Texas Fall 2023

[rwfromkansas]

Insurance is insane right now. I probably could have gotten a new roof if I wanted, as it has minor hail dings, but not enough to truly justify it. But, if insurance keeps going up like it is, the next hailstorm, I will say forget it and do it. In another 5-10 years it will be due for a replacement anyway. Our insurance in 2015 was $600 and now $2100 and that's with multiple shopping around attempts.

[Iceresistance]

I'm not ready for this! I am not ready for Snowtober!


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[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS ensembles look good for a big front next weekend. Need the Euro ensembles to get onboard now.

[cstrunk]

Insurance is insane right now. I probably could have gotten a new roof if I wanted, as it has minor hail dings, but not enough to truly justify it. But, if insurance keeps going up like it is, the next hailstorm, I will say forget it and do it. In another 5-10 years it will be due for a replacement anyway. Our insurance in 2015 was $600 and now $2100 and that's with multiple shopping around attempts.

It's a catch-22 right now because if you do file a claim, your premiums will probably sky-rocket even more or you may even get dropped, but if you don't, you'll end up having to pay $10-20k+ for a new roof out of pocket which is not fun either.

[TropicalTundra]

GFS ensembles look good for a big front next weekend. Need the Euro ensembles to get onboard now.

Along with rain sometime Wednesday and Friday-Sat. Models have been projecting sleet/snow west of OKC with the front moving in Friday night.

[rwfromkansas]

I want to see the Euro on board before getting excited. It has had the rains in FAR west TX.

[Ntxw]

The rains are dependent on EPAC's Norma movement and injection. Then how much provided lift the ULL from the wests can punch out. Areas that get both will be the winner.

Very warm for October rest of this week and weekend. Pre-Halloween cold snap after the rains. Halloween looks to start chilly as the cold air is moving out, a bit early to forecast.

[Gotwood]

Insurance is insane right now. I probably could have gotten a new roof if I wanted, as it has minor hail dings, but not enough to truly justify it. But, if insurance keeps going up like it is, the next hailstorm, I will say forget it and do it. In another 5-10 years it will be due for a replacement anyway. Our insurance in 2015 was $600 and now $2100 and that's with multiple shopping around attempts.

Yeah my home was built in 2008 and just had it replaced last November for the first time. The Actual cash value hit was rough had to come out of pocket more than I wanted but hopefully won’t have to worry about a new one anytime soon.

[rwfromkansas]

I hope it ejects so much of TX gets this. But, I will say, western OK up into central KS are also in dire straits. This drought is across a huge area.

[Brent]

I hope it ejects so much of TX gets this. But, I will say, western OK up into central KS are also in dire straits. This drought is across a huge area.

Yeah were not in great shape here either but it's way worse to the west and northwest of here. I know the models are trying to hint at wintry but I'd rather just have a good widespread rain for a couple days. We'll have plenty of time for wintry in a few weeks

[Itryatgolf]

I hope it ejects so much of TX gets this. But, I will say, western OK up into central KS are also in dire straits. This drought is across a huge area.

Yeah were not in great shape here either but it's way worse to the west and northwest of here. I know the models are trying to hint at wintry but I'd rather just have a good widespread rain for a couple days. We'll have plenty of time for wintry in a few weeks

We are in a bad rain drought in my area also. The miss river is the lowest its been in a long time

[HockeyTx82]

Insurance is insane right now. I probably could have gotten a new roof if I wanted, as it has minor hail dings, but not enough to truly justify it. But, if insurance keeps going up like it is, the next hailstorm, I will say forget it and do it. In another 5-10 years it will be due for a replacement anyway. Our insurance in 2015 was $600 and now $2100 and that's with multiple shopping around attempts.

It's a catch-22 right now because if you do file a claim, your premiums will probably sky-rocket even more or you may even get dropped, but if you don't, you'll end up having to pay $10-20k+ for a new roof out of pocket which is not fun either.

Took me a year for State Farm to buy my roof and that was only after I filed a formal complaint with Texas TDI.

Got a reply from corporate after taking that route and then dropped them after I got my new roof as they wanted double for the same coverage that my new company I am with now is charging.

https://www.tdi.texas.gov/consumer/get- ... laint.html

Word of advice, communicate only in text and email. Don't take phone calls when fighting them. Much easier to send those emails in for evidence.

[Ntxw]

The drought has taken a toll on a lot of the trees. There are many stressed, browned and not because of Fall foliage. The next severe wind storm will probably be costly for many, the weakened trees could cause damage. Wouldn't be a bad idea to get them assessed for survivability and trim. It's not fun or cheap, but if there is a risk probably worth it.

[tajmahal]

Many tree species (including live oaks) drop their leaves during drought. That alone does not mean they're dead or dieing. Some species live hundreds of years and have survived worse droughts than this. People should be watering their trees.

[tajmahal]

Merely calling or otherwise contacting one's home insurance company about the possibility of filing a claim can result in higher premiums.

[tajmahal]

How is this year's El Niño going in comparison to the "super" ones in 2015–16 and 1997–98? Much weaker so far.

There have been two extreme El Niño events in the past 30 years: the first from 1997 to 1998 and the second from 2015 to 2016. Both caused shifts in global air and ocean temperatures, atmospheric wind and rainfall patterns, and sea level. ... By October 1997 and 2015, large areas of the central and eastern Pacific had sea levels more than 7 inches (18 centimeters) higher than normal. This year, sea levels are about 2 or 3 inches (5 to 8 centimeters) higher than average and over a smaller area compared to the 1997 and 2015 events. Both of the past El Niños reached peak strength in late November or early December, so this year’s event may still intensify. 'Every El Niño is a little bit different,' said Josh Willis, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. 'This one seems modest compared to the big events, but it could still give us a wet winter here in the Southwest U.S. if conditions are right.'

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/international-ocean-satellite-monitors-how-el-nino-is-shaping-up

[weatherdude1108]

Came across this story about people constructing unregistered dams along rivers and tributaries that would otherwise fill the lakes, adding insult to injury.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/illegal-dam-in-mason-county-blocking-water-from-refilling-highland-lakes/?embedded_webview=true

[jasons2k]

Latest USDA Drought monitor:

[jasons2k]

Winter Outlook:

[weatherdude1108]

Been consistent at least the past couple days.