NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Melissa single-handedly making the Caribbean from a graveyard this season to featuring potentially the most intense storm worldwide for the year.

[Fancy1002]

Unless something goes wrong overnight, Melissa is going to be a terrifying beauty in the morning.

Wouldn't be surprised to see it reach category 5 sometime tomorrow, possibly fairly early if the rate picks up (and if the eye opens up it just might).

Agreed, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what I wake up to in about nine hours. Then the question is where will it peek at. We can only hope that it doesn’t peak close to landfall.

[mrbagyo]

[Iceresistance]

Melissa's eye temperature increased from -50.85C to -17.3C in less than 30 minutes. Absolutely insane, it literally shot up like a rocket

[Woofde]

Melissa's eye temperature increased from -50.85C to -17.3C in less than 30 minutes. Absolutely insane, it literally shot up like a rocket

I doubt it spends much time at Category 3. Everything is set up for some explosive intensification.

[Kazmit]

The size of the CDO has absolutely ballooned.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/KyleNoelWx/status/1982297710679003586

[FireRat]

2025-ing on 10/25/25
The events of tonight are only the beginning I'm afraid, we will probably look back on this moment and tomorrow's day as the time Melissa went absolutely guano crazy! The events of tonight are nothing short of extraordinary, and Jamaica really needs to be bracing for impact - from likely Cat 5 winds to a Harvey-like deluge but over mountainous terrain.

2025 saved the worst for last, after playing nice, it's now stealthily come up to deliver a devastating strike.
This thing is absolutely bombing right now, very reminiscent of Otis 2 years to the day. WOW.

[wx98]

Looks like the plane is heading in for another pass soon. NE to SW. We’ll see if the intensification is continuing (it likely is).

[Keldeo1997]

Oh noooooo

Edit: Also how in heck did it get a annular structure?

[Iceresistance]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1431861364498104452/8058426ADE7B6C06D22C7FD4D1EEE5C3.png?ex=68fef44f&is=68fda2cf&hm=7049ca38f8cadd688d8fd99af4ac9b2f2252282b207ec4b55fc87f83542487eb&

Oh noooooo

Holy crap I have never seen anything like this before
Super thick eyewall with no banding

Removed image since it was the same, whoops

[edu2703]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1431861979290800250/IMG_5367.jpeg?ex=68fef4e2&is=68fda362&hm=3b70e929e0ffcf966f74923b7d20b31cc6553698efb3073802b70ebacc79c3b8&

Oh noooooo

This is a WPAC-level monster

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking it finds a pressure around 955 this pass.

[zzzh]

Both microwave and radar indicate there is a thin rainband just outside of the eyewall (you can see the 2 layers). This kind of structure reminds me of Irma.

[Teban54]

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1431861979290800250/IMG_5367.jpeg?ex=68fef4e2&is=68fda362&hm=3b70e929e0ffcf966f74923b7d20b31cc6553698efb3073802b70ebacc79c3b8&

Oh noooooo

Edit: Also how in heck did it get a annular structure?

Absolutely no EWRC anywhere near occurring

[Woofde]

:double:

Absolutely stunning how fast the eye popped and symmetrization occured.

[Tekken_Guy]

Melissa single-handedly making the Caribbean from a graveyard this season to featuring potentially the most intense storm worldwide for the year.

It doesn’t look like it will top Ragasa at this point.

[Woofde]

Melissa single-handedly making the Caribbean from a graveyard this season to featuring potentially the most intense storm worldwide for the year.

It doesn’t look like it will top Ragasa at this point.

It could be close, Melissa has plenty of time still and the SSTs are nonlimiting. However the environment isn't perfect and Jamaica is close enough to maybe put a wrinkle on the inflow. I wouldn't confidently bet either way.

[sasha_B]

Melissa single-handedly making the Caribbean from a graveyard this season to featuring potentially the most intense storm worldwide for the year.

It doesn’t look like it will top Ragasa at this point.

Ragasa's official peak was 140 kts / 905 hPa (though admittedly in post-season analysis that intensity may be increased based on buoy obs.). Melissa is forecast to at least match Ragasa's wind speed, and matching its central pressure isn't at all outside the realm of possibility (several GDM ensemble members show such a scenario). We've got a storm with a nearly perfect structure, no signs of an imminent EWRC, and 36 hours before landfall...I wouldn't count her out yet.