Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[RL3AO]

Looks like some turning over land.

[boca]

Looks like some turning over land.

It looks like that quickscat is at 11N and 91w and on the second pic over Panama,if I'm reading it correctly.

[RL3AO]

It looks like that quickscat is at 11N and 91w and on the second pic over Panama,if I'm reading it correctly.

Yep. The low over the EPac almost looks closed.

[JonathanBelles]

Is there any geographic phenomena that would make the wind do that?

[boca]

The thing is that its very early in the game and we will probably see these low pressure eddies form then disapate until it gets its act together. I noticed also in the IR2 mode that the clouds are moving ENE in the E Pac along the convergence zone.

[george_r_1961]

Its a pretty broad circulation and I wonder if it even extends to the surface. Nonetheless its something to watch as it looks like conditions may become a little more favorable as shear is expected to drop.

[boca]

Is there any geographic phenomena that would make the wind do that?

Great question we need a pro met.

[NDG]

IR2 loop really seems to suggest a low level turning East of Panama and Nicaragua

I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.

Most likely a mid level circulation, usually happens after heavy convection dies down.

Sat. loop

[vbhoutex]

HELLO EVERYONE!!!

STORM2K still requires the normal S2K disclaimer on any forecasts such as the ones I have seen already in this forum. Please abide by the rules of the site as usual. We should not even need to remind our veteran posters!!!

It reads as follows"

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Please use it!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

IR2 loop really seems to suggest a low level turning East of Panama and Nicaragua

I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.

Most likely a mid level circulation, usually happens after heavy convection dies down.

The Quik-Scat images posted suggested this area just missed being scanned. IR2 is the best I can think of, when it is a bit too dark for visible.


Calm or very light West winds in Panama, with fairly low pressure (1008 mb)


Edit to add because of disclaimer post added while I composed this:
No disclaimer, because I have no idea what happens next.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Will this be 90E or 90L if it gets classified as an Invest since it seems to be hugging both basins?

[NDG]

I saw the low level turning on IR4 and you can really see it better on IR2.

Most likely a mid level circulation, usually happens after heavy convection dies down.

The Quik-Scat images posted suggested this area just missed being scanned. IR2 is the best I can think of, when it is a bit too dark for visible.


Calm or very light West winds in Panama, with fairly low pressure (1008 mb)


Edit to add because of disclaimer post added while I composed this:
No disclaimer, because I have no idea what happens next.

Definitely MLC, I took a closer look at shortwave IR and definitely is in the mid levels, I only see the mid and high level clouds spinning, still with a broad low at the surface.

[JonathanBelles]

Will this be 90E or 90L if it gets classified as an Invest since it seems to be hugging both basins?

90CentralAmerica XD....I dont know.

[Chacor]

Will this be 90E or 90L if it gets classified as an Invest since it seems to be hugging both basins?

That would depend on where they determine the LLC to be, surely.

[Eyewall]

slow development.

[cycloneye]

Start of 00z GFS Run It starts with a 1007 mb low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 24 Hours EPAC low,nothing yet at Caribbean.

00z GFS at 30 Hours Trying to form low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 48 Hours Nothing definitive yet in SW Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

Thats interesting.

[cycloneye]

Start of 00z GFS Run It starts with a 1007 mb low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 24 Hours EPAC low,nothing yet at Caribbean.

00z GFS at 30 Hours Trying to form low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 48 Hours 1006 mb low just north of Costa Rica.

00z GFS at 60 Hours 1007 mb low in the same place.

00z GFS at 72 Hours Stucked over land in CentralAmerica.

00z GFS at 90 Hours Low just north of Honduras.

[Eyewall]

Every GFS run seems to have it going over land and then back out over water.