 044 002 00
232500 3211N 07727W 7510 02168 9603 +183 +171 022046 047 044 001 00
232530 3211N 07725W 7509 02161 9592 +184 +172 024049 050 045 001 00
232600 3210N 07723W 7510 02146 9574 +187 +176 023049 050 046 002 00

[Recurve]

MF_Dolphin, is that Mark's crew that put up the webcam?

[theweatherwatch]

MF_Dolphin, is that Mark's crew that put up the webcam?

Yes it is...

[DABHou]

The guy streaming live from Cape Hatteras may make history -- the first Internet stream of a beachfront house being destroyed and everyone in it killed in a hurricane.

Just my opinion of course. House sure looks solid, sitting there on the sand with waves lapping at the sandbags around its wood pilings.

He is a storm chaser. He was just reporting via phone on Fox News.

OK, then first storm chaser killed live on streaming video. Unfortunately.

Supposedly he is leaving at sunset.

Screens gone black now...

[Dave]

NOAA 2

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H...AND A
GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT THE JOHNNY MERCER PIER
IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262336
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 22 20110826
232630 3209N 07720W 7511 02130 9549 +201 +170 023053 055 046 000 00
232700 3209N 07718W 7512 02112 9538 +192 +182 024046 049 046 006 00
232730 3208N 07716W 7515 02096 9524 +189 +189 026032 036 041 010 00
232800 3207N 07714W 7514 02087 9514 +191 +187 019028 029 032 005 00
232830 3206N 07712W 7512 02079 9501 +195 +185 016022 024 031 005 00
232900 3206N 07709W 7511 02076 9496 +195 +178 029013 018 022 001 00
232930 3205N 07707W 7516 02067 9492 +195 +175 078007 009 016 002 00
233000 3204N 07706W 7514 02065 9489 +195 +175 165006 007 016 000 00
233030 3202N 07704W 7515 02064 9489 +195 +176 211015 019 011 000 00
233100 3201N 07702W 7511 02071 9494 +192 +172 211023 026 022 001 00
233130 3200N 07700W 7514 02073 9505 +185 +177 210031 034 026 000 00
233200 3159N 07658W 7512 02081 9510 +186 +180 212040 041 030 001 00
233230 3158N 07656W 7513 02089 9519 +185 +180 212042 044 035 002 00
233300 3157N 07653W 7512 02096 9526 +186 +178 214048 050 044 003 00
233330 3156N 07651W 7513 02106 9538 +183 +185 214059 063 052 007 00
233400 3155N 07649W 7509 02125 9556 +178 //// 210068 070 055 009 01
233430 3154N 07647W 7514 02133 9573 +178 +175 209068 069 053 005 00
233500 3153N 07645W 7515 02144 9585 +179 +175 208067 068 052 005 00
233530 3152N 07643W 7514 02154 9596 +177 +179 209068 069 053 009 00
233600 3151N 07641W 7514 02163 9609 +173 //// 208070 071 054 009 01

Pressure 949mb.

[mf_dolphin]

One of my observations of the SFMR readings is that there seems to be some concern about their consistency. I've seen the NHC disregard both high and low un-contaminated readings in past storms. It's relatively newer technology and I just don't think they're 100% confident. And I think a small correction to an earlier post, the "visual" reading of surface speeds is based in part on the sea foam characterization, not SFMR.

[SunnyThoughts]

I"ve been surfing around looking at opinions from mets concerning Irene. I've come across a couple who seem to think its possible that by landfall, (up in the new england states) Irene could possibly be part warmcore, part barclonic...like a massive nor-easter, with strong tropical storm or hurricane strength. Very interesting to see all the pro's opinions.

[tolakram]

Live WV loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Still appears to be slowly slowly getting stronger. Here's hoping it's slow enough not to make much difference before landfall.

[Recurve]

Radar from Wilmington. A long ways to go before the max winds reach the OBX.



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