TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Nimbus]

With landfall from Florida up to the Carolinas possible all thats left is the intensity forecast.
Do you think we will see more than a weak Cat 3 before landfall?

[gkrangers]

With landfall from Florida up to the Carolinas possible all thats left is the intensity forecast.
Do you think we will see more than a weak Cat 3 before landfall?

Umm..recurvature is still very likely.

[dwg71]

With landfall from Florida up to the Carolinas possible all thats left is the intensity forecast.
Do you think we will see more than a weak Cat 3 before landfall?

Intensity is not all that's left, we dont even have a tropical storm and NHC has it forecast on a path that will not cross 70W. Not only is a US landfall not immenent, its still unlikely.

[wxman57]

New image added to the loop now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopaug9.gif

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think the real "limit" would be cat 5. Seems to me that most cat 5's never make landfall and it's well within the possibility for this storm to get there.

[wxwatcher91]

With landfall from Florida up to the Carolinas possible all thats left is the intensity forecast.
Do you think we will see more than a weak Cat 3 before landfall?

Umm..recurvature is still very likely.

the track is still very very uncertain... I have no idea how anyone can say "Florida up to the Carolinas" without cracking up laughing at this point... the entire east coast should be watching Irene PLUS she could even recurve out to sea as gkrangers said.

[Coredesat]

18z models:

[WeatherEmperor]

I think the real "limit" would be cat 5. Seems to me that most cat 5's never make landfall and it's well within the possibility for this storm to get there.

are u kidding me? u seriously think this could reach Cat 5 status?

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

Sheesh, If I did not no better, I would think you guys had never seen convection before.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z models:

This thing has to be adjusted way west at 5...Crazy

[Weatherboy1]

by then, I think we'll have a much better idea if this will be a US threat and if so, where that threat will be. It's simply too early to say what's going to happen because we're easily a week out from any potential strike. It's fun to watch and speculate on Irene, but really, that's all it is right now -- speculation.

-Mike

[Rainband]

Models continue to shift to the left. I say Florida needs to watch this storm if this thing continues to move on it's current track. Lots of things can happen Though. Wouldn't you know it it all depends on the ridge..once again. Too early to say whats going to happen. Watch and Wait

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think the real "limit" would be cat 5. Seems to me that most cat 5's never make landfall and it's well within the possibility for this storm to get there.

are u kidding me? u seriously think this could reach Cat 5 status?

<RICKY>

I did not say I think it will. I said it could. several storms have rapidly intensified in cooler SST's than what we have near the coast now. If the conditions set up stay that way long enough yes. Cat 5's are rare, but they necessarilyly take that long to get to cat 5 when they go, In fact they usually get there pretty quick and then weaken.

[WeatherEmperor]

Models continue to shift to the left. I say Florida needs to watch this storm if this thing continues to move on it's current track. Lots of things can happen Though. Wouldn't you know it it all depends on the ridge..once again. Too early to say whats going to happen. Watch and Wait

i hate watching and waiting. it completely disrupts my daily rythm of activities.

<RICKY>

[Astro_man92]

here are a couple of good Irene loops

Loop 1: folowing Irene

Loop 2: Irene

after watching these it looks like Irene is finally pulling the big one the whole thing is rapping around the center I say it is onlt a mater of time now befor it upgrades to hurricane and forms an eye

[BensonTCwatcher]

From the outset, this storm has a strong core or circulation. It has gone though very dry air, and high shear. And then it went though dry air and shear at the same time. It would have a lot more attention now, if it did not go through those conditions.

[Astro_man92]

Models continue to shift to the left. I say Florida needs to watch this storm if this thing continues to move on it's current track. Lots of things can happen Though. Wouldn't you know it it all depends on the ridge..once again. Too early to say whats going to happen. Watch and Wait

i hate watching and waiting. it completely disrupts my daily rythm of activities.

<RICKY>

ya Irene is going to slow how fast is it going anyways

ah here it is Tracking Irene

does any one else have any better tracking tools over the internet that you do not need to download other then Storm2k or wunderground?

[Astro_man92]

From the outset, this storm has a strong core or circulation. It has gone though very dry air, and high shear. And then it went though dry air and shear at the same time. It would have a lot more attention now, if it did not go through those conditions.

would you have expected it to desipate under those conditions?

[BensonTCwatcher]

From the outset, this storm has a strong core or circulation. It has gone though very dry air, and high shear. And then it went though dry air and shear at the same time. It would have a lot more attention now, if it did not go through those conditions.

would you have expected it to desipate under those conditions?

Yes, I did. I had to do a flip flop on this board I thought it would keep a strong core and move west, but when it got pummeled and started moving into that weakness I thought she would recurve and dissipate. Now my best guess is the higher likelyhood is landfall rather than recurve or dissipate.

Irene is entering my "watch box" from around 20-35N and 57-60W. I gas up the generator when the NHC position is 225 SSE of Wilmington NC

[clfenwi]

From the outset, this storm has a strong core or circulation. It has gone though very dry air, and high shear. And then it went though dry air and shear at the same time. It would have a lot more attention now, if it did not go through those conditions.

Yep, that is kind of the point I was going to make with regards to Sea Surface Temperatures... with the exception of the Friday Morning Surprise and immediately thereafter, SSTs haven't been the problem for Irene. After all, for the upper tropics and lower mid-latitudes, the temperature gradient is east-west, meaning that SSTs have been getting steadily warmer as Irene has progressed westward. ( http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/natl_sst_oper0.gif )

As you state, the issue has been in the atmosphere. Watching the water vapor loop, it seems like that the benefit of the air coming south after going around the ULL off the east coast is that it brought down some moisture and pushed the dry air further south.