Texas Winter 2010-2011

[MississippiWx]

Well Channel 11 just mentioned snow chances..networks jumping on.. snow is this way..

We'll see. This run coming out now doesn't have any snow for us on Sunday, but that doesn't mean it won't. Still time for things to change. We'll see what the Euro says.

Now it's time to watch what it shows for the cold next week.

You know what would be amazing? Since the models have been pushing back the timing of the weekend's system, what if they are having trouble initializing it (still moving west in the PAC) that it comes out so late it manages to phase with the incoming northern stream and arctic air, you'd have a perfect storm for OK and N Tx . One can dream.

What is your gut feeling on the models' handling of this system? The new 00z GFS shows quite a strong low pressure developing over the NW Gulf with plenty of moisture. However, the 0 degree Celsius line isn't much farther south than TN during most of the precip. Do you think this means an ice storm for the Gulf South or just a cold rain event? I know the EURO shows more snow than freezing rain and hopefully the EURO is more accurate. Considering the EURO's accuracy this winter, I'd be more inclined to believe it...

[iorange55]

GFS 00z so far is "meh" not heartbreaking like it was yesterday but it's not any colder so far. Still not sure if any of the models have a good handle on this situation. Lots of things still uncertain, even things that are only 3-5 days out now.

It's a waiting game.

[Brandon8181]

The Nam seems to suggest that Sunday night the Low will bring what moisture over the North TX area with freezing temperatures coming in at about the same time resulting in a winter mix for north Texas changing over to snow by Monday morning.

Really anxious to see if all the models can come together on this over the next day or two.

Does anyone agree with these thoughts or have any insight?

I still think this week will only be the start of things to come.....

[iorange55]

And again it shows another strong blast 11-13 days out and possibly some precip breaking out around Texas. So it looks like to me we're going to have a strong front this coming week, how cold and for how long? We don't know yet. Then we'll have a very brief warm up before another front comes.

That is what I'm getting at least. Other then that I have no clue what will happen.

[HockeyTx82]

Brownsville still has the front dropping in on Monday at 7AM! Does that sound right to anyone?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=bro&gc=5

[Ntxw]

And again it shows another strong blast 11-13 days out and possibly some precip breaking out around Texas. So it looks like to me we're going to have a strong front this coming week, how cold and for how long? We don't know yet. Then we'll have a very brief warm up before another front comes.

That is what I'm getting at least. Other then that I have no clue what will happen.

Forecast for next week: Mildy colder.

[iorange55]

And again it shows another strong blast 11-13 days out and possibly some precip breaking out around Texas. So it looks like to me we're going to have a strong front this coming week, how cold and for how long? We don't know yet. Then we'll have a very brief warm up before another front comes.

That is what I'm getting at least. Other then that I have no clue what will happen.

Forecast for next week: Mildy colder.

Lol, sounds about right.

[Brandon8181]

And again it shows another strong blast 11-13 days out and possibly some precip breaking out around Texas. So it looks like to me we're going to have a strong front this coming week, how cold and for how long? We don't know yet. Then we'll have a very brief warm up before another front comes.

That is what I'm getting at least. Other then that I have no clue what will happen.

The warm up doesn't even seem to be that "warm".

I personally - after this coming weeks event don't see North Texas getting out of the 40's before the next big cold blast that will knock us down to 10-30 F with a significant winter weather event. I know, I'm thinking really far out, but I love long term speculation and discussion.

[vbhoutex]

And again it shows another strong blast 11-13 days out and possibly some precip breaking out around Texas. So it looks like to me we're going to have a strong front this coming week, how cold and for how long? We don't know yet. Then we'll have a very brief warm up before another front comes.

That is what I'm getting at least. Other then that I have no clue what will happen.

The warm up doesn't even seem to be that "warm".

I personally - after this coming weeks event don't see North Texas getting out of the 40's before the next big cold blast that will knock us down to 10-30 F with a significant winter weather event. I know, I'm thinking really far out, but I love long term speculation and discussion.

What are you seeing that makes you think this. Can you back it up with some data from models?

[southerngale]

So far, my forecast for next week isn't even nearly as cold as what we've experienced many times this winter. Unless the trend does a U-turn, it looks like this was much ado about nothing. Another false alarm by the long range models, which we bought moreso than usual because of the consistency. JMO and I'd love to be wrong and squeeze some snow out of this, but while I realize it could change (as the forecast often does), my forecast for next week is just run of the mill temps. Not even a freeze in the forecast! And we've had a ton of those so far this winter, many into the mid to upper 20s as well.

(and I'm referring to my neck of the woods, not points further north)

[iorange55]

So far, my forecast for next week isn't even nearly as cold as what we've experienced many times this winter. Unless the trend does a U-turn, it looks like this was much ado about nothing. Another false alarm by the long range models, which we bought moreso than usual because of the consistency. JMO and I'd love to be wrong and squeeze some snow out of this, but while I realize it could change, my forecast for next week is just run of the mill temps. Not even a freeze in the forecast! And we've had a ton of those so far this winter, many into the mid to upper 20s as well.

(and I'm referring to my neck of the woods, not points further north)

The tad bit warming GFS 00z shows a freeze for the Beaumont area in the middle of Next week, maybe upper 20s. Then further out in the 10-15 day range shows possibly colder than that with some moisture. Long ways out for that, though. I think Texas will get pretty cold. Seems like it's been predicting too cold of an airmass for it to be just a normal cold front.

[Ntxw]

Pressures are rising in Alaska/NW Canada compared to yesterday. Guess we'll find out soon how cold it could get.



And HP starting to build/on the move out of Siberia across the Arctic.

[southerngale]

So far, my forecast for next week isn't even nearly as cold as what we've experienced many times this winter. Unless the trend does a U-turn, it looks like this was much ado about nothing. Another false alarm by the long range models, which we bought moreso than usual because of the consistency. JMO and I'd love to be wrong and squeeze some snow out of this, but while I realize it could change, my forecast for next week is just run of the mill temps. Not even a freeze in the forecast! And we've had a ton of those so far this winter, many into the mid to upper 20s as well.

(and I'm referring to my neck of the woods, not points further north)

The tad bit warming GFS 00z shows a freeze for the Beaumont area in the middle of Next week, maybe upper 20s. Then further out in the 10-15 day range shows possibly colder than that with some moisture. Long ways out for that, though. I think Texas will get pretty cold. Seems like it's been predicting too cold of an airmass for it to be just a normal cold front.

Yeah. I guess what I'm saying is that a freeze, even upper 20s is no big deal. That's how it's been all winter. A day or two or more of below freezing... now THAT would be something more rare. And that looked possible a few days ago. I just see the trend going away from a major Arctic plunge of anything unusual, at least down here. While I am sort of longing for spring, I'd love to put that aside for some interesting weather, particularly that pretty white stuff that falls from the sky.

The 10-15 day snowfall special seems to always be 10-15 days away, though.

I hope I'm wrong... just posting my thoughts on what I see.

[vbhoutex]

So far, my forecast for next week isn't even nearly as cold as what we've experienced many times this winter. Unless the trend does a U-turn, it looks like this was much ado about nothing. Another false alarm by the long range models, which we bought moreso than usual because of the consistency. JMO and I'd love to be wrong and squeeze some snow out of this, but while I realize it could change, my forecast for next week is just run of the mill temps. Not even a freeze in the forecast! And we've had a ton of those so far this winter, many into the mid to upper 20s as well.

(and I'm referring to my neck of the woods, not points further north)

I presume you are talking about the NWS forecast for your area. I am still seeing enough from different reputable pro-mets and some of my own analysis that makes me think that what we are seeing on the tube in SE TX is not quite what we are going to get. I have no handle on the precip possibilities except that the Southern Jet is becoming active so there is a possibility that moisture may be available when what I still think will be some very cold temps come to our area in the next 5 -12 days. I expect the initial surge to be followed by a stronger surge. Of course the the source regions have to load first and that hasn't happened yet, at least not to the extent needed for a historic cold outbreak.

[CajunMama]

Frack, as you know lake charles nws is quite conservative and they rarely hype any type of system. They haven't mentioned the cold front hardly at all. They'll be saying more by friday or saturday.

[Brandon8181]

I personally - after this coming weeks event don't see North Texas getting out of the 40's before the next big cold blast that will knock us down to 10-30 F with a significant winter weather event. I know, I'm thinking really far out, but I love long term speculation and discussion.[/quote]
What are you seeing that makes you think this. Can you back it up with some data from models?[/quote]

The GFS has been becoming more and more consistant as far as bringing down several cold surges of cold energy into the southern plains. The most recent 00Z run shows this with several burst of cold air coming down over the next couple of weeks to show kind of what I was thinking.

I do think I was a little to anxious suggesting temperatures wouldn't get out of the 40's, but I do not think it will get as warm as GFS suggest. I think any "warm up" we have will be more short lived, rather than long, and we will quickly be knocked back down with lows in the teens to twenties, and high's in the 30's over the next few weeks with some spikes of milder temperatures.

Of course, again this is all far out, but I really enjoy giving things a good guess and hearing everyones thoughts that support or correct mine

[iorange55]

Who is looking at the Euro right now?

[Ntxw]

Who is looking at the Euro right now?

It has snow for north Texas/OK underneath and behind the low pressure. The difference here is a cutoff low swings across the state which is drastically different than an open wave, being a bit further north with moisture as well.

[iorange55]

Who is looking at the Euro right now?

It has snow for north Texas/OK. The difference here is a cutoff low swings across the state which is drastically different than an open wave, being a bit further north with moisture as well.

Yeah, I had a crisis and couldn't find a smiley which was sly enough. It also looks like the cold front might be coming in a bit stronger. I'm liking the Euro more than the GFS lately.

[Ntxw]

The storm is actually outrunning the cold in the Euro but sustains itself enough to provide it's cold air. Thinking there could be a bit more snow with frontal passage after. Certainly will in the panhandle and Oklahoma.