ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

I saw this mornings JB discussion and he is less bullish today with this system than yesterday. I can't post the discussion here because it is on his paid site

[Frank2]

That Meteosat IR photo needs to go - it makes a thunderstorm look like a hurricane (lol)!!!

Anyway, far out - that ULL/TUTT feature is doing it's duty (and note the other stronger ULL to the east of 97L that's moving west)...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

looks like 2010 is the year of the ULL...

[weatherwindow]

altho i may have missed this...what is the forcast movement of the upper level low..i have heard the word "meandering" used...but do we have any valid forecasts over the next 48 hours?

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic indicating the place to look for a "center". Turning is evident on visible loops there.

[Frank2]

Perhaps an eddy - it won't last long in that hostile environment...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010072112, , BEST, 0, 200N, 700W, 30, 1013, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[wxman57]

Perhaps an eddy - it won't last long in that hostile environment...

Looks like the wave axis there. Don't think it's an eddy. Look for convection to redevelop associated with this feature today. First on the east side, then wrapping around the north side as shear slowly relaxes.

[abajan]

...Tropical waves just don't stop moving...

Of course, you meant to state that "Tropical waves don't just stop moving", correct? The first statement means that, no matter what, tropical waves always keep moving while the second means that tropical waves can stop but there must be something that would cause them to do so.

[srainhoutx]

Things appear to be on schedule regarding development. NHC as well as our Mets have been saying Thursday all along. As wxman57 has pointed out, there certainly is some spin to the W of the convection. I suspect this disturbance will look different (better organized) by this time tomorrow morning.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think the NHC will drop it to 40-50% by 11am.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Tropics Guy]

Shear & dry air still winning out for now, though convection should build back up during the day, esp on the east side................

TG

[Extremeweatherguy]

Things appear to be on schedule regarding development. NHC as well as our Mets have been saying Thursday all along. As wxman57 has pointed out, there certainly is some spin to the W of the convection. I suspect this disturbance will look different (better organized) by this time tomorrow morning.

I agree. I think 97L is slowly trying to get better organized. Still looks ragged and sheared this morning for sure, but if the shear can relax throughout the day, then I see no reason why that spin wxman57 pointed out can't grow into a LLC and then eventually become Bonnie. I am skeptical of this ever reaching hurricane status if it does develop, but I still think a tropical storm could be in the cards for parts of Florida later this week.


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[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC will drop it to 40-50% by 11am.

TWOs are issued at 2 am, 8 am, 2 pm, & 8 pm.

[wxman57]

...Tropical waves just don't stop moving...

Of course, you meant to state that "Tropical waves don't just stop moving", correct? The first statement means that, no matter what, tropical waves always keep moving while the second means that tropical waves can stop but there must be something that would cause them to do so.

Of course, my brain is a little lysdexic sometimes.

[Bocadude85]

Perhaps an eddy - it won't last long in that hostile environment...

Looks like the wave axis there. Don't think it's an eddy. Look for convection to redevelop associated with this feature today. First on the east side, then wrapping around the north side as shear slowly relaxes.

wxman57 do you still think this will develop into something before reaching Florida? What do you think the chances of development are?

[cycloneye]

Here is the real story about why 97L has not organized. As HURAKAN said earlier,97L is in the middle between upper lows and not to forget the dry air.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe it will be more fun to name ULL. We have like 5 or more in the Atlantic right now! lol