ATL: IKE Discussion

[pablolopez26]

Wow, im looking at Hurricant Hunter mission #22 into Ike, that whole East side of Ike is just NASTY!!


Time:
22:44:00Z
Coordinates:
25.1N 84.75W
Acft. Static Air Press:
781.2 mb (~ 23.07 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
2,085 meters (~ 6,841 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
992.0 mb (~ 29.29 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 165° at 85 knots (From the SSE at ~ 97.7 mph)
Air Temp:
15.6°C (~ 60.1°F)
Dew Pt:
15.6°C (~ 60.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
89 knots (~ 102.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
69 knots (~ 79.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[Janie2006]

The pressure has dropped 6.5 mb since the 7 pm update.

[SeaBrz_FL]

I had dinner with some neighbors tonight, and Ike and Texas were the main topic of conversation. I told them about S2K and they asked that I post that "many Floridians are sad for the situation and are praying for Texas."

I also came home to find a voice mail from my TS Fay flood insurance adjuster alerting me that they have been notified to expedite payoff settlement agreements on all Fay Florida claims by Friday and then head to Texas.

Ominous and scary, but I know that the brave state of Texas will handle this calmly and wisely.

All the best to you Texans and you'll stay in my thoughts this weekend!
SB

[Brent]

What is the average windspeed for a storm with 940 mb pressure?

Cat 4 usually

[pablolopez26]

By the way, if you guys want to see the readings from the Missions, heres the link.

Enjoy:

http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2008/07/live_hurricane_hunter_missions_in_g.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The high oceanic heat content of the gulf is really allowing Ike
to expand in size significantly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

On satellite it looks like a cat1, but pressure is cat4 like. The system looks less organized, but it is strengthing. Truely weird.

[pablolopez26]

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 23:49Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 22
Observation Number: 13

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 24.6N 86.3W
Location: 284 miles (457 km) to the W (271°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)


Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
960mb (28.35 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
Pressure extrapolated between surface and 850 mb level since sonde did not reach surface.
1000mb
This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb
333m (1,093 ft)
25.0°C (77.0°F)
25.0°C (77.0°F)
265° (from the W)
85 knots (98 mph)
850mb
1,078m (3,537 ft)
22.2°C (72.0°F)
22.0°C (71.6°F)
285° (from the WNW)
71 knots (82 mph)


Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 23:24Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
Release Location: 24.57N 86.29W
Release Time: 23:24:08Z

Splash Location: 24.56N 86.22W
Splash Time: 23:27:33Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 260° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 79 knots (91 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 285° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 70 knots (81 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 727mb to 955mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 198 gpm - 48 gpm (650 geo. feet - 157 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 79 knots (91 mph)

[tallywx]

The outflow looks spectacular. This thing has like zero windshear over it right now.

[iiroberts]

What is wrong with these local officials in Texas lowballing all these forecasts???

Methinks they are doing the evacs in stages to avoid the folks on the coast being trapped on the roads...look for wider evacs in the morning...we are reaping the benefits of better forcasts with Ike

they just said on local news that it is too late to evac Galveston. Only west end that doesn't have a sea wall.

[Steve]

>>On satellite it looks like a cat1, but pressure is cat4 like. The system looks less organized, but it is strengthing. Truely weird.

I dunno Matt. When the visibles were still out there you could see it was getting that pefect look to it. Clearly not translating as well to IR though. JMO

Steve

[RL3AO]

If it can take care of its structure problems, the wind speeds will pick up very very quickly. Right now the double maxima and its large size are preventing the winds to pick up.

[Nimbus]

The central pressure has been dropping by a couple MB's an hour since 2PM et. Will probably be a cat 3 by the time I check in again at 5AM ET. Don't expect any track surprises before then but the water vapor loop should look interesting.

[monsoon]

TX GOM area oil production factilties:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4510

"Hurricane Ike's current track predicts landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but has been moving northwards. Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). "

[jinftl]

This gives you an idea of what Cat 1/Cat 2 winds can do to a downtown....given the 100 mile radius of hurricane force winds around ike....even areas not at the exact landfall location are not out of the woods at all. i share these images of fort lauderdale after wilma...again sustained cat 1/low cat 2 winds did this....

Houston should be fine as long as it's not a cat4/5 direct hit to the west. Surge will not be a problem as Houston is well inland and very high. Winds will create power outages but should not cause any significant structural damage unless it's a cat4/5 direct hit.

Skyscrapers in Ft. Lauderdale had their windows blown out from sustained borderline cat 1/2 winds in Wilma. I'd hate to see the result of Houston's dealing with even marginal cat 3 winds.

[Lowpressure]

What is the average windspeed for a storm with 940 mb pressure?

Cat 4 usually

Dvorak T-Number and Corresponding Intensity[2]
T-Number Winds (knots) Minimum Pressure (millibars)
Atlantic
1.0 - 1.5 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009
2.5 35 1005
3.0 45 1000
3.5 55 994
4.0 65 987
4.5 77 979
5.0 90 970
5.5 102 960
6.0 115 948
6.5 127 935
7.0 140 921
7.5 155 906
8.0 170 890

[Jessie]

Why are you all looking at satellite images to surmise motion when we've been getting NOAA jet eye penetrations every 30 minutes?

002930 2443N 08622W 7185 02413 9425
010500 2444N 08626W 7231 02350 9416
013830 2446N 08628W 7187 02398 9405

I guess everyone else knows, but is that NW or WNW?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Why are you all looking at satellite images to surmise motion when we've been getting NOAA jet eye penetrations every 30 minutes?

002930 2443N 08622W 7185 02413 9425
010500 2444N 08626W 7231 02350 9416
013830 2446N 08628W 7187 02398 9405

I guess everyone else knows, but is that NW or WNW?

that's wnw.
940.5 and still only a 96kt FL wind. Ike's still got some organizing to do.

[Dean4Storms]

Why are you all looking at satellite images to surmise motion when we've been getting NOAA jet eye penetrations every 30 minutes?

002930 2443N 08622W 7185 02413 9425
010500 2444N 08626W 7231 02350 9416
013830 2446N 08628W 7187 02398 9405

I guess everyone else knows, but is that NW or WNW?

The last 2 sets would be NW if it continues.

[MHurricanes]

Pressure 940.5..........

During a live interview a few minutes ago on HurricaneCity.com, Jeff Masters said there's a 30 to 50 percent chance that Ike will continue to strengthen all the way to landfall. He said the "Wilma-like" storm is so large that it will probably shield itself from any shear or dry air that might try to weaken it prior to landfall.

- MHurricanes