ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Derek Ortt]

will say this much, upper winds have become quite a bit more hostile for development this morning. The second UL just dropped right on top of this

as usual, the models have butchered the upper low

I suspect it was the G-IV data that caused the GFS to back off. CMC moves the UL immediately NE, when it is moving SW. Time to chuck that solution and I am backing off of my cane by Friday call

[Derek Ortt]

URNT15 KWBC 260947
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 10 20090826
093730 2511N 07600W 5281 05455 0286 -034 -142 053012 013 999 999 03
093800 2510N 07558W 5281 05453 0284 -034 -131 052011 011 999 999 03
093830 2509N 07556W 5282 05452 0283 -029 -160 054012 012 002 000 03
093900 2508N 07553W 5282 05454 0286 -028 -168 051013 013 999 999 03
093930 2507N 07551W 5283 05452 0285 -028 -151 049013 013 999 999 03
094000 2506N 07549W 5283 05449 0282 -032 -144 043012 012 999 999 03
094030 2505N 07547W 5282 05449 0282 -033 -142 043012 012 999 999 03
094100 2504N 07544W 5282 05448 0281 -034 -139 045014 015 999 999 03
094130 2503N 07542W 5283 05448 0282 -033 -138 044014 015 999 999 03
094200 2502N 07540W 5282 05451 0283 -030 -151 042014 014 999 999 03
094230 2501N 07538W 5282 05450 0283 -032 -149 039014 015 999 999 03
094300 2501N 07535W 5281 05453 0284 -033 -164 037014 015 999 999 03
094330 2500N 07533W 5281 05453 0284 -036 -154 033013 013 999 999 03
094400 2459N 07531W 5281 05453 0284 -037 -165 036012 012 999 999 03
094430 2458N 07529W 5282 05451 0284 -036 -159 033013 014 999 999 03
094500 2457N 07526W 5281 05454 0285 -035 -156 034014 014 999 999 03
094530 2456N 07524W 5282 05451 0283 -036 -153 031014 014 999 999 03
094600 2455N 07522W 5282 05451 0284 -037 -156 030014 014 999 999 03
094630 2454N 07520W 5281 05451 0283 -037 -135 032014 014 999 999 03
094700 2453N 07517W 5282 05451 0283 -035 -121 036014 014 999 999 03

P3 is approaching

[KWT]

So another poor upper forecast from the models, there is a shocker!
So in other words Derek much slower development then was first expected should be the case now.

[Derek Ortt]

might be a closed low on SWIR night

However, it is near 24.5N and 69.5W. You guessed it, EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG SHEAR

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

So what is the most likely solution now then Derek in terms of strength forecast down the line given the upper level low diving down?

As for the center of this thing, recons is heading in so we are going to get a pretty good idea if it does indeed have a closed low or not.

[Nimbus]

Recon will probably be able to nail a position this time. The convection pattern would be consistent with low pressure working its way down to the surface near 24N -29W. Be nice if recon can give us an initial motion to plug into the models.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KWBC 260957
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 11 20090826
094730 2452N 07515W 5282 05450 0283 -032 -145 037013 014 999 999 03
094800 2451N 07513W 5282 05450 0283 -034 -135 034015 016 999 999 03
094830 2450N 07510W 5283 05450 0284 -033 -139 038015 015 999 999 03
094900 2449N 07508W 5283 05451 0284 -034 -129 039015 015 999 999 03
094930 2448N 07506W 5283 05449 0282 -035 -123 039015 016 999 999 03
095000 2447N 07504W 5282 05451 0283 -032 -130 046016 017 999 999 03
095030 2446N 07501W 5282 05450 0283 -032 -133 046017 017 999 999 03
095100 2445N 07459W 5282 05450 0283 -032 -144 040018 018 999 999 03
095130 2444N 07457W 5282 05451 0284 -031 -150 039017 018 999 999 03
095200 2443N 07455W 5282 05451 0283 -030 -151 041017 018 999 999 03
095230 2442N 07452W 5283 05448 0282 -031 -143 041015 015 999 999 03
095300 2441N 07450W 5282 05449 0281 -031 -126 039015 015 004 000 03
095330 2440N 07448W 5284 05444 0280 -032 -120 032015 015 999 999 03
095400 2439N 07446W 5283 05448 0281 -032 -127 036015 016 999 999 03
095430 2438N 07443W 5283 05448 0282 -028 -136 037016 016 999 999 03
095500 2437N 07441W 5283 05446 0281 -029 -132 040014 015 999 999 03
095530 2436N 07439W 5280 05451 0281 -031 -128 042014 015 999 999 03
095600 2435N 07436W 5277 05455 0280 -033 -126 034015 016 999 999 03
095630 2434N 07434W 5279 05454 0282 -030 -126 042014 015 999 999 03
095700 2433N 07432W 5279 05454 0282 -032 -114 042017 018 999 999 03

000
URNT15 KWBC 261007
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 12 20090826
095730 2432N 07430W 5280 05454 0283 -034 -092 041018 020 999 999 03
095800 2431N 07427W 5280 05454 0284 -033 -098 043018 019 999 999 03
095830 2430N 07425W 5281 05452 0282 -031 -116 042018 019 999 999 03
095900 2429N 07423W 5281 05450 0280 -031 -108 034018 018 999 999 03
095930 2428N 07421W 5280 05451 0280 -033 -105 031018 018 999 999 03
100000 2427N 07418W 5282 05448 0279 -033 -101 023016 018 999 999 03
100030 2427N 07416W 5283 05444 0277 -034 -099 015014 014 003 000 03
100100 2426N 07414W 5282 05447 0278 -032 -094 017013 013 004 000 03
100130 2425N 07411W 5281 05446 0277 -033 -097 022015 016 999 999 03
100200 2424N 07409W 5282 05446 0278 -034 -096 025016 016 999 999 03
100230 2423N 07407W 5282 05446 0278 -035 -097 027014 015 999 999 03
100300 2422N 07404W 5281 05446 0278 -038 -091 025015 016 999 999 03
100330 2420N 07402W 5282 05446 0278 -036 -084 025017 018 006 000 03
100400 2419N 07400W 5282 05445 0278 -034 -096 027018 019 009 000 03
100430 2418N 07357W 5281 05448 0278 -030 -109 035020 021 005 000 00
100500 2417N 07355W 5284 05443 0278 -035 -101 033020 020 006 000 00
100530 2416N 07353W 5279 05450 0279 -037 -096 038019 019 006 000 00
100600 2415N 07351W 5280 05449 0278 -042 -082 037015 016 999 999 03
100630 2414N 07348W 5281 05450 0279 -041 -086 038015 016 999 999 03
100700 2413N 07346W 5279 05452 0280 -042 -056 045014 017 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 261017
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 13 20090826
100730 2412N 07344W 5281 05452 0282 -040 -056 050019 020 999 999 03
100800 2411N 07342W 5280 05452 0282 -038 -067 050020 021 999 999 03
100830 2411N 07340W 5280 05452 0282 -037 -072 051016 017 999 999 03
100900 2410N 07337W 5281 05454 0284 -038 -072 037015 016 999 999 03
100930 2409N 07335W 5279 05456 0284 -039 -075 041014 015 004 000 03
101000 2408N 07333W 5281 05454 0283 -039 -062 051014 014 999 999 03
101030 2407N 07331W 5282 05451 0283 -037 -063 043014 015 999 999 03
101100 2406N 07329W 5281 05454 0284 -034 -074 040015 016 999 999 03
101130 2405N 07327W 5281 05451 0283 -035 -065 054014 014 999 999 03
101200 2404N 07324W 5281 05453 0283 -039 -091 056015 015 999 999 03
101230 2403N 07322W 5282 05450 0283 -038 -067 059013 013 999 999 03
101300 2402N 07320W 5282 05454 0285 -035 -070 052013 013 999 999 03
101330 2401N 07318W 5281 05455 0286 -041 -068 052017 019 999 999 03
101400 2400N 07316W 5282 05454 0287 -039 -075 050019 019 999 999 03
101430 2359N 07313W 5282 05455 0287 -038 -080 043019 020 999 999 03
101500 2358N 07311W 5282 05455 0287 -039 -091 043021 022 999 999 03
101530 2357N 07309W 5282 05454 0287 -035 -104 041022 022 999 999 03
101600 2356N 07307W 5283 05451 0285 -033 -106 040020 020 999 999 03
101630 2355N 07305W 5281 05454 0284 -032 -103 041021 021 999 999 03
101700 2354N 07302W 5283 05451 0283 -030 -109 047021 022 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah Nimbus, hopefully would fix the models up somewhat. Anyway looking at the WV and its quite obvious the ULL Derek is mentioning, still heading SW and digging, going to make it very difficult to survive I'd have thought if it doesn't lift out soon.
Very poor model performance at upper levels it has to be said!

[wxman57]

Thunderstorms look a little more consolidated this morning. Will post a surface analysis when I get to the office. Probably no surface LLC yet. Conditions aloft really weren't forecast to be too favorable until this afternoon and Thursday. I still think a disorganized Cat 1 into NC between Wilmington and Hatteras early Saturday is a good possibility. Could be Danny this afternoon or tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261027
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 14 20090826
101730 2353N 07300W 5283 05451 0284 -036 -093 049019 019 999 999 03
101800 2352N 07258W 5283 05450 0283 -034 -098 048018 018 999 999 03
101830 2351N 07255W 5283 05450 0283 -033 -107 049017 017 999 999 03
101900 2350N 07253W 5281 05451 0283 -032 -106 046017 017 999 999 03
101930 2349N 07251W 5283 05447 0282 -031 -113 040017 017 999 999 03
102000 2348N 07249W 5282 05452 0284 -032 -116 044017 017 999 999 03
102030 2347N 07246W 5282 05452 0283 -031 -099 045016 017 999 999 03
102100 2346N 07244W 5282 05451 0283 -030 -102 049017 017 999 999 03
102130 2345N 07242W 5283 05450 0283 -030 -119 048014 015 999 999 03
102200 2344N 07240W 5285 05446 0282 -032 -111 043014 015 999 999 03
102230 2343N 07237W 5284 05447 0282 -032 -092 041015 015 999 999 03
102300 2342N 07235W 5284 05447 0283 -033 -118 042013 014 999 999 03
102330 2341N 07233W 5283 05449 0283 -034 -118 050013 014 999 999 03
102400 2340N 07231W 5284 05449 0283 -034 -137 058015 017 999 999 03
102430 2339N 07228W 5285 05446 0283 -034 -138 068016 016 999 999 03
102500 2338N 07226W 5285 05446 0282 -033 -139 067015 015 999 999 03
102530 2337N 07224W 5285 05445 0282 -032 -141 065014 014 999 999 03
102600 2336N 07222W 5285 05445 0281 -034 -128 073016 016 999 999 03
102630 2335N 07219W 5286 05443 0281 -031 -140 068014 014 999 999 03
102700 2334N 07217W 5286 05442 0279 -031 -140 065014 014 999 999 03

[GenuineIndianGuru]

First off, hello; I've been follwing Bill through your great community all last week.
Being from Cape Breton Island, I was a bit on edge. Ofcoarse, and thankfully so, Bill just missed us.
I'm still very wet behind the ears as far as tracking from a technical stand point.
Now, I have a two part question.

How accurate are HWRF,BAMD,TVCN, and AVNO in their field of purpose? (Yep I'm thinking Danny may heading my way!)
Which method has more often the best track record? (no pun intended)

[KWT]

Wxman57 what about the upper low thats digging down just to the west of the system. However I agree this stil lcould end up being a lower end hurricane.

Still given there is quite possibly a closed low now and its quite possible recon finds enough to warrent an upgrade, we shall see!

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261037
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 15 20090826
102730 2333N 07215W 5286 05440 0279 -030 -143 064013 013 999 999 03
102800 2332N 07213W 5285 05443 0280 -031 -140 066013 014 999 999 03
102830 2331N 07210W 5279 05453 0281 -028 -149 065012 012 999 999 03
102900 2330N 07208W 5278 05455 0282 -028 -148 065013 013 999 999 03
102930 2329N 07206W 5278 05455 0281 -027 -150 069013 013 999 999 03
103000 2328N 07204W 5278 05453 0280 -028 -142 070013 013 005 000 03
103030 2327N 07202W 5278 05453 0281 -029 -130 075012 013 006 001 00
103100 2326N 07159W 5278 05452 0280 -033 -118 081011 011 999 999 03
103130 2324N 07157W 5279 05451 0278 -033 -118 079011 011 999 999 03
103200 2323N 07155W 5280 05450 0279 -032 -124 072010 010 999 999 03
103230 2322N 07153W 5280 05448 0278 -033 -122 073010 010 999 999 03
103300 2321N 07151W 5279 05448 0277 -033 -111 074010 010 999 999 03
103330 2319N 07149W 5279 05448 0278 -033 -106 076010 010 999 999 03
103400 2318N 07147W 5280 05449 0278 -032 -109 071011 011 999 999 03
103430 2317N 07145W 5279 05451 0279 -033 -098 073011 011 999 999 03
103500 2315N 07143W 5280 05451 0279 -032 -104 073010 011 999 999 03
103530 2314N 07141W 5280 05448 0279 -034 -091 075009 010 005 000 03
103600 2313N 07139W 5281 05448 0279 -034 -090 072009 009 999 999 03
103630 2312N 07137W 5281 05448 0278 -035 -088 073008 008 999 999 03
103700 2310N 07135W 5281 05447 0278 -035 -089 069008 008 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KWBC 261047
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 16 20090826
103730 2309N 07132W 5280 05448 0278 -034 -091 068008 009 999 999 03
103800 2308N 07130W 5282 05447 0278 -034 -091 064008 008 999 999 03
103830 2306N 07128W 5281 05447 0278 -034 -092 065008 008 999 999 03
103900 2305N 07126W 5282 05446 0277 -031 -093 066008 008 999 999 03
103930 2304N 07124W 5281 05447 0278 -032 -092 057008 008 999 999 03
104000 2303N 07122W 5281 05448 0279 -032 -086 057008 009 999 999 03
104030 2301N 07120W 5281 05447 0278 -033 -085 052009 010 999 999 03
104100 2300N 07118W 5282 05446 0277 -033 -087 048009 009 999 999 03
104130 2259N 07116W 5275 05454 0277 -033 -087 052009 009 999 999 03
104200 2257N 07114W 5275 05456 0277 -035 -085 064008 008 999 999 03
104230 2256N 07112W 5275 05456 0278 -035 -083 062008 008 999 999 03
104300 2255N 07110W 5275 05456 0278 -036 -084 058008 008 999 999 03
104330 2253N 07108W 5275 05456 0278 -036 -082 061007 007 999 999 03
104400 2252N 07105W 5275 05457 0279 -035 -083 064007 007 999 999 03
104430 2251N 07103W 5275 05457 0280 -034 -087 076008 008 999 999 03
104500 2250N 07101W 5283 05445 0277 -035 -078 078008 008 999 999 03
104530 2248N 07059W 5384 05291 0267 -023 -075 085006 006 999 999 03
104600 2247N 07057W 5481 05150 0259 -011 -066 090006 007 999 999 03
104630 2245N 07055W 5554 05044 0069 -002 -062 090006 007 999 999 03
104700 2244N 07053W 5704 04830 0063 +014 -054 096005 005 999 999 03

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

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