Going to watch this run before class.
SW already of last run's position. Initialized well at least.
ATL: IRMA - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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MatthewsRevenge
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Like I expected with 06z GFS, they push Irma NW by the time it heads to SC, this trend is not likely to push east. Good news for us in Central NC. It'll be in Cat 1 strength by the time it gets close to Asheville. GFS and Euro finally getting it together.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
adam0983 wrote:This track is worse for Florida's east coast bringing the center closer to the metro areas compared to yesterday when it would hit key west. What are the chances that hurricane Irma does a hurricane Matthew and misses us completely. The models are showing this further east with each run. What if this went out to sea and we got a sunny day.
Then let's all meet somewhere and have a drink!!!
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MatthewsRevenge
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
adam0983 wrote:This track is worse for Florida's east coast bringing the center closer to the metro areas compared to yesterday when it would hit key west. What are the chances that hurricane Irma does a hurricane Matthew and misses us completely. The models are showing this further east with each run. What if this went out to sea and we got a sunny day.
I don't think they're gonna push this further east anymore. In fact, it STILL looks like they're pushing slightly west again.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Wow, that ridge lifts out nicely, doesn't it!
Hope it comes to pass that way....
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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GFS is weaker, do you promets think that is realistic?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
@25 miles SW shift on 12z at 72 hrs... Oh boy
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Look at the shortwave, it looks oddly weaker.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
xironman wrote:Shortwave looks a touch weaker.
We should have a better idea about this feature today and tomorrow. Will be going past many observation stations.
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
A huge letdown....wow I cannot believe I just read that. I'm sure millions in Florida would disagree with you.
SouthFloridian92 wrote:adam0983 wrote:This track is worse for Florida's east coast bringing the center closer to the metro areas compared to yesterday when it would hit key west. What are the chances that hurricane Irma does a hurricane Matthew and misses us completely. The models are showing this further east with each run. What if this went out to sea and we got a sunny day.
Sure would be a huge letdown.
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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
not sure it could get closer without landfall, right? Or was the last run still that far off shore? Or am I confusing it with the Euro or NHC track?NDG wrote:This run will be closer to FL than previous 3 runs, IMO.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
p1nheadlarry wrote:xironman wrote:Shortwave looks a touch weaker.
We should have a better idea about this feature today and tomorrow. Will be going past many observation stations.
Still pops the ridge open. Looks like TT's appserver is being stressed, the nginx gateway is timing out occasionally
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
otowntiger wrote:not sure it could get closer without landfall, right? Or was the last run still that far off shore? Or am I confusing it with the Euro or NHC track?NDG wrote:This run will be closer to FL than previous 3 runs, IMO.
Last 3 runs showed no FL landfall.
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