Texas Fall-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

Not in fantasy land, very beneficial rains are on the way for those portions of Texas who are in a severe drought:

That is a beautiful map, I hope it pans out.

I continue to see encouraging signs via the morning Update GFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs suggesting a significant pattern change to a colder regime has potential as we transition to the Winter Weather thread.

And this is too. Looks prime for winter fun.

[Golf7070]

NTXW, how did the gefs.and euro ensembles look in regards to getting colder and pattern reversal? That McFarland signature would be nice to see. I heard the HP overseas is up to 1083mb. Tap some of that would make alot happy

[Ntxw]

NTXW, how did the gefs.and euro ensembles look in regards to getting colder and pattern reversal? That McFarland signature would be nice to see. I heard the HP overseas is up to 1083mb. Tap some of that would make alot happy

Nothing I have seen really changes the thinking. The US will get chillier and stormier. Wintry weather is never a sure fire forecast for our neck of the woods it's always speculation until 24-48 hours out and some validity within 100 hours. The pattern through the end of the month and first week or so is not vodka cold, it is gradual backbuilding of cold and from storms. The long range is where the fantasy cold is and I suspect it's guesswork and maybe even the models trying to dive the EPO too soon. I would be suspect to think perhaps mid December is a more reasonable time frame for shallower, cross polar flow type fronts. One thing is fairly common theme, it could be one of the colder Decembers than we are accustomed to the past several years. The weak Nina/cold neutral analogs have been consistently adamant about a chilly December. It is about as good a signal as calling last December warm in a strong El Nino which everyone pretty much nailed (it was after that when most forecasts failed Jan/Feb).

[starsfan65]

NTXW, how did the gefs.and euro ensembles look in regards to getting colder and pattern reversal? That McFarland signature would be nice to see. I heard the HP overseas is up to 1083mb. Tap some of that would make alot happy

Nothing I have seen really changes the thinking. The US will get chillier and stormier. Wintry weather is never a sure fire forecast for our neck of the woods it's always speculation until 24-48 hours out and some validity within 100 hours. The pattern through the end of the month and first week or so is not vodka cold, it is gradual backbuilding of cold and from storms. The long range is where the fantasy cold is and I suspect it's guesswork and maybe even the models trying to dive the EPO too soon. I would be suspect to think perhaps mid December is a more reasonable time frame for shallower, cross polar flow type fronts. One thing is fairly common theme, it could be one of the colder Decembers than we are accustomed to the past several years. The weak Nina/cold neutral analogs have been consistently adamant about a chilly December. It is about as good a signal as calling last December warm in a strong El Nino which everyone pretty much nailed (it was after that when most forecasts failed Jan/Feb).

It will be a slow process but it will start getting very cold soon.

[starsfan65]

NTXW, how did the gefs.and euro ensembles look in regards to getting colder and pattern reversal? That McFarland signature would be nice to see. I heard the HP overseas is up to 1083mb. Tap some of that would make alot happy

Nothing I have seen really changes the thinking. The US will get chillier and stormier. Wintry weather is never a sure fire forecast for our neck of the woods it's always speculation until 24-48 hours out and some validity within 100 hours. The pattern through the end of the month and first week or so is not vodka cold, it is gradual backbuilding of cold and from storms. The long range is where the fantasy cold is and I suspect it's guesswork and maybe even the models trying to dive the EPO too soon. I would be suspect to think perhaps mid December is a more reasonable time frame for shallower, cross polar flow type fronts. One thing is fairly common theme, it could be one of the colder Decembers than we are accustomed to the past several years. The weak Nina/cold neutral analogs have been consistently adamant about a chilly December. It is about as good a signal as calling last December warm in a strong El Nino which everyone pretty much nailed (it was after that when most forecasts failed Jan/Feb).

It will be a slow process but it will start getting very cold soon.

We are in for a wild December.

[dhweather]

No cat 5 in the Gulf on the 12Z GFS run. I'm heartbroken.


It is nice to see some progression with the pattern, systems coming through every 3-5 days, instead of every 20 or 30 days. Everyone needs rain. Everyone.

[Brent]

No cat 5 in the Gulf on the 12Z GFS run. I'm heartbroken.


It is nice to see some progression with the pattern, systems coming through every 3-5 days, instead of every 20 or 30 days. Everyone needs rain. Everyone.

Some places in Alabama haven't had measurable rain in 2 months... that would be in 2nd place on even DFW's driest streak and it's a lot more common here!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Might be slightly off topic for this thread but man, how low is the arctic sea ice going to be at the end of this winter if we are expecting a lot of blocking? Already at all time lows now. Going to be interesting to see what effects it has.

[Brent]

You can see the beginning of the colder air starting at the end of the 10 day... a gradual stepdown past this weekend.

[JDawg512]

Our NBC affiliate KXAN did winter predictor segment tonight and as many of us have been thinking, they also feel we may see a cooler and possibly stormier winter as opposed to what the CPC is predicting.

[Ntxw]

That storm +/-next Weds sure is looking more and more ominous. We've tracked this thing more or less from 300hrs to now under 200. Both Euro and GFS have very low heights traversing unusually far south for this time of year. Cold air is still a big question mark but boy it's tingling my spidey senses. If it can swing through negative tilt, it's going to be a lot wetter system than they are currently showing. The only thing that prevents it from being a better slot for winter weather threat is a big high (1030+) coming down from W-Canada as of the runs so far to funnel cold air advection.

May be to soon for Lucy, but she's definitely deflating those footballs before the kick.

[starsfan65]

That storm +/-next Weds sure is looking more and more ominous. We've tracked this thing more or less from 300hrs to now under 200. Both Euro and GFS have very low heights traversing unusually far south for this time of year. Cold air is still a big question mark but boy it's tingling my spidey senses. If it can swing through negative tilt, it's going to be a lot wetter system than they are currently showing. The only thing that prevents it from being a better slot for winter weather threat is a big high (1030+) coming down from W-Canada as of the runs so far to funnel cold air advection.

May be to soon for Lucy, but she's definitely deflating those footballs before the kick.

a negative tilt means double the intensity. It would a lot wetter situation and could mean severe weather.

[Brent]

Man that storm on the 30th almost snows here... so close... flakes in McKinney taken verbatim



and at 324 hours another one... snowstorm down to the Red River with some flakes just north of the metro

and hints of another close call at 384 lol Winter is coming guys.

[TexasF6]

Most models hinting at chance of tornadoes today. GFS saying marginal, NAM, NAM4K like TOR possibilities, but it is the NAM. Which is better in the short, near term. Keep an eye to the sky today Central Texas!!! Discussion hinted at possibly backing the threat up to the west as well.

[Ralph's Weather]

06Z shift the storm on the 1st a bit further south bringing N TX solidly into the snow. I'd feel better with a stronger surface high though.

[aggiecutter]

Let it rain, Let it rain, Let it rain:

[Ntxw]

If the models still show a threat of the big storm by thanksgiving day I think we need to put up a bears watch. That hudson bay block will force it south. Models are sometimes notorious for attempting to drill systems into blocks but often they tend to go around it. More times than not around means under and out south.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

Area just south of Alaska getting warmer. Eating into the cold anomalies. Good news.

[dhweather]

No cat 5 in the Gulf on the 12Z GFS run. I'm heartbroken.


It is nice to see some progression with the pattern, systems coming through every 3-5 days, instead of every 20 or 30 days. Everyone needs rain. Everyone.

Some places in Alabama haven't had measurable rain in 2 months... that would be in 2nd place on even DFW's driest streak and it's a lot more common here!

It's been terrible in MS/AL/GA , most of the area has had a brutally dry Fall. Hope next week's system drenches them.

[Portastorm]

Seen some stuff online over the last month or two showing wildfires in parts of Alabama ... extraordinary. Never thought I'd see that there of all places. Yeah, they desperately need rain. Hopefully this active southern jet we're about to experience will rain on them as well.