ATL: IRENE - Models

[Blown Away]

The TVCN will lead you to the truth!

Ha....if it only was a real model....

I see I must convert you to the ways of the TVCN, it's more than a model it's a consensus of great guidance young doubter! Check out the HPC 7 day and click the back arrow to see previous days, it follows the TVCN. Slowly we will release you from dependence on the evil EURO.

[StarmanHDB]

I'm getting kind of tired of the "we don't even have a center yet" comments, we know that but as other memebers have said we're just watching run after run and talking about it, that's the point of this thread, isn't it?

Great point Macrocane! It is funny that up until this particular thread, I never paid much attention to models, but this particular thread has definitely captured my interest....a great way of LEARNING about the mechanics behind long range modeling! Fantastic!

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL: Keeps this as a wave through the Caribbean approaching the Yucatan

12Z HWRF: A bit more west on this run and sends it through Hispaniola then WNW towards SE Bahamas as a strengthening system.

Great consensus from our hurricane models

I think the HWRF is too bullish...

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian heading wnw in the southern gulf ridge over head

[dwsqos2]

Euro seems to be stronger in the short term.

[clfenwi]

UKMET has picked back up on it

WTNT80 EGRR 191800



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2011


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.3N 66.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2011 15.3N 66.0W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2011 15.8N 68.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2011 17.5N 72.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2011 18.0N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.08.2011 18.4N 76.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2011 19.2N 78.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.08.2011 20.0N 81.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2011 21.0N 83.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

That final position is just south/southwest of Isla de Juventud, Cuba.

[DESTRUCTION5]

UKMET has picked back up on it

WTNT80 EGRR 191800



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.08.2011


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.3N 66.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.08.2011 15.3N 66.0W WEAK
12UTC 22.08.2011 15.8N 68.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2011 17.5N 72.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2011 18.0N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.08.2011 18.4N 76.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2011 19.2N 78.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.08.2011 20.0N 81.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2011 21.0N 83.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

That final position is just south/southwest of Isla de Juventud, Cuba.

"STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY"
They should call this the Yogi Model..

[gatorcane]

Euro seems to be stronger in the short term.

12Z Euro crashes it into Hispaniola.....

Looks like Hispaniola is shredding it apart.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 120 hours. Large break in the ridge over Florida and the Eastern Seaboard....but the system is still down near Hispaniola, and relatively shallow. The low is deepening N of the Great Lakes...

[Ivanhater]

Euro looks gulf bound

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NAM 12Z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

[JPmia]

Euro looks gulf bound

looks like maybe eastern gulf

[wxman57]

Yeah, 168 hrs has it in the FL Keys:

[JPmia]

.. What I find interesting is that both the GFS and EURO keep showing a relatively decent system even though it is crossing Hispainola AND Cuba. There must be some pretty good upper conditions keeping this thing going:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

[TwisterFanatic]

:roll: .. What I find interesting is that both the GFS and EURO keep showing a relatively decent system even though it is crossing Hispainola AND Cuba. There must be some pretty good upper conditions keeping this thing going:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

12z GFS went south of Hispaniola, and just clipped the west part of Cuba.

[wxman57]

Near Orlando Saturday morning on the Euro. Note the 2 other storms in the Atlantic to the east.

[weatherguy2]

Then up to SW GA (ridge holds strong):

[Ivanhater]

216 hours..rides up the west coast of Florida into the Big bend

[Ivanhater]

Heads NNW from the Keys into Central Georgia

[Ivanhater]

Trough does not pick it up..just induces a weakness for it to travel NNW toward the eastern Florida Panhandle into interior Georgia. Interesting few days!