ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

A lot of models showed Michael performing a cyclonic loop as he moved through the Yucatan Channel. The large northward jump on the last pass shows this well. The center will probably take on a more westerly motion at some point before resuming the northward motion.

For those commenting about the westerly movement. It’s not something that should change track too much.

[EquusStorm]

Also, Opal peaked at 916mb before significantly weakening, so Michael could match or near Opal's landfall intensity but I highly doubt matches her peak heh

[caneman]

Looking better and better for the west coast of Florida aside from some storm surge further North.

[BobHarlem]

Opal was 23 years ago, how much has that area grown in the Panhandle since then?

[La Sirena]

And my Panhandle family are already saying "hype" and such nonsense. I am trying to talk some sense into them

Here in SE Alabama people are calling it nonsense. That it's exaggerated and a non-issue.

Agreed. I’m in southeast Alabama as well and I haven’t met anyone who’s getting prepped today.

[jaxfladude]

Thanks for the replies. Hopefully Michael underperformes when all is said and done.

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[Frank P]

Trying to figure out the center on IR loops, not sure but guessing could the center now about in the middle of the Yucatan channel... is that even possible? Does anyone have a recent recon fix on Michael... dense convection in red sure getting close to the Yucatan east coast

[chaser1]

Microwave pass

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

Nice presentation there. Looks like an EWRC?

[gfsperpendicular]

Microwave pass

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

Nice presentation there. Looks like an EWRC?

It does kinda look like that, but idk if that tiny first eyewall was ever well defined enough.

[chaser1]

Will this hit Washington DC, this weekend?

Washington DOES look like it could be in the cross-hairs (well, Washington North Carolina that is )

[NDG]

Pressure down to 978mb

165130 2130N 08503W 8424 01318 9784 +222 +119 154003 005 015 001 03

[ScottNAtlanta]

978.4 extrapolated pressure in most recent pass

[NDG]

Lowest pressure back east closer to 85W

21.5N & 85.05W

[cycloneye]

[MississippiWx]

Pressure down to 978mb

165130 2130N 08503W 8424 01318 9784 +222 +119 154003 005 015 001 03

Strongest winds are still pretty far from the center relative to what you’d expect. Core still needs to tighten for the winds to increase appreciably. Even still, deepening continues.

[ScottNAtlanta]

On MIMIC it looks like the northern eye wall is very close to the tip of Cuba

[NDG]

[SeaBrz_FL]

One thing to consider is that Michael will not likely strike Florida while at peak intensity. It would be rare for a recurving hurricane not to weaken prior to landfall. I think Michael will peak in 24-36 hours, followed by some weakening prior to landfall. Perhaps 125-130 mph then down to 110-115 mph at landfall. Still a powerful hurricane, but a bit weaker.

Completely agree it's rare, but SWFL Charley survivors will never forget what happened to them. Granted, forecasting has much improved over the past 14 years, but IMHO best to "prepare for the worst, hope for the best".

Side note - the weather.gov Charley Service Assessment is a fascinating read listing all of the forecasting and warning improvements that were learned from that one storm:

https://www.weather.gov/media/publicati ... rley06.pdf

[GCANE]

Core looks to be heating up.
About 7.5C above ambient on this pass.

[Blow_Hard]

Also, Opal peaked at 916mb before significantly weakening, so Michael could match or near Opal's landfall intensity but I highly doubt matches her peak heh

As Scott already posted, Opal weakened a bit after undergoing and EWRC but Opal also had some dry air intrusion issues she was fending off...living here in PC I vividly remember Opal.

On a side note, I just drove down Front Beach Rd. here in PCB and the surf is really starting to kick up. Red flags are flying and I still saw plenty of people in the water, including children...