Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe Wxman57 will post his thoughts to confirm the suspicions of the other Storm2k pro mets that this will be nothing but a sheared tropical storm at best. Wxman57 had been concerned of a major hurricane in the GOM.

He might be busy and could feel differently now....

[miamicanes177]

Legendary Alabama ABC 33/40 professional meteorologist James Spann has this to say in his forecast:

"FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The Canadian GEM is the most interesting model, but an outlier. It develops a tropical storm in the Atlantic just below Jacksonville, Florida, and moves it to the west/northwest right into Alabama over the weekend. If this solution is correct, we could have soaking rain statewide on Saturday and possibly on Sunday as well. But, we don’t buy into that solution.

The GFS seems more reasonable; it develops a tropical system in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico; then moving it to the west, with a landfall along the southern coast of Texas around South Padre Island late in the weekend on Sunday. This would mean a continuation of mostly dry weather for North Alabama into Saturday, with the deeper moisture confined to the southern quarter of the state. A few showers could develop around here on Sunday as moisture moves northward.

Anytime a tropical system is involved, of course, things can change in a hurry. But for now, I like the GFS solution on the system. Our friends on the Texas coast will really have to watch this; that water is warm in the Gulf, and with a decent upper air wind pattern some rapid strengthening will be possible (remember Humberto?)."
http://alabamawx.com/

[Air Force Met]

can we really get much baroclinic enhancement with a westward moving TC? That usually happens when we have a very strong trough advancing to the east when the TC is downwind of the trough. In this case, the TC would be upwind of the trough and the QG support just is not going to be the same

if this has to rely upon purely baroclinic forcing, this may be fortunate to ever see a name then

Ahhhh...you see now....my point...

But...I think if a sfc low forms the gradient alone would be enough to get a designation. It's already pretty tight out there.

This kinda stuff happens in the western GoM...and that is what I am picturing. It then has the problem of moving thru the upper low as it goes west...

Lot's of questions. This is certainly not as cut-n-dried as it seems.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB just updated, a tropical storm (whether named or not is implied) as early as late Thursday in Central GOMEX, feature moving W to NW over weekend. Again, he implies at least a TS, some concern it is something more.


Also, speaking of Bahamas, after that is all done, something else that may involve worm infested corpse of Ingrid.

[MiamiensisWx]

Katrina also had favorable upper air conditions... this thing is almost certainly not going to have favorable conditions

Right now, as I stated in my evening PNJ blog post, a TS at most is all I can see from this

Would the amount of shear depend on the upper low's movement and entry angle into the GOM? If it moves WSW, the strong upper-level divergence may subside at a quicker pace; the opposite scenario (per you and AFM) would mean certain toast for the Bahamas system. A quick-moving upper low may actually help the system, but it is far too uncertain. I think the adjacent front also could support an initial baroclinic system. I tended to believe it would produce an initial negative effect on the Bahamas area, but it would eventually aid the system.

Ironically, one of our esteemed fellow Floridians (and Gator fans) vanished when you and AFM posted the messages. The poster vanished like the rain that never arrived in Palm Beach County during the spring. This fellow actually gave me credit for "noticing" our system. Since then, the poster disappeared. I guess we can relax and enjoy the precipitation.

[miamicanes177]

JB just updated, a tropical storm (whether named or not is implied) as early as late Thursday in Central GOMEX, feature moving W to NW over weekend. Again, he implies at least a TS, some concern it is something more.


Also, speaking of Bahamas, after that is all done, something else that may involve worm infested corpse of Ingrid.

wow that gets me very concerned. He has in my opinion outperformed even the NHC this year with his forecasts. I'm paying extra close attention now that he is all systems go.

[DESTRUCTION5]

JB just updated, a tropical storm (whether named or not is implied) as early as late Thursday in Central GOMEX, feature moving W to NW over weekend. Again, he implies at least a TS, some concern it is something more.


Also, speaking of Bahamas, after that is all done, something else that may involve worm infested corpse of Ingrid.

LMAO NIce analogy..

[Derek Ortt]

the amount of shear would depend upon the location in the GOM, as well as the TC location

if this were a month later north of the Bahamas, we could get development directly under the UL (had that in 2000 and 2001 with Michael, Noel, and Olga) despite very cold SSTs because the tropopause temps are so cold, producing high instability. Cannot get a major out of that set-up due to the upper convergence though

Doubt we will see a UL in mid September over the GOM with upper temps cold enough to allow for that scenario, even if this did move directly under the UL (and its far more likely to remain in the shearing)

[Air Force Met]

Katrina also had favorable upper air conditions... this thing is almost certainly not going to have favorable conditions

Right now, as I stated in my evening PNJ blog post, a TS at most is all I can see from this

Would the amount of shear depend on the upper low's movement and entry angle into the GOM? If it moves WSW, the strong upper-level divergence may subside at a quicker pace; the opposite scenario (per you and AFM) would mean certain toast for the Bahamas system. A quick-moving upper low may actually help the system, but it is far too uncertain. I think the adjacent front also could support an initial baroclinic system. I tended to believe it would produce an initial negative effect on the Bahamas area, but it would eventually aid the system.

Ironically, one of our esteemed fellow Floridians (and Gator fans) vanished when you and AFM posted the messages. The poster vanished like the rain that never arrived in Palm Beach County during the spring. This fellow actually gave me credit for "noticing" our system. Since then, the poster disappeared. I guess we can relax and enjoy the precipitation.

Some people don't like "bad" news.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm..

All this talk of a "sheared TD or TS at most" sure brings back memories of Humberto. I remember quite a few pro mets saying the same thing as little as 12 hours before his explosive development...and we all know what the outcome of that was. IMO, With it being September and with a warm GOM, I think the potential is certainly there for something more than a sheared TD/TS to develop. I am not saying this will happen, but if the trend of the year continues (storms trying to tighten up as they approach the western GOM), then it wouldn't be impossible to see a hurricane spin up given enough time. We shall see though. It is definitely too early to make a call until something actually forms and we see the full picture of what's going on.

[Derek Ortt]

The baroclinic forcing is totally different with this than Humberto

Humberto was downwind of the baroclinic feature, this is upwind. Basic QG theory dictates that the atmosphere is nowhere as favorable for development

Comparisons with Humberto are, IMO, inappropriate due to the glaring atmospheric differences

[jasons2k]

I think the prudent thing to do is wait n' see what we got first, then we can worry about intensity.

From NWS Shreveport:

STILL TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF AND WHEN THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
ORGANIZED... WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN GAIN TRUE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT GIVEN THE WARM GULF WATERS AND SEEING HOW
QUICKLY HUMBERTO GATHERED STRENGTH LAST WEEK...ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM SIMILAR TO HUMBERTO
MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion

['CaneFreak]

Hmm..

All this talk of a "sheared TD or TS at most" sure brings back memories of Humberto. I remember quite a few pro mets saying the same thing as little as 12 hours before his explosive development...and we all know what the outcome of that was. IMO, With it being September and with a warm GOM, I think the potential is certainly there for something more than a sheared TD/TS to develop. I am not saying this will happen, but if the trend of the year continues (storms trying to tighten up as they approach the western GOM), then it wouldn't be impossible.

Boy, these kinds of posts are gaining popularity more and more everyday it seems. Just because Humberto and some others blew up earlier in the season, has ABSOLUTELY NO bearing on what will happen in this case. THE SYNOPTICS ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT. This could either be a huge hurricane getting dual outflow channels or it could be a sheared TC like the pro-mets are suggesting. We shall see. Personally, I am a little baffled at the moment. Not sure what to think ATM. I have to agree with what the pro-mets are saying at this point WITH CAUTION because I know what can happen. This could be the weather event of the year or just another sheared 2007 TC.

[Vortex]

Recent radar and satellite images show what looks to be the beginning of a surface low near Anfros island in the Bahamas..

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Air Force Met]

Hmm..

All this talk of a "sheared TD or TS at most" sure brings back memories of Humberto. I remember quite a few pro mets saying the same thing as little as 12 hours before his explosive development...and we all know what the outcome of that was. IMO, With it being September and with a warm GOM, I think the potential is certainly there for something more than a sheared TD/TS to develop. I am not saying this will happen, but if the trend of the year continues (storms trying to tighten up as they approach the western GOM), then it wouldn't be impossible.

I'm not sure which pro-mets they were...and I don't remember "quite a few pro-mets" saying anything about shear. I know I didn't... I believe I gave it a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane that morning...simply because it was deepening at 1mb+ per hour. I know the staff was a little shocked when I told them I thought it could become a hurricane.

I didn't see ANY shear then...but there IS right now....and there will be until whatever finally develops moves into the central or western GOM. If you would like to post some facts that opposes that...I'm all for it.

And...I think if you would actually not take this personally...like this storm is one of your children...you would see that the CONTEXT of the conversation was that we were speaking of this being a sheared TS off the coast of FLORIDA. We were not discussing what would happen once it gets into the western GOM (if it does). Matter of fact...I even said that the upper levels would improve once it was there (which by its very nature IMPLIES it could be more than a sheared system).

[gatorcane]

Winds across South Florida are increasing...seems like something is brewing offshore:

NAPLES CLOUDY 79 74 84 N6 29.97R
W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 77 73 87 N8 30.00R
FT LAUDER-EXEC CLOUDY 82 73 74 NE12 29.97R
FT LAUDERDALE CLOUDY 85 71 63 NE9 29.96R
POMPANO BEACH CLOUDY 82 72 71 NE14 29.97R
PEMBROKE PINES CLOUDY 83 72 69 NE8 29.99R
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 84 72 67 NE7 29.97S
MIAMI CLOUDY 84 71 65 NE8 29.97R
MIAMI BEACH N/A 84 74 73 E14 29.97R
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 82 71 69 E6 29.97R
HOMESTEAD CLOUDY 82 74 75 NE7 29.98R

[perk]

Hmm..

All this talk of a "sheared TD or TS at most" sure brings back memories of Humberto. I remember quite a few pro mets saying the same thing as little as 12 hours before his explosive development...and we all know what the outcome of that was. IMO, With it being September and with a warm GOM, I think the potential is certainly there for something more than a sheared TD/TS to develop. I am not saying this will happen, but if the trend of the year continues (storms trying to tighten up as they approach the western GOM), then it wouldn't be impossible.

I'm not sure which pro-mets they were...and I don't remember "quite a few pro-mets" saying anything about shear. I know I didn't... I believe I gave it a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane that morning...simply because it was deepening at 1mb+ per hour. I know the staff was a little shocked when I told them I thought it could become a hurricane.

I didn't see ANY shear then...but there IS right now....and there will be until whatever finally develops moves into the central or western GOM. If you would like to post some facts that opposes that...I'm all for it.

And...I think if you would actually not take this personally...like this storm is one of your children...you would see that the CONTEXT of the conversation was that we were speaking of this being a sheared TS off the coast of FLORIDA. We were not discussing what would happen once it gets into the western GOM (if it does). Matter of fact...I even said that the upper levels would improve once it was there (which by its very nature IMPLIES it could be more than a sheared system).

Judging by the nasty tone of your post you're the one that's taking this personal.

[Stratosphere747]

There is some history there Perk, and I think AFM i being more than cordial and not taking it "personal."

[cpdaman]

Winds across South Florida are increasing...seems like something is brewing offshore:

NAPLES CLOUDY 79 74 84 N6 29.97R
W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 77 73 87 N8 30.00R
FT LAUDER-EXEC CLOUDY 82 73 74 NE12 29.97R
FT LAUDERDALE CLOUDY 85 71 63 NE9 29.96R
POMPANO BEACH CLOUDY 82 72 71 NE14 29.97R
PEMBROKE PINES CLOUDY 83 72 69 NE8 29.99R
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 84 72 67 NE7 29.97S
MIAMI CLOUDY 84 71 65 NE8 29.97R
MIAMI BEACH N/A 84 74 73 E14 29.97R
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 82 71 69 E6 29.97R
HOMESTEAD CLOUDY 82 74 75 NE7 29.98R

gator i am on the water in s. boca and the wind picked up and has been steady since 8 pm or so

[Ptarmigan]

I think the prudent thing to do is wait n' see what we got first, then we can worry about intensity.

From NWS Shreveport:

STILL TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF AND WHEN THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
ORGANIZED... WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN GAIN TRUE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT GIVEN THE WARM GULF WATERS AND SEEING HOW
QUICKLY HUMBERTO GATHERED STRENGTH LAST WEEK...ITS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM SIMILAR TO HUMBERTO
MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Another repeat this week? Hope not.