WFUS53 KEAX 251751
TOREAX
MOC053-089-159-251830-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0033.110525T1751Z-110525T1830Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 130 PM CDT
* AT 1249 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 7
MILES NORTH OF SMITHTON...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SEDALIA. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PILOT GROVE...CLIFTON CITY...BLACKWATER AND LAMINE.
THIS WILL IMPACT
I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 88 AND 104.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!
&&
LAT...LON 3907 9290 3891 9268 3870 9308 3879 9319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 229DEG 19KT 3879 9309
HAIL <.75IN
$$
HAWBLITZEL
Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
New watch for warm front area cells. Probs 50/20.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CINCINNATI OHIO TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TOLEDO OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW
369...WW 370...WW 371...
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE WAVES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT POLEWARD THROUGH
NRN OHIO...ALLOWING A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/I.E. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/ TO DEVELOP NWD. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
CINCINNATI OHIO TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TOLEDO OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW
369...WW 370...WW 371...
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE WAVES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT POLEWARD THROUGH
NRN OHIO...ALLOWING A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/I.E. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/ TO DEVELOP NWD. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
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Prairie Girl
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:07 pm
- Location: ILX
TORNADO WARNING
ILC049-173-251900-
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0033.110525T1810Z-110525T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
110 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 200 PM CDT.
* AT 107 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COWDEN...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF SHELBYVILLE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKEWOOD...BEECHER CITY...SHUMWAY...STEWARDSON...WINDSOR...MODE...
CLARKSBURG...STRASBURG...SIGEL AND TROWBRIDGE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3913 8881 3921 8882 3921 8898 3926 8901
3948 8861 3947 8858 3945 8858 3945 8851
3944 8847 3922 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 246DEG 34KT 3922 8886
$$
BARKER
ILC049-173-251900-
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0033.110525T1810Z-110525T1900Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
110 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 200 PM CDT.
* AT 107 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COWDEN...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF SHELBYVILLE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKEWOOD...BEECHER CITY...SHUMWAY...STEWARDSON...WINDSOR...MODE...
CLARKSBURG...STRASBURG...SIGEL AND TROWBRIDGE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3913 8881 3921 8882 3921 8898 3926 8901
3948 8861 3947 8858 3945 8858 3945 8851
3944 8847 3922 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 246DEG 34KT 3922 8886
$$
BARKER
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Tomorrow doesn't look too bad at this point.
SPC AC 251712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.
FROM THE CNTRL GULF STATES TO UPSTATE NY...
...EASTERN U.S...
STRONG CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DAY1 WILL EJECT EWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY 27/00Z AS STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO
WILL ENSURE THAT BROAD SSWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...NWD INTO
UPSTATE NY...AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ZONE WHERE ORGANIZED
SEVERE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NOTED...BOTH WITHIN THE STRONGEST REGION OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI...AND SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NCNTRL
GULF STATES. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ROUGHLY 150-200 MI
DOWNSTREAM FROM GA...NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...LAPSE RATES WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY NOT BE THAT STEEP.
GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
UPSTATE NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY WIND SHIFT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. EVEN SO...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
FARTHER WEST...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL DEFINITELY BE STRONGER FORCED
BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...DEEP SWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40KT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE CONCERN WITH STRONGER BOW STRUCTURES...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY SHEARED AND POTENTIALLY MORE SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE DURING THE DAYTIME PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
VERY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS AS A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT EJECTS ACROSS MT/WY
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS REGION. A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SERN MT...SWD INTO NERN CO
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS FORCING INTERACTS WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES/SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SBCAPE COULD RANGE FROM 500-900 J/KG WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
DEFINITELY SUPPORT DEEP STORM ROTATION. ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...WEAK INSTABILITY
WARRANTS MAINTAINING 5% PROBS PRIMARILY FOR HAIL.
..DARROW.. 05/25/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1825Z (2:25PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 251712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.
FROM THE CNTRL GULF STATES TO UPSTATE NY...
...EASTERN U.S...
STRONG CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DAY1 WILL EJECT EWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY 27/00Z AS STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO
WILL ENSURE THAT BROAD SSWLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...NWD INTO
UPSTATE NY...AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ZONE WHERE ORGANIZED
SEVERE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE NOTED...BOTH WITHIN THE STRONGEST REGION OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI...AND SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NCNTRL
GULF STATES. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ROUGHLY 150-200 MI
DOWNSTREAM FROM GA...NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...LAPSE RATES WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY NOT BE THAT STEEP.
GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
UPSTATE NY WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY WIND SHIFT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. EVEN SO...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
FARTHER WEST...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL DEFINITELY BE STRONGER FORCED
BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...DEEP SWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40KT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EVEN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE CONCERN WITH STRONGER BOW STRUCTURES...THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY SHEARED AND POTENTIALLY MORE SUPERCELLULAR IN
NATURE DURING THE DAYTIME PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
VERY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS AS A FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT EJECTS ACROSS MT/WY
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS REGION. A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SERN MT...SWD INTO NERN CO
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS FORCING INTERACTS WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES/SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THIS REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SBCAPE COULD RANGE FROM 500-900 J/KG WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
DEFINITELY SUPPORT DEEP STORM ROTATION. ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...WEAK INSTABILITY
WARRANTS MAINTAINING 5% PROBS PRIMARILY FOR HAIL.
..DARROW.. 05/25/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1825Z (2:25PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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-
Prairie Girl
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:07 pm
- Location: ILX
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Thanks for advice, Crazy - very much a novice here; it's appreciated!
0 likes
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Another tragic and devastating day unfolding. Please be safe and heed warnings....be ready to act. This day could be worse than previous days. 15 tornadoes reported to the SPC already.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...
VALID 251828Z - 252000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369 CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 369 WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
EXPAND NNEWD ACROSS THE VALID PART OF TORNADO WATCH 369. A LOCAL
EXTENSION HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH LOCAL WFO.
A LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS ONGOING FROM JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY NEAR
A 996 MB SFC LOW EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO ALONG THE WRN EDGE
OF STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CNTRL
MO. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL CONTAIN A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST SWWD INTO SW MO WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
QUITE STRONG BENEATH THE NRN EDGE OF AN EJECTION MID-LEVEL JET.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NRN MO...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS NOW IN
PLACE WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE. THIS PART OF THE WARM SECTOR IS BENEATH THE NERN EDGE OF
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE QUITE COLD. 500 MB TEMPS OF
-15C TO -16C ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS
ARE BACKED TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN MO SUGGESTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40229204 40589376 40359453 39819472 39289440 38999356
38549318 37349331 36889261 36889213 37309135 38219104
39309116 39569131 40229204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...
VALID 251828Z - 252000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369 CONTINUES.
A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 369 WITH TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
EXPAND NNEWD ACROSS THE VALID PART OF TORNADO WATCH 369. A LOCAL
EXTENSION HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH LOCAL WFO.
A LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS ONGOING FROM JUST EAST OF KANSAS CITY NEAR
A 996 MB SFC LOW EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO ALONG THE WRN EDGE
OF STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS CNTRL
MO. THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL CONTAIN A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. A THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST SWWD INTO SW MO WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
QUITE STRONG BENEATH THE NRN EDGE OF AN EJECTION MID-LEVEL JET.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NRN MO...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS NOW IN
PLACE WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG RANGE. THIS PART OF THE WARM SECTOR IS BENEATH THE NERN EDGE OF
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE QUITE COLD. 500 MB TEMPS OF
-15C TO -16C ALONG WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS
ARE BACKED TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN MO SUGGESTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.
..BROYLES.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40229204 40589376 40359453 39819472 39289440 38999356
38549318 37349331 36889261 36889213 37309135 38219104
39309116 39569131 40229204
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NERN TX...NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251853Z - 252100Z
AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH ALL TYPES OF ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 80
PERCENT.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE
DRYLINE ROUGHLY FROM DEQ TO CRS TO DRT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/CNTRL TX...WITH INCREASING TCU NOTED NEAR CRS. BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHETHER
TSTM INITIATION OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...GLANCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS/WRN MO IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPING THE THERMAL/MOIST AXES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KT /PER MODIFIED 18Z SHV RAOB/...SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION IS QUITE LIKELY WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE W/SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL MAINTAIN
LARGE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR/LA.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33949435 34169398 34259311 33809197 33309198 32739266
31899416 31669511 31649599 31909627 32439570 33949435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NERN TX...NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251853Z - 252100Z
AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH ALL TYPES OF ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z IS 80
PERCENT.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE
DRYLINE ROUGHLY FROM DEQ TO CRS TO DRT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY/CNTRL TX...WITH INCREASING TCU NOTED NEAR CRS. BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHETHER
TSTM INITIATION OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...GLANCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KS/WRN MO IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPING THE THERMAL/MOIST AXES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KT /PER MODIFIED 18Z SHV RAOB/...SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION IS QUITE LIKELY WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DESPITE W/SWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL MAINTAIN
LARGE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AR/LA.
..GRAMS.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33949435 34169398 34259311 33809197 33309198 32739266
31899416 31669511 31649599 31909627 32439570 33949435
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
I post when it affects people...this one is moving towards Bloomington Indiana...home of IU.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
PETERSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PLAINVILLE AND CANNELBURG AROUND 310 PM EDT...
ELNORA...WEST BOGGS LAKE AND LOOGOOTEE AROUND 315 PM EDT...
ODON AND BURNS CITY AROUND 320 PM EDT...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
PETERSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PLAINVILLE AND CANNELBURG AROUND 310 PM EDT...
ELNORA...WEST BOGGS LAKE AND LOOGOOTEE AROUND 315 PM EDT...
ODON AND BURNS CITY AROUND 320 PM EDT...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...370...
VALID 251932Z - 252030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369...370...CONTINUES.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE RETREATING
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO AND WEST
CENTRAL IL. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO THE NORTH OF
BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOCALLY ENHANCED
VORTICITY ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY AIDING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK SURFACE
MESOLOW NEAR COU...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STORMS NOW OVER
AUDRAIN/MONTGOMERY/LINCOLN COUNTIES MO ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
ROTATION WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST IN THIS ZONE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS DISCRETE STORMS FORM TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE STL METRO AREA.
..HART.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39059197 39359216 39829175 39749073 39489009 39068969
38629013 38859127 39059197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...370...
VALID 251932Z - 252030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369...370...CONTINUES.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE RETREATING
SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO AND WEST
CENTRAL IL. STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO THE NORTH OF
BOUNDARY...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE YIELDING MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LOCALLY ENHANCED
VORTICITY ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY AIDING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO HINTS AT A WEAK SURFACE
MESOLOW NEAR COU...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STORMS NOW OVER
AUDRAIN/MONTGOMERY/LINCOLN COUNTIES MO ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
ROTATION WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST IN THIS ZONE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS DISCRETE STORMS FORM TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK ACROSS THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE STL METRO AREA.
..HART.. 05/25/2011
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 39059197 39359216 39829175 39749073 39489009 39068969
38629013 38859127 39059197
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
$$
MOC007-139-163-251945-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110525T1945Z/
MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
232 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AUDRAIN
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL
245 PM CDT...
AT 230 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLFLOWER...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MONTGOMERY CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWLING GREEN...VANDALIA...NEW HARTFORD...CURRYVILLE...
SPENCERBURG...MIDDLETOWN...ASHLEY AND ST. CLEMENT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3936 9112 3914 9124 3914 9126 3912 9126
3905 9129 3895 9136 3904 9153 3932 9150
3932 9144 3941 9145 3947 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 210DEG 29KT 3904 9135
$$
GLASS
MOC007-139-163-251945-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0076.000000T0000Z-110525T1945Z/
MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
232 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL AUDRAIN
COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL
245 PM CDT...
AT 230 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLFLOWER...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MONTGOMERY CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWLING GREEN...VANDALIA...NEW HARTFORD...CURRYVILLE...
SPENCERBURG...MIDDLETOWN...ASHLEY AND ST. CLEMENT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3936 9112 3914 9124 3914 9126 3912 9126
3905 9129 3895 9136 3904 9153 3932 9150
3932 9144 3941 9145 3947 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 210DEG 29KT 3904 9135
$$
GLASS
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday
Probs are 50/30.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOLINE
ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES WEST OF ALTON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...WW 369...WW
370...WW 371...WW 372...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS --INCLUDING TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS-- OVER NERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVING INTO NRN MO.
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
THROUGH THE 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
GIVEN VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND AMBIENT VORTICITY INVOF
WARM FRONT...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...MEAD
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOLINE
ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES WEST OF ALTON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...WW 369...WW
370...WW 371...WW 372...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS --INCLUDING TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS-- OVER NERN MO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVING INTO NRN MO.
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
THROUGH THE 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
GIVEN VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND AMBIENT VORTICITY INVOF
WARM FRONT...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...MEAD
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