toad strangler wrote:REDHurricane wrote:
A little bit of dry air can only do so much to disrupt an intensifying system that has an otherwise nearly perfect environment to work with, this will likely become a hurricane within the next 6-12 hours or so
I don’t understand this reasoning. There is a fair amount of dry air to the W and models show it increasing. Question is, does Debby keep it from infiltrating the COC? This could go either way. But don’t dismiss it. This dry air can absolutely keep Debby from flying off the handle. Just have to watch.
I mean I don't think it's going to be a cat 5 or anything, but if Debby's already at 50 kt then I think a 15 kt increase over 12 hours isn't unreasonable, even with some dry air disruption.