Texas Fall 2019

[Ntxw]

And don't think it is happening at a coincidence, 2019 favored blocking regions cards have already been played.

https://i.imgur.com/bpCfycE.png

Ntxw, you dont think the cold air is too far west? Maybe thats a good thing now, but imo, its too far west based on the sw troughing and other things.

Shallow, cold air. Dagger cold down the Great Plains.

This time of year, we usually talk about anomalous low pressure systems bringing below normal, or a deep Great Lakes trough. This is not it, this is -EPO cold shot, seen from a mile away.

[Brent]

snow in West Texas on the Euro Friday (not just the Panhandle either..)



also a really good setup for widespread rain for most of us. Really good run for that

[gpsnowman]

This is shaping up to be a dream scenario for cold/wet lovers. It's almost to good to be true. And that is what worries me...........

[bubba hotep]

NWS is going 80% of T-storms for MBY, they were at 60% for the last system before finally cutting all the way back to 30%. The model trend has been for the models to start drying out in this range, will we see the Euro cut totals back at 12z and then the HiRes models at 18z/00z???? I hope not, time to break the trend!

Finally breaking the trend? Looks pretty good for N. TX but now need avoid any significant svr wx.

[bubba hotep]

One of the better HRRR runs over the last few months?

[bubba hotep]

[rwfromkansas]

Looks promising!

[EnnisTx]

No time to chase the models. What timeframe for storm initiation do we expect out to the West? I was thinking about 5:00 or 6:00 pm.

[Brent]

end of the week still looks good on the Euro too(a widespread soaking rain), maybe we're finally flipping to the wet pattern

No time to chase the models. What timeframe for storm initiation do we expect out to the West? I was thinking about 5:00 or 6:00 pm.

honestly the HRRR and NAM don't show much til after 8-9pm with a midnight arrival in the metro

[EnnisTx]

end of the week still looks good on the Euro too(a widespread soaking rain), maybe we're finally flipping to the wet pattern

No time to chase the models. What timeframe for storm initiation do we expect out to the West? I was thinking about 5:00 or 6:00 pm.

honestly the HRRR and NAM don't show much til after 8-9pm with a midnight arrival in the metro

Later than I was thinking then. Yea hope the wet pattern pans out too. Is the drastic cold still coming.?

[Brent]

end of the week still looks good on the Euro too(a widespread soaking rain), maybe we're finally flipping to the wet pattern

No time to chase the models. What timeframe for storm initiation do we expect out to the West? I was thinking about 5:00 or 6:00 pm.

honestly the HRRR and NAM don't show much til after 8-9pm with a midnight arrival in the metro

Later than I was thinking then. Yea hope the wet pattern pans out too. Is the drastic cold still coming.?

so far there's nothing drastic that I see... the ensembles have highs in the 60s for Halloween so we'll see how it trends

Friday/Saturday looks kind of similar to that front the other week temps wise

[bubba hotep]

Storms already going off!

[EnnisTx]

Tornado Watch for all North Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Multiple free cells roaming the WAA regime could be problematic for DFW :thatescalatedquickly:

[Brent]

Multiple free cells roaming the WAA regime could be problematic for DFW :thatescalatedquickly:

Yeah that got surprisingly interesting quick

[aggiecutter]

Tornado Watch for all North Texas.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

TORNADO WATCH 676 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC035-037-063-067-085-093-097-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-159-
181-183-193-203-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-315-337-343-
349-363-365-367-379-387-397-401-423-425-429-439-449-459-467-497-
499-503-210700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0676.191021T0000Z-191021T0700Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP
CASS COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DELTA
DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS
ERATH FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HAMILTON
HARRISON HENDERSON HILL
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MONTAGUE
MORRIS NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PANOLA PARKER RAINS
RED RIVER ROCKWALL RUSK
SMITH SOMERVELL STEPHENS
TARRANT TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WISE WOOD
YOUNG


Reed Timmer
@ReedTimmerAccu
LIVE update on nocturnal severe weather outbreak with #tornado potential about to get started across northeast TX, East OK into AR overnight tonight. Extreme wind shear could even lead to strong tornado potential. Stay tuned to severe weather warnings. Long night ahead


NBC 6 Weather
@NBC6Weather
·
5m
SHV issues Tornado Warning for Panola, Rusk [TX] till 8:00 PM CDT

[Cerlin]

I thought this wasn’t supposed to get interesting for at least a few more hours...

[bubba hotep]

Look at that split! Also, keep an eye on the far SW cell, esp. if it makes a right turn.

[Brent]

I thought this wasn’t supposed to get interesting for at least a few more hours...

right? Even the news at 5 was doubting cells ahead of the line because of the "strong cap" so much for that

[rwfromkansas]

Getting some rain and thunder. Hope the airport gets some before the main show. Edit: looks like my storm won’t make it to the airport.